Tropical Depression Five struggling
Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.
Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of TD Five from the Florida Panhandle radar.
93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.
Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I didn't see much movement associated with exTD5 last 10 frames.
Could he/she be a coast-hugger?
StormW I let ya a note on your blog. Awsome update and thanks for ur time. I am really starting to understand more and more thanks to you.
sheri
Yup the system is making landfall in Louisiana.
eariler
Really? They went back today here on the Panhandle.
Thanks. Here in PR it already started. The blog is quiet (I kind of like it this way). I am waiting for Dr. Masters' new post.
Yes hydrus, I mentioned this yesterday as well, such a large and vigorous circulation, don't know if SSTs will be high enough to support something close to hurricane strength, but a strong developing tropical storm is certainly possible as the wave reaches 20W. This wave has such a well defined 850mb vort max, which is more circular in nature. SAL is a little strong just to the NE of Cape Verde Islands as an ULL moves away.
Ok... I see it now.
Awesome blog Storm - thanks! I remember last year you mentioned that this year will be one to really watch....things will be getting interesting down the road.
Looks to me like COC of TD5 crossed Chandeleur Sound between 1200-1300 UTC.
Looks like it organized back into a tropical cyclone.
It started here in Alabama monday. I remember when I lived in Tampa,Fla school started if i remember right Oct 1st why i remember is my birthday is Oct 3rd and i was 5 and had to wait til I was 6 to start. I went to Saint Frances Episcopal School and Church on Hillsbough Ave back in 1970 gosh that's along time ago. I don't know if it's still there or not. It was beautiful.
Well sorry off the subject just remembering the good days. Cause when you still a kid you don't have very many worries.
My son is in Grand Isle,LA and he said earlier it was rough the weather was horrible. He works for GSM.
Sheri
Structure wise she did and is...but wind on the Storm Relative never showed more than 30-35 in the overall.
But many times we've seen these fluffy ones consolidate near Landfall.
Was a rough rain morning but here in Uptown were in between bands at the moment.
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
However I think the same with the hyperactive forecasts if it turns out to just be an active year (12-14) storms.
Pat you may have been the only one getting TD5 correct...you keep saying it was east of Tampa....while everyone else keep looking south.....good job!
My 4th grader started today here in Lafayette, LA.
if you can zoom in and read #7 thank you
The folks who keep runnings their mouths saying "the season is a bust" are more than likely the ones that are not prepared. These folks will be the ones calling for help after a storm and wondering why no one can get to them and will blame the government for not helping them 4 hours after storm has passed.
Get with it people..... this is the calm before the storms......
There also was alot of, "gettin ready to explode" talk from alot of respected people. Now the signs were there for it too, yes, but it didnt. People need to realize not every forecast is going to pan out, these things have a mind of their own sometimes. There is always the possibility that things wont pan out as forcasted and people need to understand that.
That might explain why the blog is quiet. How is the weather your way? It looks like you are up for a ride.
Reed, is that you?
Note the echo tops still..lotsa energy and warm Water out there as she has slowed to a crawl seems.
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TD #5 MOVED EAST TO WEST INLAND OVER ST.
BERNARD PARISH AND PLAQUEMINES PARISH. LIX 88D OBSERVED THE
CIRCULATION BECOMING BETTER FORMED...WITH SPIRAL RAINBANDS AROUND
THE EAST AND WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER...JUST BEFORE IT MOVED
ONSHORE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 4 AM.
very interesting combination of imagery.. tells a good story.
yeah, once Pat gets done he's pushing over here lol We could use the rain fo sho'!
you need to go back and re read the post that some put on here, the word COULD don't mean it will or want. They used that word. they wasn't trying to over hype this or nothing. in fact they said that night that's where the chances was if it took advantage of it.
Your very rude. I take it you have never made a mistake in your whole life, what a joke you are. Don't come on here bad mouthing these folks.
sheri
how do you know that? its been the calm before the storms for a month now, thats all we've been hearing. "Just wait till next week!" well is almost August 15th now. and 18 storms is looking impossible.
Then your wish might be granted lol.
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