Tropical Depression Five struggling
Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.
Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of TD Five from the Florida Panhandle radar.
93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.
Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well, I think that certainly needs thinking about.
What image are you looking at?
TD5.....NEXT!!
Loads of rain in Hispaniola all day today........(Haiti, Dom. Rep)
update
OH! I missed the 'R', sorry LOL
Just read that post, Baha.
Very nicely done.
Thought provoking stuff there...
Good Evening all.
What is it with this season so far?
Most forecasts have been way off, and shear and dry air keep appearing as if from under rocks.
Yeah, I know that the season can suddenly become active/ferocious/even deadly, but can one (or more) of the Skilled People on this blog explain the following.....??
-with all the conditions, including record SST, relatively low SAL levels, seemingly plenty moisture, marginal shear(in most cases), plenty Waves, Nina/Nino, etc etc--why, exactly, has the season so far failed to produce more storms and no major storms?
And is there a reason that the forecasters are so 'off' so far?
This is a serious request, and I would really like to know the thoughts....
I find it strange.
totally agreed
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
9:00 AM JST August 12 2010
============================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Of Japan
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Dianmu (992 hPa) located at 38.2N 136.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 22 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Gale Force Winds
==================
210 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 43.3N 148.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 47.0N 158.0E - Extratropical
well their was a cloud that passed eirler today
Conclusions and Observations from Klotzbach's Chart and My Extension Thereof
1. Anybody who expects 12 - 15 named storms this year is well within the climatology. Anybody who expects 19 likely believes there are some climatologically anomolous conditions which would predispose the basin towards much higher than average activity levels, both in term of named storms and in terms of ACE.
2. We can reasonably expect the season to last beyond 1 Nov, regardless of number of named storms and / or ACE. One low ACE season had 15 named storms; another initiated its final storm on 9 Dec.
3. There seems to be no immediately obvious correlation between number of storms and number of major hurricanes. 1950 and 1973 both had 13 named storms; both had their second hurricane form on 20 Aug; both seasons ended in mid-Oct [18th and 16th respectively]. 1950 had eight majors; 1973 had one.
I'm sure there are other things to think about from this data. But it is interesting to note that five of the 7 low or average ACE years took place between 1970 and 1975...
I am east of Ocean Springs...It is getting pretty freq now. Expect it to start raining very soon.
nice wave near antilles
I am right where that cell on I-10 is.
Checked Noaa, and the WU front page.
Cant see what you are seeing, really.
Very nice.
But a longer season sounds kind of ominous to me.....
Good question.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/psu_sst_anom.gif
Like I side I don't know how to post as a link
gotcha did you got alot of rain today?
Didnt rain at all in my part of Houma
cells just kinda fizziled out today just NE of me.
You're very welcome!
(oh, you meant THOSE regulars, heheheh)
I deeply appreciate them, as well!
Either way, there's a lot of fodder this season for real study and new hypothesising about what makes storms go and why they've not been going very much thus far.
Finally, I'd like to remind pple of 2007, a La Nina season with 15 named storms, two land-falling cat fives, and an ACE 20 points below the ATL basin'saverage. Anybody want to look back at '07 to see what was going on? We remember Karen for a reason.
Always enjoy your posts!
Yes, he has not be seen since August 1rst when he did his last blog. I was waiting to see his August outlook.
You are very welcome!
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