Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:52 AM GMT en Julio 10, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Lots of dry air to the North of the blob coming off of Africa as noted above:




For sure going WEST.....





Only 15-20 kts of Shear at the Max if that.....




SST's are ok in the area but, just a little cooler to the WEst....








Overall and after looking at everything with the CV blob......i would give it a 30% chance of Convection and a LLC develop in the next 72hrs as Dry air as the truly only obstacle to overcome and slightly cooler SST's to the West! Something truly to watch!




A major concern is the SST in the Mid-Atlantic/NorthEastern US Atlantic coastal waters.

They are several degrees ABOVE normal, even warmer in many cases than in late August in a normal year.

When the 2010 ATL Hurricane Season cranks up in Aug & Sept, any hurricane that crosses those waters will not weaken as quickly as they normally do.

Considering there is 75 million people living in that are, they should be aware they are also at risk for being clobbered by a major hurricane.
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Weather456:


The Walker Circulation has been largely overshadowed. The normal state is upward in the WPAC and downward in the EPAC. It has been downward everywhere across the PAC due to an even larger scale longitudinal circulation that encompasses the Atlantic.


Thank You.
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264


Wave looking good on MIMIC, lots of cyclonic turning.

The MIMIC imagery has been going haywire the last few days, though. Is the solar activity to blame?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There have been several powerful Cape Verde-type hurricanes develop in July.

1. Allen (1980)
2. Bertha (1996)
3. Emily (2005)
4. Bertha (2008)

And these are just major hurricanes, I'm sure that there have been many more tropical storms and hurricanes originating from the Cape Verde's in July.


Allen really didn't get started until early August...formed July 31.
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Quoting Dakster:
Safe to say we hit 1300...

How is our African Wave looking today?

Like there is a war between it and the SAL. And the SAL appears to be winning :o(..
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HPC International Desk Homepage
The link I previously posted is under Tropical Desk -> Charts

Very nice charting.
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1320. hydrus
Quoting Ameister12:
Cool image of Hurricane Bertha (1996) 14 years ago today.
Looks rather benign in that image.
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1319. IKE
SAL.....

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Quoting beell:


I think we had one over Texas last week!

Even normally dry North Central TX, Arlington-Dallas-Ft Worth has had between 4-6 inches of rain from 6-28 through 7-10. Some areas have had up to 10"
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1317. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 26N THROUGH TUE SHIFTING
TO THE N ALONG 30N BY THU.


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN W OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MON AND
TUE MOVING INLAND WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU.
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1316. beell
GFS still showing a focus for development in the SW Caribbean next weekend. A gyre-induced monsoonal, typhoonal, near equatorial trough that will have us guessing on EPAC or ATL development as the vorts spin around this feature.


Link
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Quoting Ameister12:

How come?

I will be going there in December to visit wife's family. I no right now they need rain but not by the typhoon load.
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
1314. Patrap
Sealing Cap Installation Overview with Kent Wells - 9 July 2010
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting beell:


Morning, nrt.

That is a very cool chart, thank you. I had not seen that one before. But...where were you last night, LOL? After I had already "rolled over"?


HPC International Desk Homepage
The link I previously posted is under Tropical Desk -> Charts
Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11222
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Nice observations there 456 and hope you and your Family are doing fine.....So, if I read some of your analysis correctly, is there also an "uptick" in the Walker Circulation, combined with the La Nina conditions, which also contributes to suppressing W-Pac activity at the moment?


The Walker Circulation has been largely overshadowed. The normal state is upward in the WPAC and downward in the EPAC. It has been downward everywhere across the PAC due to an even larger scale longitudinal circulation that encompasses the Atlantic.
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1311. Patrap
BP Live feeds from remotely operated vehicles (ROV)

ROV footage - live stream
Live video links from the ROVs monitoring the damaged riser.
Please be aware, these are live streams and may freeze or be unavailable from time to time.
Live feeds from Ocean Intervention III

ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Viking Poseidon
ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Boa Deep C
ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Skandi
ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Enterprise
ROV 1
ROV 2
Live feeds from Q4000
ROV 1
ROV 2
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1310. beell
Quoting bappit:

Those monsoonal troughs are everywhere!


I think we had one over Texas last week!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
D'OH! Missed it by 1!

Ha Ha!
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1308. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HPC's Tropical Desk labels it "Near Equatorial Trough" on their Caribbean Charts.


Morning, nrt.

That is a very cool chart, thank you. I had not seen that one before. But...where were you last night, LOL? After I had already "rolled over"?
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Cool image of Hurricane Bertha (1996) 14 years ago today.
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1305. Ossqss
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Quoting DestinJeff:
D'OH! Missed it by 1!
LMAO!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
EVeryone have a good Day.....i'm OUT!
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1300. Dakster
Safe to say we hit 1300...

How is our African Wave looking today?
Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10539
Quoting AussieStorm:

yeah, and i'm not happy about it finally starting.

How come?
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Quoting reedzone:
Ehh, the wave isn't as impressive as yesterday.. Though people do need to remember that it is ONLY July.. Things should ramp up by August, I'm still expecting 15-18 storms.
There have been several powerful Cape Verde-type hurricanes develop in July.

1. Allen (1980)
2. Bertha (1996)
3. Emily (2005)
4. Bertha (2008)

And these are just major hurricanes, I'm sure that there have been many more tropical storms and hurricanes originating from the Cape Verde's in July.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning.

The WPac is finnally heating up.

Here's Tropical Depression 03W:

yeah, and i'm not happy about it finally starting.
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Ehh, the wave isn't as impressive as yesterday.. Though people do need to remember that it is ONLY July.. Things should ramp up by August, I'm still expecting 15-18 storms.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning to all

Blog Update

Why has the Northwestern Pacific been so inactive?


Nice observations there 456 and hope you and your Family are doing fine.....So, if I read some of your analysis correctly, is there also an "uptick" in the Walker Circulation, combined with the La Nina conditions, which also contributes to suppressing W-Pac activity at the moment?
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
It is so nice to log on and not see all of the goons that have been invading the blog for the last couple of weeks.


YA....LOL
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It is so nice to log on and not see all of the goons that have been invading the blog for the last couple of weeks.
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Lots of dry air to the North of the blob coming off of Africa as noted above:




For sure going WEST.....





Only 15-20 kts of Shear at the Max if that.....




SST's are ok in the area but, just a little cooler to the WEst....








Overall and after looking at everything with the CV blob......i would give it a 30% chance of Convection and a LLC develop in the next 72hrs as Dry air as the truly only obstacle to overcome and slightly cooler SST's to the West! Something truly to watch!



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning to all

Blog Update

Why has the Northwestern Pacific been so inactive?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It still has an impressive structure, but SAL is taking over fast. At this point I don't know if this wave will survive.



Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Good morning.

The WPac is finnally heating up.

Here's Tropical Depression 03W:
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About 60 waves come off of Africa every H-season and only a very small percentage actually make TD or greater status by the time they start approaching the Antilles....Good to wait until after they pass the Cape Verde islands to see how they hold up after making the transition to water.
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
1287. snotly
ah ha. no storms. no excitement. but thats a good thing, people forget what it's like with no power for a week to a month and damaged property. I remember them complaining about no ice cubes and not being able to bath for weeks on end.
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1286. LesPaul
Morning all

Let's hope BP can do something right for a change
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is the breakdown as I see it ...

1 name in June
2 in July
4 in August
6 in September
3 in October
1 in November

Total: 17


I predict:
June-1
July=1-3
August=4-7
September=3-7
October=2-5
November=0-3
December=0-1
Total=11-27(worse than NHC but there is 99% probality of these numbers)
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Looks like our area or convection off Africa has gone pffft. Like someone took the air out of it and "put it to sleep with the fishes"!!

SAL did that
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
1283. Drakoen
Wave off the coast of Africa still has an excellent structure forcthis time of year, but as I noted yesterday, the MIMIC-TPW signature is just not showing what we would look for as far as a potential for waves coming off the African coast to develop.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I bet we aren't to 1300 by noon Central.

Looks like our area or convection off Africa has gone pffft. Like someone took the air out of it and "put it to sleep with the fishes"!!
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1281. bappit
Quoting beell:
The true test of this wave will be in a day or two. After it clears the monsoonal trough and strong surface convergence near the coast of Africa (hey, look! i used "monsoonal trough" in a sentence!)

Those monsoonal troughs are everywhere!
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That is a pretty nice LL spinner coming off Africa.....will probably be our next Invest. JUST in time for the BULK of MJO arrives.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Morning Aussie....Took some vacation time a few weeks ago and got "really" behind at work so I came in for the morning to work and blog without any distractions........ :)

Well, we do have Oil-watch. Or we could watch the WPAC system. I noticed on tonight's news that BP has taken the cap off the blown well to fit a bigger cap in a few days time, so a few days of oil flooding into the GOM means nothing to these people. So what if they have stepped up boom dragging behind boat then setting the oil on fire, Don't they know that's called air pollution. Which would mean it will pollute the air of many more than just where the oil hits the beaches.
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
BTW, it's still mostly cloudy here, but with a bit more sun [for now, anyway] than yesterday.

I need to get off this blog and go run a couple errands before the day gets too advanced...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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