The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No, no - it's don't DRINK and blog - hard to get all the liquid off the screen or out of the keyboard, LOL.
lol
I didn't realize the NHC went back to 10% on it. It had been at 20%.
well dont get to comfortable with the models they keep changing and until there is a well defined low everything is truley just IF's it still to far out undeveloped etc etc etc but it is interesting to see them pulling it north
theres a disturbance off africa that the NHC should begin highlighting pretty soon.... preferably today... as most models develop it within 72 hours. Overall activity should begin to really ramp up over the next 84 hours or so.
True... don't know the precise numbers but the information on this site was sufficient for me to decide to wait an extra day before leaving... which went doing nothing
Edit: "This is the song that never ends..."
Furthermore, the CMC model is a major hurricane in the Atlantic, the GFS is also a major hurricane
By the way, can someone please post the link to see the European model?.
Give it a couple of minutes to load...Link
Really!! thanks for the sit rep ill check that out lol...sorry couldnt resist
kaos theory refrence nice!
LOL....(cleaning spewed coffee off the key board)
LMAO
Spilled a smoothie on my keyboard last week....LMAO It still works too.
Quiet before the storm.....s
9 Specks,,2 FLounder's, assorted mudcats..and a sunburn.
Smarta$$!!!LOL!
Got my coffee and pecan swirls. WOOHOO!
Great to see you as always. I have a quick question for you if I may. Given the ridge of high pressure in the atlantic, do you forecast this to move even more westward? The reason I ask is because as we have seen so far this season, several upper level troughs have swooped down and eroded the ridge eastward causing the northward turn into the Atlantic. What is the reason so many of these troughs have formed and do you see them stopping at some point?
I know you mentioned that no two seasons are alike but I do not recall this many troughs and ULL’s in the 04, 05 and 08 seasons. Thank you as always.
owl be Bock..
I'll trade you my weather for a pecan swirl.
Question, does anyone know which satellites NOAA uses to come up with the SST charts?
For the second wave?
morning all
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