Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting sailingallover:
Ashes to ashes dust to to dust..

After 200 images of that blob on this blog, it's fading.

Quoting DestinJeff:


at some point it would be more eficient to speak in terms of days, rather than hours

I would say the next week...through the 18th is nothing in the ATL.

After that maybe another system around the Yucatan peninsula area, but the tracks seem to go WNW from there toward....you guessed it...northern Mexico...southern Texas.

If you're living in the USA it looks quiet and no problems for at least 10 days...maybe longer.

A couple of weeks ago I said we would have the "B" storm by the 15th and the "C" storm by the 20th....wrong.

Hey...maybe I should have said August!

Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey IKE, ATL may be quiet right now but the WPAC looks like its will has it's 1st system.

It's about time.

Quoting IKE:
Looks like the Brownsville,TX. airport got 3.63 inches of rain off of TD2 between July 7th-9th.

I've gotten 2.96 this month off of no TD.

Looks like dry weather for the next week in that area.

..............


This could go on for awhile...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Have we not all seen systems spin ip rather quickley seeaminly from out of no where? In 48 hours there could be something to at least watch?

Quoting Autistic2:



Have we not all seen systems spin ip rather quickley seeaminly from out of no where? In 48 hours there could be something to at least watch?

There's little to no model support for that time period. You've got high pressure strengthening over the Atlantic and firmly entrenched over the GOM.

SAL off of the coast of Africa. Shear blocking anything going into the Caribbean....good luck....

Quoting beell:


Splitting hairs, but I always called it a gyre. Spanning both oceans-when and if it appeared.

In any case, GFS is strong and steady on bringing another Pre-Alex synoptic set-up (strong and broad cyclonic flow) into the western Caribbean next weekend.

HPC's Tropical Desk labels it "Near Equatorial Trough" on their Caribbean Charts.

Atlantic Shows Little Signs of Activity
Jul 11, 2010 7:40 AM



There are no active storms in the Atlantic Basin at this time, and none are expected to develop over the next few days. A few tropical waves are passing through, however.

Currently, a tropical wave is near 32 west and stretching from 8-16 north. It looks like a lot of Saharan dust is with this feature, so no development is expected here. Another wave stretching across Puerto Rico draped from 9-19 north and 68 west. This is encountering shear with a low developing off to the north, so no development is expected with this. Another more impressive wave is pushing onshore in Central America near 6-16 north and 78 west. This system, while still over some water is moving inland, so no development is expected here.

Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Donald Pillittere

Quoting IKE:


There's little to no model support for that time period. You've got high pressure strengthening over the Atlantic and firmly entrenched over the GOM.

SAL off of the coast of Africa. Shear blocking anything going into the Caribbean....good luck....

Well I am off to church and then maybe I will go do a few "Dounias" in the boat. See if I can get anything spinning! Maybee the kids on a tube?
Have a good Sunday everyone.

Morning Ike, Jeff
And Jeff, it depends on which bloggers show up as to how many posts will be up by noon...LOL

Quoting msgambler:
Morning Ike, Jeff
And Jeff, it depends on which bloggers show up as to how many posts will be up by noon...LOL

I'm here! 39 to go!

Sealing Cap Installation Update

Installation of the sealing cap is proceeding as planned. The Discoverer Enterprise removed the LMRP cap at approximately 12:40 PM CDT on Saturday, July 10. The Discoverer Enterprise then moved off station. Following the removal of the cap, a subsea dispersant wand was inserted into the riser. Two plugs and all six flange bolts were then removed. The Discoverer Inspiration is now moving on station.

...
BP will host two technical briefings today, July 11, to provide updates on its subsea containment efforts. The briefings will be held at 7:30 AM CDT and 2:30 PM CDT




13 minute Video update:
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/sealingcapinstallationoverviewwithkentwells070910.htm

Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I'm here! 39 to go!

Not really what I meant...LOL but good morning allboardedup

Quoting msgambler:
Not really what I meant...LOL but good morning allboardedup

Good morning to you too.

Good Morning friends

A windsat from Africa for breakfast

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/4896/wmbds32noaa.png

Good morning everyone.

Germe's Windsat...

Quoting germemiguel:
Good Morning friends

A windsat from Africa for breakfast

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/4896/wmbds32noaa.png

Sorry Germe, need more than a Windsat to get me going.... [goes looking for coffee]

Quoting msgambler:
Morning Ike, Jeff
And Jeff, it depends on which bloggers show up as to how many posts will be up by noon...LOL

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Sealing Cap Installation Update

Installation of the sealing cap is proceeding as planned. The Discoverer Enterprise removed the LMRP cap at approximately 12:40 PM CDT on Saturday, July 10. The Discoverer Enterprise then moved off station. Following the removal of the cap, a subsea dispersant wand was inserted into the riser. Two plugs and all six flange bolts were then removed. The Discoverer Inspiration is now moving on station.

...
BP will host two technical briefings today, July 11, to provide updates on its subsea containment efforts. The briefings will be held at 7:30 AM CDT and 2:30 PM CDT




13 minute Video update:
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/sealingcapinstallationoverviewwithkentwells070910.htm

Hope this post helps the 1300 goal...LOL

Looks like the weather is going to hold for the capping operation, hopefully. From what I understand this new cap is forecast to capture over 95%, and perhaps 100%, of the leaking oil. Let's hope so.

Good Morning Friends......I think a lot of folks got excited with Hurricane Alex, as the "begining" of the highly touted active season, but climatology still rules for the time being in July. By this time in 2005, we were up to 5 named storms already but that year was quite an anomoly year which will probably not be repeated anytime soon. The offical gate for "clusters" of storms (as we actually saw in June and July of 2005) has not opened yet and may not start until August. But with an active season forecast, we should be thankfull that June and July, so far, have not been too eventful..........Nice to see the Tropical Atlantic quiet at the moment.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning everyone.

Germe's Windsat...

Nothing to really get excited over....
Don't forget this....

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Friends......I think a lot of folks got excited with Hurricane Alex, as the "begining" of the highly touted active season, but climatology still rules for the time being in July. By this time in 2005, we were up to 5 named storms already but that year was quite an anomoly year which will probably not be repeated anytime soon. The offical gate for "clusters" of storms (as we actually saw in June and July of 2005) has not opened yet and may not start until August. But with an active season forecast, we should be thankfull that June and July, so far, have not been too eventful..........Nice to see the Tropical Atlantic quiet at the moment.

This quiet time should be used to get fully prepared for those not prepared, cause it takes just 1 storm.

Quoting AussieStorm:

This quiet time should be used to get fully prepared for those not prepared, cause it takes just 1 storm.

Morning Aussie....Took some vacation time a few weeks ago and got "really" behind at work so I came in for the morning to work and blog without any distractions........ :)

Good Morning!

Looks like a good day to watch the Tour De France with no AOI to track! It's very hot here in DeLand, FL, the sky is a hazy greyish blue, yuk! No rain here sense the the 4th. Maybe some sea breeze storms will come this afternoon and clear out the haze.

I still don't understand why that low is analysed where it is off the Moroccan border, while nothing is shown nearer to 10N...

BTW, it's still mostly cloudy here, but with a bit more sun [for now, anyway] than yesterday.

I need to get off this blog and go run a couple errands before the day gets too advanced...

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Morning Aussie....Took some vacation time a few weeks ago and got "really" behind at work so I came in for the morning to work and blog without any distractions........ :)

Well, we do have Oil-watch. Or we could watch the WPAC system. I noticed on tonight's news that BP has taken the cap off the blown well to fit a bigger cap in a few days time, so a few days of oil flooding into the GOM means nothing to these people. So what if they have stepped up boom dragging behind boat then setting the oil on fire, Don't they know that's called air pollution. Which would mean it will pollute the air of many more than just where the oil hits the beaches.

That is a pretty nice LL spinner coming off Africa.....will probably be our next Invest. JUST in time for the BULK of MJO arrives.

Quoting beell:
The true test of this wave will be in a day or two. After it clears the monsoonal trough and strong surface convergence near the coast of Africa (hey, look! i used "monsoonal trough" in a sentence!)

Those monsoonal troughs are everywhere!

Quoting DestinJeff:
I bet we aren't to 1300 by noon Central.

Looks like our area or convection off Africa has gone pffft. Like someone took the air out of it and "put it to sleep with the fishes"!!

Wave off the coast of Africa still has an excellent structure forcthis time of year, but as I noted yesterday, the MIMIC-TPW signature is just not showing what we would look for as far as a potential for waves coming off the African coast to develop.

Quoting Bordonaro:

Looks like our area or convection off Africa has gone pffft. Like someone took the air out of it and "put it to sleep with the fishes"!!

SAL did that

Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is the breakdown as I see it ...

1 name in June
2 in July
4 in August
6 in September
3 in October
1 in November

Total: 17

I predict:
June-1
July=1-3
August=4-7
September=3-7
October=2-5
November=0-3
December=0-1
Total=11-27(worse than NHC but there is 99% probality of these numbers)

Morning all

Let's hope BP can do something right for a change

ah ha. no storms. no excitement. but thats a good thing, people forget what it's like with no power for a week to a month and damaged property. I remember them complaining about no ice cubes and not being able to bath for weeks on end.

About 60 waves come off of Africa every H-season and only a very small percentage actually make TD or greater status by the time they start approaching the Antilles....Good to wait until after they pass the Cape Verde islands to see how they hold up after making the transition to water.

Good morning.

The WPac is finnally heating up.

Here's Tropical Depression 03W:

It still has an impressive structure, but SAL is taking over fast. At this point I don't know if this wave will survive.

Good Morning to all

Blog Update

Why has the Northwestern Pacific been so inactive?

Lots of dry air to the North of the blob coming off of Africa as noted above:




For sure going WEST.....





Only 15-20 kts of Shear at the Max if that.....




SST's are ok in the area but, just a little cooler to the WEst....








Overall and after looking at everything with the CV blob......i would give it a 30% chance of Convection and a LLC develop in the next 72hrs as Dry air as the truly only obstacle to overcome and slightly cooler SST's to the West! Something truly to watch!

It is so nice to log on and not see all of the goons that have been invading the blog for the last couple of weeks.

Quoting PanhandleChuck:
It is so nice to log on and not see all of the goons that have been invading the blog for the last couple of weeks.

YA....LOL

Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning to all

Blog Update

Why has the Northwestern Pacific been so inactive?

Nice observations there 456 and hope you and your Family are doing fine.....So, if I read some of your analysis correctly, is there also an "uptick" in the Walker Circulation, combined with the La Nina conditions, which also contributes to suppressing W-Pac activity at the moment?

Ehh, the wave isn't as impressive as yesterday.. Though people do need to remember that it is ONLY July.. Things should ramp up by August, I'm still expecting 15-18 storms.

Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning.

The WPac is finnally heating up.

Here's Tropical Depression 03W:

yeah, and i'm not happy about it finally starting.

Quoting reedzone:
Ehh, the wave isn't as impressive as yesterday.. Though people do need to remember that it is ONLY July.. Things should ramp up by August, I'm still expecting 15-18 storms.

There have been several powerful Cape Verde-type hurricanes develop in July.

1. Allen (1980)
2. Bertha (1996)
3. Emily (2005)
4. Bertha (2008)

And these are just major hurricanes, I'm sure that there have been many more tropical storms and hurricanes originating from the Cape Verde's in July.

Quoting AussieStorm:

yeah, and i'm not happy about it finally starting.

How come?

Safe to say we hit 1300...

How is our African Wave looking today?