97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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Datadink 90-98 here.
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Hey there Storm! Hope all's well with you.
"The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today" - Dr. Masters
Hmmmm...... guess he spoke too soon! LOL
I know all of the attention is on 97L as it should be, but I wanted to get your thoughts on the wave in the Eastern Carribean well SE of Puerto Rico. The convection continues to flare up with that system. Have you had a chance to analyze that wave?
or it can mean someone dropped a cheezit cracker
I just checked where they lead to and they lead to several ant mounds around a large shrub on the corner of my house.
or maybe just a sudden turn of events with the system?
Impressive little wave I must say, just a matter of time before we get a depression as the pressures have started to drop too!
Can we get some pics?
We can send a FOX crew over ASAP.
Though it wouldn't be impossible. Probably not still has a bit to go unless environmental hazards suddenly fall off in its wake. It will take some time for it to become a TD.
Hey Levi good to see ya. have a great day.
I read what cha wrote on ur blog, good update. Some of us was wondering where u was.
sheri
Yep-
Even the Red Ants made a nest in our car- or tried to, a week before Katrina.
The sugar ants went into the attic..
I told the blog about my dog speaking latin to me last night.
The 12z GFS has them a little farther apart but still in an unfavorable configuration for development. The NOGAPS and CMC keep them too close together as well.
I don't want those FOX lunatics anywhere near my house. lol
Did someone say Katrina? Here's a shot I saved from Tuesday, August 23rd, 2005. That was the day it became TD 12. It had been sheared really badly just before Tuesday, but you can see the upper winds becoming anticyclonic on the image below
BY wxman57 storm2k.org
he 97L
ok, back away slowly from the mounds. go inside, call emergency management officials and let them know! They probably have no idea its a real situation!
just curious...
Hey thanks. I've been pretty busy with my summer classes, but I will be around when things are active. I hope to get blog updates posted daily again.
They might throw the blog a bone and give it TD status tonight. Still has a bad case of 'dry eye' though. Would be a much different story if this was happening six weeks from now.
Guess the nhc will have to eat some crow after stating favorable conditions ahead.
Not even Geraldo?
His mustache can swallow storm surge.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC WED JUL 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100721 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100721 1800 100722 0600 100722 1800 100723 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.3N 71.4W 21.8N 74.1W 22.6N 76.5W 23.3N 78.6W
BAMD 21.3N 71.4W 22.3N 73.4W 23.6N 75.8W 24.8N 78.6W
BAMM 21.3N 71.4W 21.9N 73.6W 22.9N 75.8W 24.0N 78.1W
LBAR 21.3N 71.4W 22.1N 73.6W 23.2N 76.0W 24.2N 78.5W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 40KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100723 1800 100724 1800 100725 1800 100726 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 80.8W 26.5N 85.3W 28.2N 89.7W 29.8N 93.2W
BAMD 26.3N 81.9W 29.9N 88.3W 33.8N 91.8W 37.1N 91.4W
BAMM 25.2N 80.6W 27.6N 85.7W 29.8N 89.9W 31.9N 92.5W
LBAR 25.5N 81.1W 28.5N 86.2W 31.8N 88.7W 35.5N 87.1W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 54KTS 58KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 44KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 71.4W DIRCUR = 297DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 20.1N LONM12 = 69.0W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 67.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
George- 1 hour.
Katrina a week.
Gilbert a few days, etc.
Looks like S. Texas is getting some moisture!
MAybe we can get him to use it to mop up the oil spill!! LOL!!!
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