Tropical Depression Five struggling
Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.
Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of TD Five from the Florida Panhandle radar.
93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.
Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I highly doubt that scenario, but to go along with what you have been saying the DGEX is also saying that will happen. Although to be fair the DGEX is a derivative of the GFS.
Hr. 144:
Invest94/TD 5
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
The TUTT to the north will kill it for now
Looks good.
I've been reading that on here since April!
Whats even cooler ids the Swirly coming along the N GOM embedded in the Circ..like last nights.
LAst Nights,,
Mini Vortexes that have been cruisng around d the north side of 94L.
Current
The NHC and the NWS of SJ are forecasting it to actually go north of the islands and to break in two.
Proposed flight pattern
Mission Plan :
NOAA 42RF will fly an Ocean Heat Content/Rapid Intesification mission in front of Tropical Depression 05 in the Gulf of Mexico. The P-3 will leave MacDill AFB, FL at 2000 UTC and will recover back at MacDill by 0400 UTC.
Note: Mission plan filed before NHC issued final advisory
HPC says TUTT is likely going to deform it though....
In the 18z Tropical Surface Analysis shows that a High Pressure should move Northeast of Puerto Rico and that can cause this system to move more westerly.
Really? cool, nice to learn something new. the wind did shift to onshore but ive never seen it show up on radar like that
bookmark this
Link
you're welcome
Link
Good evening Aqua! Great link.
Actually 2 a 42 year old women drown in a rip current in Amagansett Long Island Sunday.
I can testify that there was 4 foot long period ground swell that created huge rip currents Sunday. We had over 100 rescues at my beach alone.
It's sad when people write off ever storm as a "fish storm" if it doesn't effect land directly.
This is the 4th run or so the GFS has been showing ex-TD5 re-emerging into the Gulf and developing again by Monday. I think this might be a completely different system as it shows a disturbance just south of Alabama that ex-TD5 merges with and then develops.
I doesn't even need to re emerge, because all of the moisture left behind by it with the current conditions which are better for development is fair game for development of a new system. I mean that is the way TD5 got started anyway.
UPDATE IMAGES
Some interesting observations I've made based on Klotzbach's data:
1. Only three of the seasons Klotzbach identified had a second hurricane before 11 Aug. [These were 1995, 1970, and 1956, the latter two of which were very low ACE years.]
2. 56.25% , or 9, of the La Nina seasons had above average ACE [that is, ACE above 100].
3. Only one season with an ace of over 100 had its second hurricane before 10 Aug. [Ironically that season was 1995, with its 19 storms.] Every other above average season, ACEwise, had its second hurricane form AFTER 11 Aug.
4. The average [mean] ACE in La Nina seasons since 1950 is 129.75.
To me this suggests that La Nina seasons typicially ramp up earlier than average [average date of formation of a second hurricane is 28 Aug] but NOT before the second decade of Aug. In other words, what we're seeing is not Atypical of La Nina years in the Atlantic basin.
I collated some additional data relating to these 16 seasons, then looked for additional trends. I'll post about those in a minute. Or 10....
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
Mobile, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI
look at the water temps off s.america -5 below average
Beaches along Long Island were closed after waves up to 12 ft (3.7 m) began to cause coastal flooding and beach erosion.[53] All beaches around New York City were closed due to the risk of strong rip currents and waves up to 20 ft (6.1 m).[54] In southern New York, a cold front stalled by Hurricane Bill produced torrential rainfall, amounting to at least 2 in (51 mm) in a few hours, causing flash flooding and a tornado in Maine. Lightning produced by severe thunderstorms also left 5,000 residences without power.[55]
In New York, severe beach erosion caused by the storm resulted in over $35.5 million in losses.[56]
A 7-year-old girl drowned after she, her father, and a 12-year-old girl were swept off a rocky ledge near Acadia National Park in Maine on August 23.[57]
ABNT20 KNHC 112331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...WHICH HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW COULD
STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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