Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Levi32:


Lol, oh so then why do the ENE trade winds in the Caribbean come right across Central America and converge more normally into the ITCZ during the winter? Along with the southern hemisphere trade winds which are out of the SE like they could be. They then turn southwesterly during the summer, presumably from the extra heating of the northern South American continent and Central America.

January-February Climatological surface Winds:



July-September Climatological Surface Winds:

Only problem is I'm not seeing much of a difference of temperature between winter and summer over northern South America, and you wouldn't really since it's within 10 degrees of the equator. There's not even much difference in central America. It's only the Caribbean waters which warm up significantly between seasons. Perhaps it is the Caribbean itself which drives the monsoonal flow?

January-February Climatological Temperature:



July-September Climatological Temperature:

Got a loop of respectable length now....5 hours.

other than the wave by africa teh tropics have a hole lot of nothin going on for what looks to be a little wihle longer.

Clickable pic for a larger view.


gnight :)

yo tengo sueño
hasta mañana

Quoting Levi32:
Got a loop of respectable length now....5 hours.

the wave near Ghana has nice rotation

While I'm sitting here I'm updating hurricane supply list. I need to check tomorrow, but I'm sure we're out of some of this stuff, particularly sternos (gave away the last ones I had to someone having a cookout). This seems like a particularly appropriate time to ensure my list is up to date...

Quoting JRRP:

the wave near Ghana has nice rotation

Indeed it does....it may be more of a threat than our currently emerging one.

pretty impressive right now

Don't really expect to much from this wave at the moment. Plenty of sinking air and sal nearby.

oooh, well that wave looks like it's held up nice since I was last on this afternoon

Levi did you do "TT" for today?

Boring image, but good picture of the wave. Looks healthy.

j

Quoting BaltOCane:
oooh, well that wave looks like it's held up nice since I was last on this afternoon

Levi did you do "TT" for today?

No because my body is rebelling and no longer wakes to the alarm, so I slept in until 9:00 again lol. Should have one tomorrow....hopefully. I had this whole thing planned for this morning and then couldn't do it :S

Quoting Grothar:
Boring image, but good picture of the wave. Looks healthy.

Is it me or has this wave barely moved?....

Quoting TexasHurricane:


Is it me or has this wave barely moved?....

It's moving west at 10-15 knots. The convection which has been firing out ahead of it makes it seem like it's slower than that.

Quoting Levi32:


No because my body is rebelling and no longer wakes to the alarm, so I slept in until 9:00 again lol. Should have one tomorrow....hopefully. I had this whole thing planned for this morning and then couldn't do it :S

I don't blame you! I ddin't get out of bed till 11:45am.

The "TT"s are very good, so keep up the good work. :)

Quoting xcool:
j

I know you are a man of few words but "J" just isn't going to do it for us. What are you trying to say? LOL

Quoting Levi32:


It's moving west at 10-15 knots. The convection which has been firing out ahead of it makes it seem like it's slower than that.

oh ok.

11/0232 UTC 12.9N 134.3E T1.5/1.5 93W -- West Pacific


at last we may have a west pac TD soon

Quoting TexasHurricane:


Is it me or has this wave barely moved?....

Looks like the same position as this morning. It's like watching an NCIS marathon.

Grothar i delete my posting just put j

Geez, we were out of milk again...

Levi @ 1146 and 1148:

I guess it is to what degree you consider a reversal of the winds between NH Summer and Winter. If you exclude the northward shift of the ITCZ there is not much there. Certainly nothing approaching the WPAC and BOB monsoons.

But I can live with calling it a monsoon. I'm convinced, lol.

Quoting Grothar:


Looks like the same position as this morning. It's like watching an NCIS marathon.

No, it is moving. The curvature of the earth sometimes plays jokes on the eyes and the convection is expanding a little.

Quoting xcool:
Grothar i delete my posting just put j

Just fooling with you, xcool. Goodnight everyone.

Just got back on a few minutes ago...is there any reason this wave off of Africa won't develop or should we be seeing a yellow circle pretty soon?

Quoting beell:
Geez, we were out of milk again...

Levi @ 1146 and 1148:

I guess it is to what degree you consider a reversal of the winds between NH Summer and Winter. If you exclude the northward shift of the ITCZ there is not much there. Certainly nothing approaching the WPAC and BOB monsoons.

But I can live with calling it a monsoon. I'm convinced, lol.

Eh, I don't think I'm ok with calling it a "true monsoon" like the Indian and African monsoons, but the distinctly different qualities of this segment of the ITCZ demand a different name to distinguish it from the rest of the ITCZ, so I think monsoon trough fits the bill ok. We should both remember to ask 456....he has a million reasons why it's a real monsoon trough, but I never got to hear them all.

It does share most of the qualities of the west Pacific monsoon trough.

hi everyone first time blogger here
i have a feeling we will hear more about this one of the coast now for days to come because of the flare up of thunderstorm near the center and the low pressure movement

Quoting btwntx08:
heyyy

there you are have you been on a 24hr banned ?? been some time

hey btwntx08:

Quoting TexasHurricane:
Just got back on a few minutes ago...is there any reason this wave off of Africa won't develop or should we be seeing a yellow circle pretty soon?

The NHC will wait at least another 24-48 hrs to watch the latest wave as it moves westward off the coast of Africa. They have not even designated it as a tropical wave yet, however they did mention that it is an enhanced area of convergence on the ITCZ, nothing more.

We all are blob or wave watching at the moment as the Tropical Atlantic has gone quiet, at least for the moment :o)!

Quoting btwntx08:

nope just took a few days off

we had TD 2 not too long a go

Quoting btwntx08:

nope just took a few days off

Bet you are ready for a drying trend. Brownsville has seen about 15" of rain over the last 2 1/2 weeks!

Quoting Bordonaro:

The NHC will wait at least another 24-48 hrs to watch the latest wave as it moves westward off the coast of Africa. They have not even designated it as a tropical wave yet, however they did mention that it is an enhanced area of convergence on the ITCZ, nothing more.

We all are blog or wave watching at the moment as the Tropical Atlantic has gone quiet, at least for the moment :o)!

Thanks...just curious.

been on the original 12 hr. one for here when i first got a free membership
do u think that the nhc will put an invest name on it i think within 12-24 hrs

Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
been on the original 12 hr. one for here when i first got a free membership
do u think that the nhc will put an invest name on it i think within 12-24 hrs

I doubt it. They will wait for another 24 hours to see if it sustains this much convection and structure, but chances are that, as with a lot of waves, it won't. The dry air to the north may choke it. If it happens to survive and maintain its current presentation over the next 24 hours, they may label it an invest, but we'll have to wait until then and see how it looks.

wave at N CLEAN OUT SAL

Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
been on the original 12 hr. one for here when i first got a free membership
do u think that the nhc will put an invest name on it i think within 12-24 hrs

Probably not. This is how they described the area of disturbed weather moving off the W coast of Africa:

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 9N30W 5N41W 5N54W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 9N-12N. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 7N-12N E OF 19W
TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 36W-40W

Just need to wait, watch & see what happens, over the next 24-48 hours. There is a large area of SAL (Sahara Air Layer) a dry airmass the blows off the Sahara Desert, loaded with dry air and sand that may snuff the life out of this "wave" moving off Africa. It has been looking very healthy over the last 12-14 hrs.

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
You come on this time of night and you would expect the blog to be quite.Oh well.Any way I was just talking about the west pacific being dead.Looks like we could see a storm soon.Also the models are picking up on a strong storm in the east pacific.

Can you hear the crickets chirping and the pin that you just dropped hit the floor?? Just wait till the tropics really heat up, we may end up crashing the WU server (sure hopwe that NEVER happens)!

Quoting hurrkat05:
conditions are very hostile for anything to develop off the african coast..the dry air is very prevelant and will snuff out all the waves that try to develop..this should last until the end of july then things will calm down..don't look for anything to develop until then..

You may be right, however if one of the emerging waves beats out the SAL, by moving south of the SAL, or by one wave absorbing the blow and another moves off into a moist environment, then we may have a big problem. Not likely, but it is in the realm of possibility.

Quoting Bordonaro:

You may be right, however if one of the emerging waves beats out the SAL, by moving south of the SAL, or by one wave absorbing the blow and another moves off into a moist environment, then we may have a big problem. Not likely, but it is in the realm of possibility.

What do you mean by not likely? its definitely possible.