97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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According to my notes, NHC issued a Hurricane Warning 18 hours before Katrina's first landfall (in S. Fla.).
An inch and a half of rain here early this morning, and showers/bright skies/cloudy conditions/thunder in the distance all day long.
Clearing up now and a nice moon is up.
Some decent stuff building around 98L, but time is short for it to do much.
97L is slow. Which is a good thing for the GOM Oil Collectors.
Waves building in the East Atl.
What else ???
Then tropical storm warning and Hurricane Watch. The hurricane warning didn't go up until 5 pm.
Oops -- too late. lol
et tu atmoe! Where have you been? Couldn't have been anyplace important.
Though somewhat disorganized, 97L is looking way better than the roadkill it was this morning.
You took notes ? Wow. I was too busy swearing at my lack of preparedness. :-)
I am one hour south of you, expect an increase in rain/storms.. That's about it unless there's a dramatic turn to the north with 97L, which is highly unlikely. We'll get our action in the next few months.
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
Good evening to all. I've been on the East side of Mobile bay for a few days. (family v-cation) Hot, Humid, not much oil there. ... and much to my relief and surprise, There was plenty of the usual sea life.
98L looks better than 97L. Time will tell.
Can I offer anyone anything from the bar?
Where did you get that info ? Just curious.
Leap east more like it.
Thanks for prodding me into research!
Look again -- it says right at the top -- Tropical Storm Katrina. :-) Memories do fade after 5 years, I know.
Navy has 97L at 213N-714W
which is actualoly a job west from this after noon (or maybe it was morning!) 20N-68.4W.
I just checked, I dont see a floater up for 98L on the SSD site, I know rammbdis has one
Good graphic Jeff.. Still look like it could move ms..la..tx.. I guess I am just hoping I could get weak cat 1 so that I could run on generator and grill out with ALL the neighbors...get out of work for a few days.. etc etc
Not seeing it on the NHC site yet.
(Forgive my callousness, but pushing snooze button.)
Cheers...
214N, 728W, 30, 1009, DB,
21.9 72.2 is my location
...why there's no data available from Turks Island airport?
Airport is small, no International Jets regularly land there, it closes at night etc. etc.
www.nhc.noaa.gov --- bottom left hand side - archives.
I went back through Andrew's once. it was pretty mucch raw data, not stored pretty like it is now. Great read.
In other words, knock off the comps unless the heat temps/wind shears are comparable as well.
I'm in Lantana. I found it curious that the NHC kept reporting Katrina headed West, which would have been bad news for us here (relatively speaking), but the actual track kept showing a SW movement. Therefore, I felt the storm wouldn't hit us despite the NHC's bullitens to the contrary.
I remember it 'cause the husband was out-of-town, and we boarded up right before he left. Katrina was not much up here in Northern Broward, but one couldn't know that ahead of time.
Guess we'll get rain out of this mess.
Good night StormW, rest well. Oh and for those who don't see the floater on 98L.. go to the second floater and click refresh ;)
KATRINA Graphics Archive
Depends on how loose or tight the ??? storm
is!
Let alone the path of impact.
Just didn't want someone who was glancing at the blog to think there were storm warnings out lol.
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Yeah, no kidding, according to the image below, Alex may have dropped over 50 inches of rain within the Rio Grande basin in Mexico (yes, I know it says 60 days, but that area there is all semiarid and arid land, so I doubt more than 5 inches or so were not from Alex). Everything within the red line south of the border flows into that river, and that is why flooding was so bad, even with all of the flood control systems in place.
its hotter
I respectfully disagree. Upper winds are still unfavorable:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
Click on the HDW-H check box during the animation, upper winds are either westerly or southerly across the elongated surface trough that is 97L (seems elongated from eastern Cuba to eastern Bahamas). Upper winds needs to be easterly for reduction in shear.
I just checked again and it's on mine. I'm not sure why it wouldn't be on other people's.
yea.. that's why I came here to see if they had updated SAT pics
I suppose it is POSSIBLE to doctor such documents, but I can't see NHC going to that trouble. Especially when lots and lots of internet sites would have gotten the info (including Wunderground) and archived it.
Well. I seriously doubt no mention was made then; our local WXman on TV is a muckamuck at the Bahamas Met. Dept. I suppose it's possible that at 7:30 pm they hadn't made the upgrades as yet.... but if Basil Dean talked about Katrina that night, I certainly didn't remember it the next day, and I was a hurricane buff even then.
Very interesting....
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