Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
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it is now 4-1-0
ah NHC notes a turn toward the WNW on satellite, interesting
CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY
3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY.
Interesting.
LOL!
72hrs
Modified: And NHC is very good, and getting better by the year, out to 72hrs.
For that, just look at how narrow the cone now is compared to 5 years ago at that time.
The cone is 67% chance based on the past 5 years of forecasting.
Please don't let that happen.
Two words I hate now....
(1)Fish.
(2)West.
look at the last few miles of movement you will see it
Yes, but there will be another one
#1 should be poof. -.-
I wonder if we could see a yellow circle with the wave at the coast by tomorrow.
strong showers and thunderstorms...with very cold cloud tops to near
-85c...have recently formed in association with the cyclone...and
the low-level center is now embedded beneath the convective canopy.
Dvorak final T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are now both 2.5...35
kt...and the most recent 3-hour average ADT from UW-CIMSS is 2.7.
The depression is therefore upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.
Given the northward movement of the center of Danielle through much
of the day...the estimated initial motion is 310/10. However...
recent satellite images suggest that the center is turning back
toward the west-northwest...and this motion is expected to continue
for the next 72 hours as the system is steered by the subtropical
ridge to its north. A break in the ridge by day 3 could allow the
cyclone to turn toward the northwest...but Danielle is expected to
slow down as it approaches a new ridge to its north on day 5.
Viewing: 751 - 801
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