97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.
Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.
Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.
Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.
Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."
Jeff Masters
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The southerly paths would take (future) Bonnie just South of the oil spill. Winds & waves will push the spill further onto the beaches in Mississippi & Alabama and perhaps further into Lake Ponchartrain and the Louisiana marsh land.
That path would tend to keep the spill away from Florida, but would push more of the oil slick onto the barrier islands, inlets and bays.
We may also see more rapid intensification if the storm moves through the Florida straits rather than making contact with land as predicted by some models.
Time for a fruit salad lol
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of Wed 21 Jul 2010 17:45:01Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year
Atlantic
97L.INVEST
East Pacific
NONE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
99W.INVEST
04W.CHANTHU
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Ohh, I see, thanks.. I'm still learning these things lol.
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/wrf/wrf_uscarib.html
yepper
Maybe once the system has a chance in the gulf, then the uncertainty will begin.
Exactly... Most people don't want to except this solution.
Sounds like you got computer problems or a virus.
Better check the comp temp see if its sick.
AXNT20 KNHC 211801
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS OVER AND N OF HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 25N67W SW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 18N70W. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS AND THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
HAVE DISRUPTED THE STRUCTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING.
THE AXIS OF THE DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
LEWITSKY
Someone posted something with a width that stretched the entire page horizontally. It'll drop off soon, and all will be back to normal...
It looks like 97L is becoming more organized in structure today, just waiting on the ULL to move far enough away for additional development to occur. I'm thinking if conditions play out right, we will have TD3 by tomorrow sometime, more likely in the afternoon. We'll see I guess.
Admin took care of it.
This system is having a hard time getting it's act together
This is not related to invest 97, very interesting
Nothing. If you mean Bay of Campeche... nothing just a surface trough and it's associated convection
If that were to be the case than it would be assumed that environment is the remaining issue?
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