97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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Is that a current enviro or a forecasted one? If forecasted, and what date and time? The latest models that went north obviously see the ridge not as strong in the future... at least for the latest run. Again, I don't give too much finality to single runs, I look for persistence.
21/1145 UTC 19.7N 69.6W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
jason,please just relax for a minute,its going to be a long busy season from here fowrard,97L has been effected by sheer,dry air and land interaction.Today should be a day of slow surface organization as the ULL weakens and moves towards the NW carib as 97L moves WNW towrds the lower bahamas area.Factors have not been forecast to be favorable until tomorrow and thats been the forecast!!!!......
TAFB was 1.0/1.5
Not as good as many were expecting or some even hoped. But the signature is there, and from the most recent data/images seems to be trying to get its act back together again. StormW is working on his synopsis which I can't wait to read.
Im looking at consistency, I am seeing a more northward trend from yesterday, I am also seeing that our most reliable tropical models are in great agreenment calling for a central Florida strike, also these more reliable models have been more consistent then the other models have with 97L. You know better than anyone that ridges break down and that is what the models are antcipating. So I am going to pick my pony with them, if they shift South I will agree with you until then Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral look out.
Okay, yeah, it doesn't look that great, the DR had some very high mountains, that may be the problem, maybe once it pulls away from the island.
FRIDAY...TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE 40-50% RANGE ACRS NERN FL
WITH 20-30% CHANCES REMAINING OVER SERN GA. PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ACRS NERN FL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 90 WHILE SERN GA
SHOULD STILL REACH INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.
I see that, but I see dry air encroaching further on the invest. I see a slight increase in convection near the center, but that ULL is holding firm on it....for now.
Dy air won't be a big issue with 97L. You can actually see a shield of moisture protecting the invest as the ULL moves westward. Development should re-occur tonight. Every invest has it's bad days :)
Unlike yesterday, where I was saying "wait until it gets a center... it won't develop into anything until then," now I'm saying that we'll likely have a TD within the next 24-36 hours or so, unless something starts inhibiting it.
Any word on the this disturbance from africa?
see what i worte below, there has been a conssitent northward shift from yesterday and our most reliable models have caleld for a central florida strike.
Sure hope so, because that's our whole tourist and seafood industry in SC.
true,but if its sheered TC it could be any side,but in general the onshore flow is where the heavier wx should be...
no they dont, they take it anywhere from Cape Canaveral to Miami as per the Docs posting up there. Last night it was anywhere from the keys to Martin county. That IS a northward shift.
This is totally kents law right now
LOL, this happens every year. Remember Fay, Dolly?
the founding prnciple of Kent law
Is recon still on for today?
The ridge is too strong for it to go that north, the models have shifted south, I don't know what the models were thinking earlier.
If that holds true this could be very problematic I must say
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