Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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00z Best Track
AL, 06, 2010082300, , BEST, 0, 140N, 353W, 40, 1003, TS
Sooooo...Florida dodges another bullet?
AL, 06, 2010082300, , BEST, 0, 140N, 353W, 40, 1003, TS
Good idea, yeah that would be much easier to deploy without messing my windows. By the way Patrap's 2010 preparedness page is pretty good if you haven't seen it.
No way this is Florida bound.
70mph in 3 hours?
This isnt going through any type of RI. Its just blown up some cold convection near the center. IF RI was going to occur, the center would have to be in the middle of the convection which it clearly isnt.
Not sure why a lot of people are getting so excited.
Good. HOWEVER, 75 million people live in the New England-Washington DC corridor, called the "Megalopolis"...
Daniele is looking good this evening.
Building convection through the end of DMin too.
Good thing I did not say it was gonna struggle because of Dry Air!
LOL.
Yeah.
Im fairly confident that this is still headed out to sea.
Since it hasn't happened, we wont know.
Sorry Florida is already retired, no more please.
All you have to do is ask me about it!! Don't forget, I was born on Long Island. Just won't tell you the year.
it amazes me how people ask this question, like we actually know
Yeah!
LOL
22/2345 UTC 13.7N 35.6W T3.0/3.0 DANIELLE
Yup!
interesting
AHa- so I could ask you what people asked me after Katrina-- Why do you people live there?
But I won't.. I'll just ask- Well what do you want to share about it- if anything?
Nice.
Yeah, I have and Patrap does have an excellant page. You asked for the "not normal" stuff...
BTW, forgot to mention: Since you will be running a generator make sure you get carbon monoxide (CO)/fire detectors. You will be amazed at how the generator CO gets into the house. I had one go off in a room that was on the other side of the house from the generator. Every power outage someone dies and/or gets really sick from CO from a generator. Avoid using "fire" for light at bedtime if you can. (candles,oil lamps, mosquito candles, etc..)
Definitely stronger!
I know I corrected it lol
was thinking 13.7 was the 5pm coordinate
Not sure why you seem to assume that I am getting excited. I'm saying IT CAN happen didn't say it WILL happen.
Let's blame this unpredictable path of Danielle on the "Age of Aquarius" and "let the sunshine, let the sunshine in"!!
Link
Wasn't it called Long Peninsula then? ;)
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