Tropical Depression Five struggling

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:13 PM GMT en Agosto 11, 2010

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Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of TD Five from the Florida Panhandle radar.

93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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You think recurve?
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1257. xcool
oh cool..
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Lawtell,70550
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1255. xcool
Couillon .locations?
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Overcast here all day,no rain since july.I think Im 150 miles west.
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1253. xcool
jasoncoolman2010xx .nooo
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1252. xcool
Couillon .start now & imo getting better td5xxxx on rader
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Any rain for you xcool?
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1249. xcool
lol
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I do not think one should worry about'eggs flying'.

As I mentioned a few days ago, climate wise this year reminds me of the David and Allen years, so checking on Wiki as to those storms, here is the David intro...

''A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on August 22 developed into a tropical depression which is a area of low pressure that surrounding areas of High pressure in the central Atlantic are coming into make the tropical depression on August 25 about 800 miles (1,300 km) east of the Windward Islands. ''

Only the fourth named storm at the end of August!

For Allen ''Allen was an early Cape Verde-type hurricane which originated from a tropical wave that previously moved off the African coastline on July 30. The system developed as it moved westward, becoming a tropical depression on August 1. Early on August 2, as the depression moved towards the Caribbean, the system stengthened, becoming the first named storm of the season. Allen moved westward at a quick pace of 15 to 20 knots (28 to 37 km/h), becoming a hurricane on August 2 and a major hurricane on the evening of August 3'' also ''Allen attained a central pressure of 911 mbar (26.9 inHg), the lowest pressure on record in the eastern Caribbean sea.[2]'' and ''Allen is the second of only two hurricanes in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (310 km/h), after Hurricane Camille in 1969''

So Allen was not only the forst stor of the season on August 2 (equivalent of nine days ago), but fast became a hurricane.

Both Allen and David became majors, much damage.

When one comes, that is what I expect.

So, it is way too early to 'write--off' this season.

BUT, I am no met, just an average guy, who likes to read the weather.

So, who knows???
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1246. xcool


Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting msphar:
CV may not be able to save the bacon. Maybe 30 to 40 more waves by Nov 30th. At 10% to 15% productivity, that means 4 to 6 more named storms. The clock is ticking.


I would rant about more trough splits, more monsoonal development, ect but I'm too tired and most people ignore it anyways. Think about it, we're at 3. 6 CV systems would put us at 9, 3 more systems or so that form off trough splits would put us at 12. 1 system might form from a non-tropical low in the northern Atlantic like Grace, 13. 3 more systems might form in the Caribbean in a similar fashion to Alex, Ida, Paloma. 16 named. And one might pop out of the blue like Claudette. 17 maybe even. You never know.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
1241. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


lol...I think we are going to be suprised when a storm actually does what everybody thinks it will this season.


haha! XD yes

Quoting smuldy:
same here, just seems like one of those years. I for one have learned not to worry about nor to expect a storm until it is within 60 miles after the start of this season. I just dont trust any models and it seems everything being born has some unforecasted element creep in and destroy it. This could be the "boy who cried wolf" year in that people like me will just tune out til it is too late.


True, but I hope that doesn't happen.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm actually in awe 93L and Td5 fell apart, if I had gone to a casino I would have lost it all since I thought for sure those were going to be the D and E storms.


lol...I think we are going to be suprised when a storm actually does what everybody thinks it will this season.
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1239. xcool
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1238. smuldy
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm actually in awe 93L and Td5 fell apart, if I had gone to a casino I would have lost it all since I thought for sure those were going to be the D and E storms.
same here, just seems like one of those years. I for one have learned not to worry about nor to expect a storm until it is within 60 miles after the start of this season. I just dont trust any models and it seems everything being born has some unforecasted element creep in and destroy it. This could be the "boy who cried wolf" year in that people like me will just tune out til it is too late.
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1237. msphar
CV may not be able to save the bacon. Maybe 30 to 40 more waves by Nov 30th. At 10% to 15% productivity, that means 4 to 6 more named storms. The clock is ticking.
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Quoting RainyEyes:


Really? We were commenting on how messed up our satelite has been lately...goes from 97% to 0% every 2-3 mins...
We had a solar tsunami.
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1233. xcool
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting btwntx08:

there was a solar storm i believe last week when i was in colorado and in fact i couldve seen a auroua but the monsoon rains overthere kept me from seeing it oh well


Really? We were commenting on how messed up our satelite has been lately...goes from 97% to 0% every 2-3 mins...
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1231. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:
It is the most vigorous Cape Verde system shown yet this year by the GFS's high-resolution portion of the run (Days 1-8)

is true
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Quoting Levi32:
It is the most vigorous Cape Verde system shown yet this year by the GFS's high-resolution portion of the run (Days 1-8)


SAL is nil ATM and the trough will be clear by then so why not is what I say?

We better get crackin on some CV storms or some eggs will be a flying.
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1228. Levi32
It is the most vigorous Cape Verde system shown yet this year by the GFS's high-resolution portion of the run (Days 1-8)
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Have to mention lately.

Comcast went out for a while, cell phone signal been crappy, GOES12 been acting weird. Wonder if we're getting some solar flares or something?
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Quoting Levi32:
GFS seeing the Cape Verde storm in 8 days from the tropical wave over Sudan, the same storm on the ensemble mean. It's finally showing on the operational run. The pattern is still screaming watch underneath the ridge....so watch for this to be cruising underneath in 2 weeks.



Yea, I've also learned if the ensembles and the operational of anything are showing a system, gotta watch out. The ECMWF has been hinting at higher amount of vorticity to emerge off the African coast in the same time frame, but nothing organized.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
1224. xcool
LOOK OUT Levi32 .we have attacks on ruun
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1223. JLPR2
Well I'm actually in awe 93L and Td5 fell apart, if I had gone to a casino I would have lost it all since I thought for sure those were going to be the D and E storms.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Really, these models leave little to be desired, nothing new. Nothing is going to take off for another 4 days. Once this CATL trough clears out though, it's a doozie.

One can read between the lines and get a feel, once a cane's about and flourishing, you'll see the REAL deal of this blog.
+1
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1221. Levi32
GFS seeing the Cape Verde storm in 8 days from the tropical wave over Sudan, the same storm on the ensemble mean. It's finally showing on the operational run. The pattern is still screaming watch underneath the ridge....so watch for this to be cruising underneath in 2 weeks.

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Quoting P451:
LOL at the responses.

Sorry about rant mode. Just been a real long rough week where I worked much more than I slept. Just drove a triangle of 400+ miles this evening. Not fun but not an excuse to be a jerk either LOL.

You all have a good night.

This Joisey kid (lol about 30 odd years removed from kid status) is going to down a triple shot of Brandy and sign off.

'Until tomorrow-rest well.





I don't think your being a jerk. Just having a conversation, and good one. Go get some sleep ;).
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Good catch. I hadn't noticed how the SAL was moistened up. An ominous prelude to the heart of the Cape Verde season?


Yep, and do you see any ULL's out by the Cape Verde? Hopefully once the big one comes out its a fish like Bill.
Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24489
1218. xcool
HA
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting P451:


Models have been an absolute JOKE throughout this early season.

What happened to reading the elements and using one's own mind to forecast?

Seems to be a lost art.

EMCWF predicts a Cat 5+ system off of LA 16 days from today? Half the blog co-signs it.

Not this guy.

So far the EMCWF has been 0-8 --- at LEAST.



Really, these models leave little to be desired, nothing new. Nothing is going to take off for another 4 days. Once this CATL trough clears out though, it's a doozie.

One can read between the lines and get a feel, once a cane's about and flourishing, you'll see the REAL deal of this blog.
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1214. xcool


looking at XXXTD5
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting btwntx08:
god is he acting looney lol
Yup,Alot of that going around tonight.
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1211. JLPR2
Quoting sflawavedude:
the models have been terrible. so many undeveloped storms forecasted by models. 93l hurricane? it went poof. 94/td5 ts or hurricane? that went poof. same thing with bonnie. alex was the only decent storm that was model progged decently. :)


Seems like not even the models know why the storms are falling apart. XD
LOL
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1209. xcool
btwntx08 lol
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
the models have been terrible. so many undeveloped storms forecasted by models. 93l hurricane? it went poof. 94/td5 ts or hurricane? that went poof. same thing with bonnie. alex was the only decent storm that was model progged decently. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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