The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave
A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.
Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.
Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".
Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.
Jeff Masters
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Great...my house get's blown away or I freeze my airsesss off in FLORIDA like I did last year...If I didn't know you wuz the man I would beg for a second opinion on that diagnosis...lol
Wouldn't warm warm ocean temps in the deep tropics during winter cause a lot of sinking air over the continent? Wouldn't that call for more of a dry winter in some places especially the south to northeast?
Okay! :D
ok, well that is cool....
Night Man!!
i dont have any help4u on thatone
It’s now the 18th of August, a few weeks past the typical date that activity really ramps up across the Atlantic Basin, and there are no named storms to be found. Are all of the forecasts for a very active season going to bust? I don’t think so, and I’ll attempt to explain why. First of all, let’s look at our best analog year for comparing to the current setup across the tropics - 1998. So far, 2010 is progressing very much like 1998 as far as the current La Niña conditions across the Pacific as well as the general atmospheric flow patterns across the Atlantic Basin. In fact, 1998 is nearly a dead ringer for what we’re seeing across the tropics right now.
In 1998, there were 14 named storms, 10 of which were hurricanes. Note that it’s a coincidence that the 2010 list of names is mostly the same list that was used in 1998, twelve years ago. There are 6 years of Atlantic Basin names that rotate each season. The first hurricane of 1998, Category 3 Bonnie with 115 mph winds, did not form until August 19th. It struck the coast of North Carolina late on August 26th. In 2010, the first hurricane of the season, Category 2 Alex, formed in late June. The second hurricane of the 1998 season, Danielle, did not form until August 24th. But after then, the floodgates were opened and the hurricanes kept coming through November. Category 2 Georges struck Mississippi. Category 5 Mitch killed tens of thousands of people in Central America in late October. Hurricane Nicole formed on the 24th of November and lasted until the 2nd of December.
The image above is a snapshot of the activity across the Atlantic Basin on September 26th of 1998. There were actually four hurricanes active at the same time. That date is still over five weeks away, plenty of time for quite a bit of development. And we’re seeing strong signals that the tropics are about to come alive.
As I mentioned in last week’s blog posting, the season typically ramps up quite quickly in early August. That didn’t happen (yet) this August. The reason for the delayed start this August is that there was a burst of dry, stable air that flowed off the west coast of Africa in late July. This resulted in a stabilizing of the atmosphere across the deep tropics. Hurricanes can’t develop in a stable environment. The graphic below clearly illustrates the drop in instability that occurred in late July (blue line). But just in the past few days, instability is rising sharply, up to the “normal” line. I suspect it’s going to rise to above normal levels by next week. The result may be a burst of development over the next few weeks.
For the past week, most of the global computer models have been forecasting the development of between 2 and 4 named storms starting this coming weekend. Below is a one-week forecast from the American “GFS” model. The map is valid Wednesday, August 25th. Note what appears to be a tropical storm forming off the U.S. East Coast early next week and what looks like a strong hurricane impacting the northeast Caribbean. A weaker (developing?) low is indicated east of the Caribbean on this date. And it’s not just the American model forecasting such development. The European and Canadian models are also quite bullish on significant development over the next week or two.
Finally, let’s take a look at the sea surface temperatures across the main development region (MDR) that extends from the eastern Caribbean to near the west coast of Africa. The graphic below indicates that temperatures are at record levels, even higher than 2005 when 28 named storms developed. So there is plenty of heat available for intensification once development occurs. There is so much heat content available that I’d be surprised if we didn’t see at least one Category 5 hurricane develop in the coming months.
The bottom line is that our analog seasons suggested a late start to the real action. And the signals we’re seeing out there across the tropics today indicate that the tropics are about to come alive with development. Will the named storms total the 17 that we predicted earlier this month? Possibly. But with the later start than we expected, that total may be closer to 15 or 16 named storms. Just remember, it’s not how many that form that counts, it’s where they strike that makes all the difference. The steering flow we’re seeing still indicates a high impact threat to the central to northeast Gulf Coast and the southeast U.S. Coast.
by Chris Hebert
& i posting agin people come up in here later at nigth..
haha
La Nina should actually keep the south and southeast warmer this year. It's just that the cold fronts we do get will likely be very strong in nature.
Warm water promotes rising air, not subsidence. That's why the upward MJO has been in our basin so long this year.
Yeah over the ocean where its warm.
Are you suggesting hurricanes through winter?
No because then vertical shear takes over, as it normally does.
Although a December hurricane is certainly possible this year.
I could believe a hurricane in December.
yea if they move maryland out to the middle of the Atlantic
Which is why the cold fronts we get will have no trouble at all pulling up oceanic moisture.
Well yeah that would be the case if the waters can stay warm close to the coast. I hope we get another big winter this year. Last winter was fun!
Tell me about it. lol
I actually saw snow last year. Twice. And I'm in freaking Louisiana of all places. Southeast Louisiana at that.
LOL
The ECMWF still forecasts a negative NAO, so we'll see. It's always difficult to make accurate predictions with such obvious discrepancies in the respective forecasts of the models.
That's when one is forced to analyze the synoptic scale pattern, to see if it compliments a particular forecast.
like a positive
enviroment
seriously!!! Amen brotha!! BOOORRRRIIINNNG!
And that would be more of a global pattern analysis?
In the EATL, yes.
Lack of patience, etc.
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