Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:52 AM GMT en Julio 10, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.

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hello and peace to all,, forgive my off topic , i see a few here have commented on the oil spill, i had the pleasure today to sell blueberries to this nice older lady, and she said things about the oil spill that i found {quite bizarre} lol,, but she was adamant about , forgive this long spiel,, she has a newsletter sent to her by a friend stating that a methane gas ball would eventually ignite sending a fireball that would wipe out the entire gulf coast,, i dont know what religon or do not care where she heard this, i just thought it was interesting that people hear all things,, thanks again 4 all of your input so far 4 this upcoming season,, live from the us open 2014 .greg
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Quoting Dakster:


I'd rather be under that, then the record LOW pressure..
I agree 100%! Lowest pressure ever was 869mb in Typhoon Tip.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wonder what it would feel like to be directly under that.


I'd rather be under that, then the record LOW pressure..
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Quoting Hurricanejer95:
At the same as today 2009 had
1-0-0-0
2008: 2-1-1 Active: Bertha (1)
2007: 2-0-0 (La Nina)
2006: 1-0-0 (El Nino)
2005: 4-2-1 Active: Dennis (3)
2004: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2003: 4-3-1-0 Active: Claudette (1)
2002: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2001: 1-0-0
2000: 2-0-0-0 (La Nina)



????
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Dakster:


Still quite a ways away from the record of 1094 (32.31 inches), but yes very strong.
I wonder what it would feel like to be directly under that.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Some places in northern Alaska are seeing high temperatures over 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal this week.
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At the same as today 2009 had
1-0-0-0
2008: 2-1-1 Active: Bertha (1)
2007: 2-0-0 (La Nina)
2006: 1-0-0 (El Nino)
2005: 4-2-1 Active: Dennis (3)
2004: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2003: 4-3-1-0 Active: Claudette (1)
2002: 0-0-0 (El Nino)
2001: 1-0-0
2000: 2-0-0-0 (La Nina)
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Quoting IKE:
Here's the Atlantic ocean on the new discussion....

"ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE
FLORIDA OVER THE FAR W ATLC TO NEAR 29N73W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N67W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 70W-78W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N60W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 52W-65W AN GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH 700 NM ENE OF BERMUDA AND THEN NARROWS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER S FLORIDA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND INTO THE E ATLC IS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA
UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING."


1030 mb's in 30.42 inches. That's a strong high and it's suppose to get 4 mb's stronger over the next few days...according to the GFS parallel.


Still quite a ways away from the record of 1094 (32.31 inches), but yes very strong.
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Quoting Levi32:
Getting hot up here in AK....at least to my north. Summers in this kind of pattern get hot in the interior. 86 degrees in Fort Yukon today (latitude 67N)....overnight lows may not get below 65 tonight.

Wow that pretty warm. But over here Bettles high is about 5 degrees colder than my lows.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
866. IKE
I'm assuming BP knew the weather would be fair in the GOM for awhile and now would be a good time to remove the cap and put another one(better fitting), over the gushing oil.
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Getting hot up here in AK....at least to my north. Summers in this kind of pattern are an oven in the interior. 86 degrees in Fort Yukon today (latitude 67N)....overnight lows may not get below 65 tonight.

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Convection keeps firing left and right over land to the east of the eastern quadrant.

Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
863. IKE
Here's the Atlantic ocean on the new discussion....

"ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE
FLORIDA OVER THE FAR W ATLC TO NEAR 29N73W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N67W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 70W-78W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N60W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 52W-65W AN GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH 700 NM ENE OF BERMUDA AND THEN NARROWS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER S FLORIDA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND INTO THE E ATLC IS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA
UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING."


1030 mb's is 30.42 inches. That's a strong high and it's suppose to get 4 mb's stronger over the next few days...according to the GFS parallel.
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All you get from the TWD

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 9N30W 5N41W 5N54W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 9N-12N.
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Quoting Dakster:
MH09 -

I agree, good looking systems exiting Africa has a tendency to fall apart once they completely hit "open water". Besides no landmass is at imminent threat, either.
Well it is over water right now and has been over water for quite some time now. Also, most new convection has been firing over water so I'm pretty sure that this wave won't be going "poof" until if and when it encounters unfavorable conditions. I just don't think we will see any shading for at least a day if continuous organization continues occurring.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Drakoen, Otaku in training ;)


Nope
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859. JRRP
Quoting Drakoen:


I forecasted you would be the first one to post that lol.

jajajaja
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Quoting IKE:


I don't see anything...either by models...SAL....shear...whatever reason. I see what the GFS shows, but it has virtually no model support...no NHC support for now IF they're saying nothing for the next 48 hours.

I've read updates from Crown Weather...listened to Weatherguy03's thoughts...read Accuweather's thoughts.

Slow time in the ATL. Maybe they'll be something in 7-10 days.

I don't really care if it finishes with 1 for the season. I'm always rooting for a slow season. Glad it's slow now so they can cap the oil spill....get the relief wells finished and working.


Oh? This blog would be pretty boring if we had slow seasons year to year. You'd have to refill your valium prescripitions constantly with the amount of off-topic posts...maybe add some aderol to the list.

I'm always rooting for a nice active season with lots of recurvatures.
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WOW!....I mind as well go back on Vacation!
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Quoting stormhank:
evening....Does anyone have a link to african satellite? Thanks

This is a cool Africa satellite link: Link
You guys have a good night.
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855. IKE
The encouraging news if you want storms....climatology says you'll get them...or at least the odds are greater....



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WOW!..... There was NO STORM!
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Drakoen, Otaku in training ;)
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Quoting stormhank:
evening....Does anyone have a link to african satellite? Thanks
Sat24
EUMETSAT Meteosat 0 degree
SSD Latest Satellite Imagery
Tropical RAMSDIS Online
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
MH09 -

I agree, good looking systems exiting Africa has a tendency to fall apart once they completely hit "open water". Besides no landmass is at imminent threat, either.
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850. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WOW the NHC is sleeping like a baby maybe there waiting to see what D Min will do and D Max so maybe yellow or orange tommrow morning


We already passed D-min in that area
Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
849. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


I hope we get something soon. Don't you?


I don't see anything...either by models...SAL....shear...whatever reason. I see what the GFS shows, but it has virtually no model support...no NHC support for now IF they're saying nothing for the next 48 hours.

I've read updates from Crown Weather...listened to Weatherguy03's thoughts...read Accuweather's thoughts.

Slow time in the ATL. Maybe they'll be something in 7-10 days.

I don't really care if it finishes with 1 for the season. I'm always rooting for a slow season. Glad it's slow now so they can cap the oil spill....get the relief wells finished and working.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


I can guarantee you won't be saying that in September. :)


lol, you make it sound like were going to get absolutely bombed.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WOW the NHC is sleeping like a baby maybe there waiting to see what D Min will do and D Max so maybe yellow or orange tommrow morning
Lol, I'll be surprised if we even get shading tomorrow let alone orange. This area is yet to be analyzed as a tropical wave, and if I were the NHC I would wait a bit longer to see if the convection persists. IMO, no shading for at least another 24-30 hours.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
evening....Does anyone have a link to african satellite? Thanks
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
WOW the NHC is sleeping like a baby maybe there waiting to see what D Min will do and D Max so maybe yellow or orange tommrow morning


I doubt that...
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Quoting Drakoen:


I hope we get something soon. Don't you?
I can guarantee you won't be saying that in September. :)
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


We have quite an array of NOAA polar-orbiting satellites at our disposal here in Alaska. It isn't a problem tracking polar lows.

Geostationary satellites can't see the pole because they are at a flat angle to them, like putting your eyes down to the edge of your desk and trying to see what what's on it. You can't. The large surface becomes a thin sliver that you can't see.

GOES-11 makes it up to 75N which covers Alaska just fine most of the time, unless something from the pole comes scooting down and then we supplement with polar-orbiting satellites. The polar-orbiting passes are also useful when higher resolution is required, since the GOES-satellite net decreases in resolution the higher up in latitude you go.


That is nice to know and thanks for the reason behind the missing data too!
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WOW the NHC is sleeping like a baby maybe there waiting to see what D Min will do and D Max so maybe yellow or orange tommrow morning
Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting Bordonaro:

Oops. Is it "official" from the National Climate Prediction Center yet?


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Quoting Levi32:


We have quite an array of NOAA polar-orbiting satellites at our disposal here in Alaska. It isn't a problem tracking polar lows.

Geostationary satellites can't see the pole because they are at a flat angle to them, like putting your eyes down to the edge of your desk and trying to see what what's on it. You can't. The large surface becomes a thin sliver that you can't see.

GOES-11 makes it up to 75N which covers Alaska just fine most of the time, unless something from the pole comes scooting down and then we supplement with polar-orbiting satellites. The polar-orbiting passes are also useful when higher resolution is required, since the GOES-satellite net decreases in resolution the higher up in latitude you go.

Thank you Levi.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We're in La Nina now.

Oops. Is it "official" from the National Climate Prediction Center yet?
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Quoting Drakoen:


Nope. I don't want to get into the gist of writing blogs and then having to maintain it once I start going for my degree.
Oh I see. Hope all goes well when you go to FSU.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Drakoen:


I hope we get something soon. Don't you?


I know I sure do.
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The July Lull...

Is fine with me.

We gotz to get that DWH plugged and under control.

Folk in 4 States are hurting bad.

And the wildlife is hurting really bad.
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Quoting IKE:


Good...love putting it on here.


I hope we get something soon. Don't you?
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considering the wave has yet to be analyzed, not a shock that the TWO has nothing, no big deal really either
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Drakoen, have you ever planned to do a blog entry? I've been eager to read about your thoughts on current conditions, it sure promises to be interesting.


Nope. I don't want to get into the gist of writing blogs and then having to maintain it once I start going for my degree.
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831. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


I forecasted you would be the first one to post that lol.


Good...love putting it on here.
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Quoting Dakster:


Covers most of AK. I guess the folks at prudhoe bay are on their own fro anything coming at them from the North across the arctic ocean.


We have quite an array of NOAA polar-orbiting satellites at our disposal here in Alaska. It isn't a problem tracking polar lows.

Geostationary satellites can't see the pole because they are at a flat angle to them, like putting your eyes down to the edge of your desk and trying to see what what's on it. You can't. The large surface becomes a thin sliver that you can't see.

GOES-11 makes it up to 75N which covers Alaska just fine most of the time, unless something from the pole comes scooting down and then we supplement with polar-orbiting satellites. The polar-orbiting passes are also useful when higher resolution is required, since the GOES-satellite net decreases in resolution the higher up in latitude you go.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Not really. We had a very strong Cat 2, a Tropical Depression and several very healthy tropical waves in the Atlantic Basin. The 2009 Hurricane Season started in early Aug 09. So compared to last year, we've been pretty busy.

Remember, we have near ideal weather conditions this year for an extremely busy Atlantic Hurricane Season. Very warm water in the Main Development Region (MDR), ver high TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) and low wind shear, in a neutral phase in the ENSO, which is an ideal situation for a very busy season.


We're in La Nina now.
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Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



I forecasted you would be the first one to post that lol.
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ABNT20 KNHC 102334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
826. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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