Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT en Agosto 13, 2010

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The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JRRP:
WOW
Link


when you click the link it says untrusted site. can you still go on it or is something wrong with it.
sheri
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Daily update, hope you guys enjoy! :)
watching the tropics 8/14/10
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
1823. Walshy
Volcanic Activity Statement
VA ADVISORY -CORRECTION
DTG: 20100814/1500Z

VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: ST. HELENS 1201-05
PSN: N4611 W12210

AREA: US-WASHINGTON

SUMMIT ELEV: 8363 FT (2549 M)

ADVISORY NR: 2010/001

INFO SOURCE: GOES-11. SEISMIC DETECTION. VOLCANO
WEB CAMERA. USGS. CVO.

ERUPTION DETAILS: RESUSPENDED ASH DUE TO HIGH
WINDS

OBS VA DTG: 14/1430Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL100 8NM WID LINE BTN N4628
W12250 - N4611 W12210. MOV W 10-20KT

FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/2030Z SFC/FL100 NO ASH EXP

FCST VA CLD +12HR: 15/0230Z NO ASH EXP

FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/0830Z NO ASH EXP

RMK: CORR TO ADD FCST INFO. STLT IMAGERY SHOWED A
NARROW PLUME EXTENDING 20 NMI WNW OF THE SUMMIT
AT 1430Z. THE CVO AND USGS CONFIRM THAT HIGH
WINDS IN DRY CONDITIONS ARE RESUSPENDING THE ASH.
NO ERUPTION IS OCCURRING. ... TURK
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Good afternoon, everybody! Storm Chasers unite! :)

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1821. JRRP
see you later
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Quoting Twinkster:


The system the models are developing is predicted to be very large. A very large system will create a large enough moisture shield to fight off dry air. IMO once this monster system develops and moistens the area all hell is going to break loose in the MDR.

Regarding the track of the potential system it is too far out to say, however, looking at the fact that the ECMWF is predicting the NAO to become negative within the next 2-3 days I believe a track closer to what the 06Z GFS is showing seems a bit more realistic. Analyzing the 00Z ECMWF it shows out system with high pressure retrograding west along with the system and a trough which the GFS is showing as well. It seems in the last frame of the ECMWF run that the trough might begin lifting out. In a negative NAO troughs lift out much quicker. If this is the case i believe the GFS is overdoing the trough and our potential cyclone will head wnw-nw when it gets to weakness caused by trough and then resume a more w-wnw track when the high builds back in. The SE US needs to watch this one. Personally I am not even counting out the system going into the caribbean because this reminds me exactly of what the models did with dean, overdid a trough and underestimated the strength of the high.

Back with more info later


LOL Where is psychicmaria on this?
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1819. JRRP
WOW
Link
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Flood-ravaged Pakistan marks independence with solemnity
By the CNN Wire Staff

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

NEW: Pakistan tones down Independence Day festivities
NEW: The prime minister says 20 million people have been affected
Officials fear hundreds of thousands could be stranded
More flooding is expected this weekend, Pakistani officials say

Islamabad, Pakistan (CNN) -- Pakistan marked its 63rd birthday Saturday in the solemnity befitting a nation one-fifth under water.

That's how much of the south Asian country -- an area the size of Florida -- has flooded in relentless monsoon rains, the United Nations says. Nearly 1,400 people have died and 875,000 homes have washed away or are damaged, the Pakistan Disaster Authority says.

What's worse is that millions more are still at peril as the bloated Indus River is cresting this weekend in parts of Sindh province. In some areas, the Indus has fattened from its normal width of a mile to 12 miles.

Homes, crops, trees, livestock, entire villages and towns have been transformed into vast lakes. The worst floods since Pakistan's creation have disrupted the lives of about 20 million people, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said Saturday.

Surrounded by a tragedy of epic proportions, Pakistanis canceled Saturday's celebrations of independence, hard won from the British in 1947. They might have otherwise attended parades, burst firecrackers and waved the green and white flag proudly.

Instead, President Asif Ali Zardari, under fire for a perceived lack of government response, toured flood-ravaged Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the north, where the crisis began more than two weeks ago. He urged Pakistanis to remember the afflicted.

"The best way to celebrate the Independence Day this year is to reach out to the victims and help them to help themselves," he said, according to the Associated Press of Pakistan.

"I stand with you and the people of Pakistan stand with you as well, in your hour of trial," he told flood victims in Seraiki. "Do not lose hope as the entire nation stands with you."

Gilani said that even some religious events connected to the Muslim holy month of Ramadan were canceled. He said money that might have been spent on Iftar, the feast that breaks the daily fast between sunrise and sundown, should be used to alleviate suffering.

Meanwhile, the United Nations said Secretary General Ban Ki-moon intends to visit Pakistan Sunday and see the devastation firsthand. His trip comes as U.N. and other humanitarian agencies are racing against time to prevent more death and suffering.

"Relief supplies must reach women, men and children as soon as possible, in order to avoid further death caused by waterborne diseases and food shortages," said Martin Mogwanja, the United Nations' humanitarian coordinator for Pakistan.

"The death toll has so far been relatively low compared with other major natural disasters, and we want to keep it that way," he said.

Pakistan emergency officials predicted the second wave of floodwaters gushing down the Indus River could reach the southern town of Sukkar by Saturday evening.

Hundreds of thousands of people living along the Indus could be stranded, along with the tens of thousands stranded by the first wave, said Lt. Cmdr. Jawad Khawaja of the Pakistani navy.

Many residents have ignored government warnings to evacuate the area, causing a big concern, Khawaja said.

"The time to act is now -- this is a disaster of unimaginable proportions," said Nilofer Bakhtiar, head of the Pakistan Red Crescent Society.

Thousands of flood victims huddled in sludgy camps or in jam-packed public buildings. Others slept under the stars next to the cows, sheep and goats they managed to rescue from rising waters.

But when they might be able to return to dry lands at home remained a big question. Pakistan's monsoon season is only half way over and more rain is on the way.

CNN's Samson Desta and Reza Sayah contributed to this report.
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1817. Patrap


Could TD#5 hit Louisiana again?

Posted on August 13, 2010 at 5:13 PM

Updated yesterday at 8:34 PM

Some may recognize the met here.
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1816. centex
NWS AUS/SA - This is a little out of context and only a low probability best chance for rain scenario.

THE BEST SCENARIO FOR RAIN AND RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS FOR THE EMERGING TROPICAL WAVE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGHTEN OVER WATER WHILE MOVING WEST INTO TX. MODELS SHOW SUPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TREND...BUT THE RUNS THAT KEEP THE TROPICAL ENERGY OVER LAND ARE HARD TO PUT FAITH INTO FOR NOW.
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Tropical Cyclone History: 41 years ago today Hurricane Camille formed about 50 miles west-northwest of Grand Cayman.



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Quoting MILLERTIME1:
Post 1792 will you please just go away!


it is little by little. Just hit report, and it's all over. At least we sometimes don't have to read it. cause it says violating community standards. Let's not dwell on it cause that gives them satisfaction.

It's rainy here in Satsuma, I think it's from the remnants of td5. Nice rainy Saturday. It's really quite out there in the Alantic.
sheri
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Yeah. Pretty dry out there in MDR.


The system the models are developing is predicted to be very large. A very large system will create a large enough moisture shield to fight off dry air. IMO once this monster system develops and moistens the area all hell is going to break loose in the MDR.

Regarding the track of the potential system it is too far out to say, however, looking at the fact that the ECMWF is predicting the NAO to become negative within the next 2-3 days I believe a track closer to what the 06Z GFS is showing seems a bit more realistic. Analyzing the 00Z ECMWF it shows out system with high pressure retrograding west along with the system and a trough which the GFS is showing as well. It seems in the last frame of the ECMWF run that the trough might begin lifting out. In a negative NAO troughs lift out much quicker. If this is the case i believe the GFS is overdoing the trough and our potential cyclone will head wnw-nw when it gets to weakness caused by trough and then resume a more w-wnw track when the high builds back in. The SE US needs to watch this one. Personally I am not even counting out the system going into the caribbean because this reminds me exactly of what the models did with dean, overdid a trough and underestimated the strength of the high.

Back with more info later
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Yes, I see something out there August 31st too......no need for a model.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yes but too soon too tell

Ok, thanks.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Moisture content in the Eastern Atlantic would have to change dramatically over the weekend to support anything coming off the continent early next week. I don't think the odds of that happening are even 20% and one or two waves will not moisten up two thousand miles of bone dry atmosphere.

We'll see though soon enough.




Yeah. Pretty dry out there in MDR.
Member Since: Julio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 571
Anyway gotta run now. See you all later.
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Quoting tornadolarkin:
Ok, if ridging sets up before these develop, will it hit the USA?



yes but too soon too tell
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Quoting Tazmanian:


yes

Thanks.
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Ok, if ridging sets up before these develop, will it hit the USA?
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Moisture content in the Eastern Atlantic would have to change dramatically over the weekend to support anything coming off the continent early next week. I don't think the odds of that happening are even 20% and one or two waves will not moisten up two thousand miles of bone dry atmosphere.

We'll see though soon enough.

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Thanks for responding about the NWS weather radio station!! I think my thanks didn't post the first time.
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Quoting Houstonia:
Thank you so much!!



If you bookmark this Link and check it once and a while they should state when it is back in service.
Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Thank you so much!!

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


000
NOUS44 KHGX 122057
PNSHGX
TXZ210-211-226-227-235>237-031545-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER SITE AT HOUSTON IS
OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE WITH THE TELEPHONE
LINE. THE TRANSMITTER...CALL SIGN K G G 68 OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.400 MHZ WILL BE DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. UPDATES WILL BE
PROVIDED AS TECHNICIANS TROUBLESHOOT THIS ISSUE.


$$
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Quoting Ameister12:
Is PGI30L the storm a lot of the models develop.


yes
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Is PGI30L the storm a lot of the models develop?
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1796. Patrap
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very little ridging this will cause the storm to curve out to sea.......
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1794. N3EG
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


000
NOUS44 KHGX 122057
PNSHGX
TXZ210-211-226-227-235>237-031545-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER SITE AT HOUSTON IS
OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE WITH THE TELEPHONE
LINE.


$$


That's the problem - they're still using phone lines instead of RF links.
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Quoting nola70119:


Exactly.....and we went over this yesterday with StormW, models are good for 72hours and less. The rest is total fantasy...


I share that view. Every now and then a long range forecast will pan out but then again every now and then a blogger will do as well.

Correct calls for storms far out in time are as much fluke as anything else. Of course, once you enter peak season a long range forecast by a model is a better bet as climatology dictates that storms form more frequently then.

If I were to say today that I forecast a storm to be out there on the 10th Sept. that will likely prove correct as that is the climatological peak. It doesn't make me a seer however.
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1791. robj144
Quoting TexasHurricane:


hmmmm ok. Well I guess no need for me to watch the tropics....the farmers almanac doesn't have anything and that physic person said we are good.....hmmmmm


Psychic person...I'm a physicist... don't confuse the two. :)
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12z CMC, 144 hours:

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1789. Patrap
Quoting nola70119:


Yeah, Pat. This should be very interesting when it gets into the Gulf.....if it spins up quickly, watch out.


Audubon Park is More a Lagoon around the Golf Course here,,were kinda saturated so there is that concern
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Quoting Patrap:
Ahem...,




328
fxus64 klix 140850
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
350 am CDT Sat Aug 14 2010


Synopsis...
center of remnants of dew point 5 appear to be between Meridian and
Tuscaloosa this morning. Scattered showers have developed over the
coastal waters and near the coast. Cell movement is to the
northeast at 15 kts...so threat of flash flooding appears to be
minimal in the short term.
&&


Short term...
remnants/upper low will gradually rotate back toward the area
around the east end of the Texas upper ridge...reaching the coast
again near Pensacola Sunday night and moving westward back across
the area Monday and Tuesday. Still seeing significant model
differences in details...especially in wind fields. GFS appears to
have feedback issues...with one effect producing 45 knots winds over
coastal waters...even while surface low remains over land.
European model (ecmwf)/NAM solutions are weaker and generally trended toward these
solutions.


Airmass remains extremely moist and diurnal development of
convection will continue...with 12 hour areal coverage around
50-60 percent next several days. Cell movement today should
prevent widespread heavy rain amounts...so will get rid of Flash Flood
Watch. Expect one may be needed again around Monday or Tuesday as
low returns. Will mention locally heavy rain in daytime periods in
forecast. Temperatures will be much closer to normal due to the
additional clouds and precipitation. 35
&&


Long term...
all models move system west into western Louisiana and Texas
Wednesday...as Florida ridge builds westward toward end of week.
This will allow some drying across the area at the end of the
week...with some warming of temperatures. Probability of precipitation will remain in the
chance daytime range...slight chance at night. 35
&&


Aviation...
very low IFR conditions in fog and stratus will continue through at
least 11z around kmcb...with mainly MVFR conditions elsewhere due to
light br. Prevailing visibilities will improve after 13-14z with mainly VFR
weather expected the remainder of the day. There will be numerous
shra/tsra...some with mainly brief periods of IFR/MVFR...starting in
coastal areas this morning...and gradually spreading inland this
afternoon. 22/dew point
&&


Marine...
west to southwest winds near 15 knots were reported at many of the
marine observations offshore...and these winds are likely to
continue this morning before settling down to 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon. Seas near 3 feet may approach 4 feet in some of the
eastern waters today. An area of weak low pressure over south
central Alabama is expected to drift back south into the southwest
Alabama and western Florida Panhandle region on Sunday.


Going into Monday through the middle of next week...the details of
the forecast will depend on the timing...exact movement...and
strength of the surface low that the models show moving west back
towards the Mississippi and southeast Louisiana coasts on Monday
into Tuesday morning. Have gone close to the GFS for timing...but
closer to the NAM regarding strength. The GFS continues to show
winds near to exceeding gale force...and have backed off
significantly with maximum winds closer to 20 knots late Sunday
night through Tuesday. Even if sustained winds do not get
stronger...it is likely there will be numerous gusts over 30 knots
from scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Conditions will improve by
Wednesday into Thursday as the low pulls away to the west and
northwest. 22/dew point
&&


Yeah, Pat. This should be very interesting when it gets into the Gulf.....if it spins up quickly, watch out.
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Good Afternoon WU...

Re: 1771 Good afternoon Patrick...I noticed they have not updated the NO discussion...I guess we are lucky...TLH offfice updates ours throughout the day...take care and have a great day...

000
FXUS62 KTAE 141430
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM TD5 CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL IN EAST-
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EXTENDING WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CIRCULATION WILL
KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP THROUGH THE DAY (VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY). THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS DIDN`T
INDICATE MUCH OF ANY RECENT NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
LOW...MAINLY A SLOW EAST DRIFT TOWARD THE GA/AL STATE LINE. THE
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS POSITION AND TREND AND SHOW
IT BEGINNING TO TRACK SOUTH BACK TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE POP/QPF/SKY GRID CONFIGURATION BASED ON THESE LATEST
TRENDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&
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1786. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
429 am CDT Sat Aug 14 2010



For Sunday through Monday night...a consensus of the
GFS/ECMWF/Gem/NAM/UKMET moves the remnant surface low of td5
southwestward across the northwest Florida Panhandle and into the
northwest Florida coastal waters through Sunday night then westward
across the Alabama coastal waters through Monday. A system well to
the north brings a trailing front into the southeast states
meanwhile which will stall north and west of the region. The GFS is
the slightly stronger member of the group but with good agreement
otherwise the consensus looks reasonable and have increased
confidence in how this will play out...the net result of which is
higher probability of precipitation for the forecast area. Will follow along the trend from
the dayshift and increase probability of precipitation a bit more on Sunday with likely probability of precipitation
for much of the area save the northwest portion...then likely probability of precipitation
for the coastal counties Sunday night and Monday with chance probability of precipitation
inland. Copious amounts of tropical moisture remain over the area
during the period...with the highest values of precipitable values
near 2.9 inches shifting from southeastern Alabama southwestward
across the southern portion of the forecast area through Monday
night. This extreme deep layer moisture portends continued
potentially high rain rates through the period...especially over the
southern half of the forecast area during the daytime where the best
deep layer lift will be present. The risk of flash flooding
continues to depend on the strength of the surface low set to track
across the near shore waters...which is still sufficiently in
question to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch at this point...but this
will need to be closely monitored on subsequent shifts. HPC quantitative precipitation forecast
looked reasonable and was used through the period. Muggy conditions
and warmer temperatures over the western portion of the area on
Sunday will result in heat indices of 104 to possibly 108 which will
need to be monitored as well. /29
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Quoting kmanislander:


Well, given where we are in the season the odds of the models verifying will continue to rise but I have to say they have generally done a poor job so far this year.
Then again, we have the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS all on board of this turning into a tropical cyclone. So it's a good consensus, and it is only 3 days away, not 10+.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good day folks.

So now we are looking for storms two weeks and more away ?. I guess when it's this quiet that is the only way to pass the time LOL


Exactly.....and we went over this yesterday with StormW, models are good for 72hours and less. The rest is total fantasy...
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1782. Patrap
Quoting divdog:


That iz the forecast and the Models are in agreement...save for intensity.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
More like 3 days away from a vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined mid level circulation.



Well, given where we are in the season the odds of the models verifying will continue to rise but I have to say they have generally done a poor job so far this year.
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1780. divdog
Quoting Patrap:
Ahem...,




328
fxus64 klix 140850
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
350 am CDT Sat Aug 14 2010


pat i get the feelin you think this thing just might make it back to the gulf ??
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
312 hours:

PGI30L turning extratropical with the second one south of it. Part 3 comes in at around 384 hours.

this is a follow the leader scenario.all out to sea
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1778. Patrap
10-Day Atlantic/Africa loop
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Quoting Houstonia:

I have a weather radio question. We have three different radios that pick up the HOU/GAL NWS station. One is a weather radio, one is a police/weather radio and one is a fm/am/police/weather radio - all different brands.

For at least the last week, we have not been able to pick up the weather radio station. My mother's weather radio says signal loss, it just doesn't come in on her police radio (although the police stations do) and on my radio, I can just BARELY get the station in.

Has anyone else in Houston had this problem? Any way of knowing what is going on with it?

thanks.


000
NOUS44 KHGX 122057
PNSHGX
TXZ210-211-226-227-235>237-031545-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER SITE AT HOUSTON IS
OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE WITH THE TELEPHONE
LINE. THE TRANSMITTER...CALL SIGN K G G 68 OPERATING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.400 MHZ WILL BE DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. UPDATES WILL BE
PROVIDED AS TECHNICIANS TROUBLESHOOT THIS ISSUE.


$$
Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Quoting extreme236:


Well the first one is only a few days away.


Could be, although I think near to or after the end of the next week is more likely.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
So I see after one run of threatening the U.S. the GFS is back to bringing our potential storm out to sea.

Get ready for 2+ weeks of back and forth model runs.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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