Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.
Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.
Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0
Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."
See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.
Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.
The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.
Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:
This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."
She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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1996 Hurricane Bertha
1996 Hurricane Hortense
1998 Hurricane Georges
2004 Tropical storm Jeanne
Not too many. I moved to Puerto Rico in 1996 and thought that was a typical year. We have been blessed since Georges, although Jeanne knocked out water and power for a week. It was a very strong tropical storm when it hit us.
LOL
We could also hope for a week of hot-sun. Snow would be interesting though, and the way 2010 is going I would not be surprised at anything!
We did have hail some years ago, so why not snow?
Good Morning! What are your thoughts? East coast? GOM? (Hope not!) :)
exTD5 has turned from heading north and east, and most recently has been heading due south.
- Date - - Time - - - - Location
14Aug 06amUTC - 32.5N86.5W
14Aug 12pmUTC - 32.8N85.8W
14Aug 06pmUTC - 33.0N85.5W
15Aug 12amUTC - 32.8N85.5W
15Aug 06amGMT - 32.5N85.5W
Copy&paste 32.5N86.5W-32.8N85.8W, 32.5N86.5W, 32.8N85.8W-33.0N85.5W, 33.0N85.5W-32.8N85.5W, 32.8N85.5W-32.5N85.5W, msy, apf into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
Link
sciguy
| Hurricane Central
SciGuy
A science blog with Eric Berger
September 04, 2008
Why Ike's less likely to visit the Gulf.
Hurricane Ike remains an incredibly dangerous cyclone this morning with 145 mph winds, although the storm should encounter some wind shear in a day or two and weaken moderately.
However, by the time it reaches the vicinity of the Bahamas in five days' time and approaches Florida, it should re-strengthen to near category 4 status.
The latest models, shown below, portray three potential scenarios for Ike, two of which are disastrous for the United States.
The scenarios include:
1. South Florida strike: I spoke with a hurricane scientist I know in Miami yesterday and he was quite concerned about this possibility. The models certainly support this, and the heat potential of the waters near the Bahamas and Florida is quite high enough to support a major hurricane.
2. Re-Curve into the Atlantic: The GFS model has been advertising this solution for a couple of days now. The Bahamas would still likely get hammered, but the mainland United States would be spared. This scenario is most consistent with the climatology outlined below.
3. Northeast U.S. Coast: As bad as a strike on Miami would be, a strike on New York is worse. (How do you evacuate 4 million people from New York?). A major hurricane striking New York remains a low threat, high consequence scenario, even with Ike. But the climatology below suggests its possible, and some models have been hinting at such a scenario.
The official forecast track allows for all of the possibilities above.
What about the Gulf of Mexico? It's still entirely possible Ike could reach the Gulf, but such an eventuality seems historically unlikely at this time. Between 1900 and 2006, 95 storms have passed within 150 nautical miles of its present location.
Of the 95 storms, only seven have struck the United States. Just one, Hurricane Four of the 1901 Atlantic season, reached the Gulf of Mexico. It hit Grand Isle, Louisiana on Aug. 14, producing levee breaches which flooded New Orleans.
Living here in Mobile, we have had our share of storms/hurricanes. Though I find them incredibly fascinating and somewhat awe inspiring....I like my air conditioning too much to want one to come this way! (Among other reasons like property damage and loss of life of course...) ;)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
18N19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
13W-21W.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N53W TO 13N51W TO 8N46W MOVING W 20
KT. WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 15N-16N
BETWEEN 50W-52W.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
9N-10N BETWEEN 75W-77W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
ALONG 92W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 89W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 9N30W 9N50W 10N61W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 54W-57W.
East PAC.....20% on 1.
Cent PAC.....near 0% on 1.
West PAC.....nothing.
Indian Ocean.nothing.
It's over land now. Tracking the remains of TD5 over SW Georgia.
In red we have of course ex-TD5.
In yellow we have a persistent 500MB pocket of higher vorticity E of FL (just like ex-TD5 used to be) and under almost the same atmospheric conditions. There's a potential for brief organization with this disturbance.
August 13, 2010
As we enter the heart of hurricane season, it's dead quiet out there
Link
Had to look that one up. I did not remember it.
That thing just won't go away will it....
Off topic, but I wish they's hurry up and open the Gulf waters for commercial fishing, shrimping and oystering. I'm ready to make some gumbo without paying 100 bucks for imported junk. The waters off D. Island are as clean as a whistle.
Great post! A perfect reminder for everyone, especially the model worshipers, of how little we know and how unpredictable the weather still is. Hurricane season is no time to be smug with your science. By the way, I'm finishing up reading "Issac's Storm" by Eric Larson. It's a very good account of the great 1900 storm that hit Galveston. I highly recommend it!
That reads like an honest..straight-forward synopsis of what was called for..what has happened up til now...and what could happen the remainder of the season.
Thanks. Been wanting to read that. I was thinking that we still have so much to learn too.
I know! The downcasting will come to a halt its just a matter of time.....
??
What's left of the COC isn't far from IKE.
Yes. He could be right. But he was going by what had happened up til his article about Ike (climatology) too. We'll see in the end. Hope he's right. I love my A/C too. Lol. That's why I run. :D
It began as a subtropical storm north of Puerto Rico on December 10. After hitting the Dominican Republic it transitioned to a tropical storm and exited Hispaniola. It was the deadliest post season storm killing 40 people (this is aaccording to Wikipedia)
For me it's no power and the cranking of a chainsaw......and generator
Thanks, that what I get for jumping blindly in to the blog.
True. And since about 60% of all TCs are birthed from TWs, if all those waves turn into something, we could end up with 50 more TCs!!!
Yes, I'm kidding...but I still feel the final numbers are going to be higher than many are calling for...
Looks to me like it's on top of you about to slip in to the Gulf...
Basically what is the technical name for it now according to NOAA? Like on the ftp site.
I notice we have nothing on this weather on the Tropical page of WU where we normally have WU model runs displayed, ect. All I see is invest90 in the epac.
Storms/hurricanes I have been through: Hurricanes Hugo, Georges, Hortense, and Bertha; Tropical Storm Jeanne. All were bad in one way or another, especially with the lack of power and water for weeks.
Thanks for the tip. Haven't used my Mother's Day Booksamillion gift card yet. Maybe they'll have them. I'll look at BN too. :)
Me too- especially no power! When it's out for more than a few days, ie-Andrew (2 weeks), Wilma (1 week), it really wears a person down.
Looks like it dried up...
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