Tropical Depression Five struggling
Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.
Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of TD Five from the Florida Panhandle radar.
93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.
Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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A blogger once described it as the difference between a choir, where you have different voices singing the same tune and a soloist, one voice. Ensembles are the same basic model run at a lower resolution with each member of the ensemble starting out with a slightly different set of initial conditions.
From the TD5 Forecast Discussion.
SATELLITE...BUOY...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.
IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH A LARGE...BROAD...
AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAINS...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE
DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY.
A little bit of a stretch, but worth noting.
It has become better defined today but i'm still not excited about much development with this system as yet.
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94/TD 5
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
However, the mid-level center is trying to make something happen in the East-Central Gulf. If convection can keep popping with it, it could have a chance to take over.
Link
Looks like a seabreeze front.
MAYBE TWO STORMS HA HA
highway traffic i'd imagine
If you look at zoomed in loops, you can see the low clouds spinning around it too. Most of the low clouds are still influenced by the low up around the Panhandle, but this one is trying to take over.
Are you implying that those parties actually WANT there to be an active season simply to be proven right?
FROM WHICH A LOW PRESSURE SEPARATED TO THE NORTH NEAR 50 WEST
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND SHOULD ARRIVE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY. IT HAS SHOWN SOME ORGANIZATION NEAR 15 NORTH 56
WEST AND WILL BEAR WATCHING. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
BEEN MOVING THIS AS A WEAK LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS HAS BEEN WANTING TO DO. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
Shows how warm the waters are even up to New Jersey and New York.
Yeah. A lot of the bloggers noticed.
Face it baha, neither Bonnie or Colin should have been named in the first place.
It all goes back to the concept of bringing preconceived conclusions to the table when analyzing weather patterns.
MMGW means that if a thunderstorm develops in the Atlantic it gets a name. Extreme weather is proof positive that MMGW is FACT.
Once again, my complaint is that such nonsense will eventually result in the general population losing faith in the predictions and suffer because of it. In the minds of most folks, 80% chance of rain is met with derision...do you want the same to happen to hurricane forecasting.
I don't.
I use a number of sites to determine potential threats to my area and it is always difficult to determine which one will be the most accurate. The truth is that, for all the science we possess, we don't really know. I would still support those who promote a vigilant stance in any instance...that does not create public panic.
How puzzling will it be if the projected active season does not appear? And I know it is still a month away from the peak. Still, there are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy. Stay safe.
I agree.. if it can keep the storms and build new storms.. we could have something new and have a new TD or would it be called the same TD b4 b/c its from the same system?
not much showing on the zoomed in WV anim. image
It's so confusing...
Bingo !!
You win a prize.
Ugh, I hope you're wrong. That's the last thing I need to spoil my day for tomorrow in South Florida.
Any comments on the robust upper-level lows that have, IMHO, consumed away so many of this year's storms? If these ULLs continue to appear, they could wind up saving our collective tuchii on the Coast this year.
I took your point into consideration and I closely scutinised the satellite loops and based on the low level cloud motions, whatever spin that exists there is in the mid levels.
Link
very interesting!! I think it will be updated at 8:00 pm to medium percent
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