Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.
Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.
Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0
Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."
See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.
Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.
Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.
The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.
Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:
This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."
She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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After 2004 and 2005, Hollywood came up with Category 6 and its sequel, Category 7, made-for-TV disaster flicks about killer storms ravaging those hurricane-vulnerable cities Las Vegas, Chicago, and Washington DC.
Apparently there's not enough of a scare factor in Miami, Houston, or New Orleans being hit yet again, or of course any non-US site. But Vegas - now that's hitting where it hurts.
Critics claimed certain aspects of the films lacked scientific plausibility. Then again, that didn't stop The Day After Tomorrow or An Inconvenient Truth.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I can't speak for others, but the ones I label "downcasters" or whatever are the ones who repeatedly shout "bust" when the season is barely underway, it's already at average, and all indications are that things will likely heat up considerably. Not wishing to be effected by a hurricane is a completely understandable thing...but predicting a below-average season despite all the signs simply because that's what one wants to happen is unscientifically silly, and probably a little dangerous.
orly?
The only Linux I know was the one of Charlie Brown.... darnit ....
Seems to me there are many reasons we've fallen behind other nations in many areas, but I highly doubt a reliance on computer technology has a single thing to do with it. Too much fast food, endless kowtowing to corporate interests, an overreliance on religion, conservativism, a foolish belief in a one-size-fits-all educational system, insanely expensive college tuitions (and their attendant student loans) keeping far too many bright minds from getting a degree, and so on, and so forth. Those and many others are the things holding us back...but not too much technology.
ysrly
Scroll down to table 1. You'll see that our 3rd named storm happens on Aug 13 and our first hurricane happens on Aug 10 (climatologically). On the 13th we were exactly average for named storms, now we are below average by a fraction of a storm lol but still below average. Same with the amount of hurricanes.
The itcz refuses to behave,43mm of rain between 4-6am,more to come...
Trinidad met office
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Windward Islands
Partly cloudy becoming cloudy at times with
intermittent showers and the isolated afternoon
thundershower.
GUSTY WINDS, STREET AND FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS
So any chance of anything spinning up off the E coast over the next couple days?
Dont Look for any ins. rates to be going down any time soon if at all they tend to just restructure our policy's at a higer prem.
and inform us of the changes well i ant talking about this any more to day
thanks
Crown weather noted that the CMC, NOGAPS, and a few other models hinted at the possibility.
Mention of it in this morning's PREDICT Ensemble Discussion
Not yet as of yesterday, excerpt from PREDICT pouch synopsis
The next AEW is slightly east of 10E, my eastern boundary for initiating pouches.
Maybe today
Good to see both of you.
The CMC develops a Cape Verde system by 84 hours out or so and regenerates TD5.
The GFS also develops a Cape Verde system by 120 hours out or so and regenerates TD5.
The ECMWF begins to develop a Cape Verde system by 144 hours out and regenerates TD5 by 96 hours.
The NOGAPS hugs TD5 really close to the coast, but strengthens it and develops a Cape Verde system by 72 hours. Both in the same timeframe.
That's pretty strong model support that somethings going to happen next week.
Source
Here's the current Sea Surface Temperature map. Note that most of the non-land area in this image is capable of sustaining tropical cyclones; only those areas in blue and located outside the solid red line are too cool for TCs. Pay special attention to the expanding area of surface temperatures at or above 32°C (about 90°F) on Florida's west coast, in parts of the Bahamas, at the northern edge of Cuba, and stretched out in the western Atlantic between the 8th and 10th parallels.
Source
And finally, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. The entire light-blue (and lighter) area bounded by the solid line has a storm-developing potential of at least 70 kJ/cm2, while the red area surrounding Jamaica has a pretty remarkable TCHP of 110 kJ/cm2 or higher.
Source
Note 1: From Dr. Jeff Masters: "When using the TCHP map, TCHP is not really a good measurement in water that is shallow (less than 50 meters or so). Because TCHP is a function of volume and depth of warm water, TCHP will never appear to be high around coastlines/ocean shelves that are shallow. Remember Charley of 2004 strengthened significantly just offshore of SW FL. [That is,] in a region of low TCHP."
Note 2: most of the Gulf generally sees its maximum SSTs in August, while the northern half of the Caribbean tops out in September. The southern Caribbean and parts of the eastern Atlantic max out in October. (Link)
Long-range GFS actually develops 2 Cape Verde long-track storms.
It appears to me that the TUTT is diappearing and they arent any ULLs to disrupt systems..do you think that the enviorment for the Cape Verde is wave is conducive for intensification to a significant storm?
Yes,
and good morning SJ! :-) haven't seen you since last season.
Dare to dream...
Well, I guess not then.
We have another lull in activity in the tropics. Enjoy this little respite as indications appear that the Cape Verde train may finally be taking shape next week. I am still curious with the ex-TD5 remnants over Central Alabama currently. It will be intersting to see if this meanders back to the south in the next couple of days as some of the models are hinting. I must say that for it to be inland, the tropical low still looks rather vigourous.
After a Bright Start to the morning, it is coming down in bucket-loads right now.
Again....
Still...
Gurgle gurgle gurgle
I've been on a few times. Summer school and slow season so far so not as much as usual.
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