Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Spaghetti Models.
so either recurve out to sea or east coast landfall are the two most likely scnarios at this time?
Now you've done it. Bet we see one soon.
Been watching the nexrad and seeing that spin as we have had storms popping up on the east coast all day.
lets see how far west the new model will shift .
this ts has more tricks to come in play and no one one can call anyshots on her as of now imo
wnw close to 40w
Thx Destin Jeff..
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 13:24:59 N Lon : 35:08:25 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.4 3.4
this says we have a strong TS
45 knots is about 52mph
the second one may be possible but highly doubtful on Danielle getting that far south
Doesn't look organized on satellite imagery. Gradual stregthening can be anticipated.
what do the nhc ues when the storm is this far out
So, the model guidance as a whole is suggesting a possible risk to Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes and potentially the US East Coast, especially the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. With that said, it is still very, very early in the game and this storm poses no threat to any land masses for at least the next 5 to 7 days. One thing I will be watching for over the next several days is to see how far north it gets in latitude. If this stays at or south of 23 North Latitude, then we may have a real problem on our hands in terms of landfall risk to the US East Coast
satellite estimates
ok oh is that X TD 5 back in the gulf for a other try?
not sure if it is or not
Looks like it develops the wave after Danielle. Danielle is becoming powerful already.
ok
==================
2010AUG22 211500
CI: 2.9
Pressure: 1001.
knots: 43.0
T2.8
Adjusted T2.5
Raw T2.5
Weakening Flag ON '
Rapid Weakening OFF
Cloud Top Temps: -60.0C
Scene: Irregular Central Dense Overcast
---
At least the shear scene is gone now.
Because of dry-ish air, as well as decent wind shear.
yes it will or vary near it
Seriously? Whatever it is, it's been pounding us!
Yep.
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