Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting BahaHurican:
I can't explain the way this unusually lingering trough / shortwave / low just off to our E / NE is making me feel somewhat perturbed...

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N70W
26N74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N
BETWEEN 68W-73W.

Better get used to that nearby trough BaHa. It is likely to be a recurring theme this season though the ridge will have its moments. There should be enough troughing draped near or over the SE Coast and Eastern Gulf to impact storm tracks and lead to a great deal of forecast uncertainty. The European mid range pressure pattern strongly hints at this possibility. Unlikely to be a Caribbean-Mexico-Texas only year as I have seen mentioned a few times lately. Might reconsider if the La Nina comes on strong and a strong negative NAO develops.

Quoting IKE:


I've heard it could be 4-7 days before the new cap is placed over the oil-volcano.

it will run un-abated for 48 hrs while the new cap is lowered and positioned by monday where at that time the oil flow may be finally contained for the first time since entire event began also note it will be the most pressure on BLOW OUT PREVENTER as well once the cap is placed to stop flow of oil and achieve 100 percent containment

Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
new picture

Pretty impressive. The wave seems to be sucking in all the thunderstorm activity to its east.

wave big ...hmmm

Oil gushing from broken well as BP replaces cap

10/07/2010 2:56:41 PM

CTV.ca News Staff
Underwater robots removed a containment cap over the gushing oil well in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday, the start of at least a two-day period where crude will flow freely into the water before a new cap is set in place.


BP spokesperson Mark Proegler said the cap was removed at 12:37 p.m. CDT to make way for the new, tighter cap, which will funnel more oil to a tanker on the water's surface.

"Over the next four to seven days, depending on how things go, we should get that sealing cap on. That's our plan," said Kent Wells, a BP senior vice president.








Company executives say the best-case scenario is that the cap starts to collect all of the oil leaking from the broken well by Monday.

The previous cap had been in place since June 4, but was failing to capture all of the crude.

The new cap -- dubbed "Top Hat Number 10" -- is expected to fit more snugly.

However, oil will gush unabated from the well for at least 48 hours while the cap is being replaced. That could mean as much as five million gallons of crude spilling into the ocean.

But the new cap will not fix the broken well. Both company and government officials say two relief wells being drilled so that heavy mud and cement can be injected to stop the flow remain the most promising permanent solution.

"I use the word 'contained,"' said retired coast guard admiral Thad Allen. "Stop is when we put the plug in down below."

After the cap was removed Saturday, work began on removing a bolted flange, or overhang, so what's called a flange spool can be placed over the drill pipe, to be connected to the new cap.

That work may continue into Sunday and it could be days after the new cap is installed before tests prove whether it's working.

The company is also trying to hook up another containment ship -- the Helix Producer -- to another part of the leaking well. The ship is capable of siphoning more than one million gallons of oil per day, and could be operational by Sunday.

Combined with the new cap, all of the estimated 2.5 million to 3.4 million gallons gushing from the well per day can be contained, Allen said.

The BP oil spill crisis began on April 20 when the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform exploded, killing 11 workers.

The spill is considered the worst in U.S. history.

With files from The Associated Press

Quoting stormlvr:


Better get used to that nearby trough BaHa. It is likely to be a recurring theme this season though the ridge will have its moments. There should be enough troughing draped near or over the SE Coast and Eastern Gulf to impact storm tracks and lead to a great deal of forecast uncertainty. The European mid range pressure pattern strongly hints at this possibility. Unlikely to be a Carribean-Mexico-Texas only year as I have seen mentioned a few times lately. Might reconsider if the La Nina comes on strong and a strong negative NAO develops.

Yah, all of that is why I keep feeling so glum about that trough location.... I'd be so much happier if t were much further east....

If the GFS verifies we are going to be in for some pretty nasty tropical activity. Be back in a bit.

delete

something posted on this page is requiring authorization, please remove it

Quoting xcool:

Xcool remove that link

What is this new pop up asking for your user name and password?

GFS 18z continues to indicate the possibility of development before the system undergoes cyclolosis.

Prolly xcools imagery, since it's not visible... there's a particular website one has to avoid, iirc...

?/

i fix it

GFS 18z initialized a 1010mb low about the area where the Windsat showed

Quoting Grothar:


You obviously don't know me well? Yes, of course I was kidding. I throw those little things out there to see if atmoaggie corrects me. Sigh, he always does.

No, I don't! (just did it again)

yellow come soon

GAME ON.

Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
What is this new pop up asking for your user name and password?

I got that too, I'm not dumb enough to fall for it though. WU works the same without it.

The GFS was right on target with the wave, the ParaGFS had no clue, so it seems the regular GFS is better at predicting Cave Verde lows.

MIMIC imagery is very telling. The "moisture contraction" seen in the last few frames at the African coast is usually indicative of a powerful and organizing tropical wave. Most waves don't survive that phase and go POOF when they emerge over water. This one looks to be doing just peachy.

july 20 2008 cape verde

GFS is developing the wave emerging off Africa that looks very impressive. It was emerging it at 48 hours earlier, now it shows it strengthening tomorrow. GFS naturally does better with storms like the CV disturbance than storms in the Caribbean that form similar to TD2 and Alex. I want to see more models jump on board first though.

Question for anyone who can answer...
IS the water off Cape Cad MA ever been in the 70's this early? There has been Great White sightings earlier than I remember?

Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Question for anyone who can answer...
IS the water off Cape Cad MA ever been in the 70's this early? There has been Great White sightings earlier than I remember?

Having lived on Long Island, the water temps off the Cape normally hit 70F is late August or early September, NOT in early July.

I am not sure about the Great White Shark sightings though, but I do believe they occasionally appear in the New England waters.

Quoting Bordonaro:

Having lived on Long Island, the water temps off the Cape normally hit 70F is late August or early September, NOT in early July.

I am not sure about the Great White Shark sightings though, but I do believe they occasionally appear in the New England waters.

Many Great Whites frequent the South African coast where temps are usually in the 50-70F range, so I don't see why they wouldn't be around in those temperatures. They are usually sighted off the Georgia coast in winter and spring, but are gone by the time temps hit 75F or so because its too hot for them.

I do know the seals and Tuna come north for the cooler waters and the sharks follow. If anyone has ever been in New England waters they are always cold. El Nina I guess.

According to the ERMA site the Loop Current is still well south of the rig site in the GOM. You can check this under Present Environmental Conditions, then Analysis/Nowcasts/ then under Surface Horizontal Current. Here is the link: Link
Roffs confirmed this also from their map from a few days ago: Link

Join us August 28th for Rising Tide 5

we need a td,ts or hurricane something to track this is boring i hope next week picks up

Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
I do know the seals and Tuna come north for the cooler waters and the sharks follow. If anyone has ever been in New England waters they are always cold. El Nina I guess.

The Gulf Stream veers to the east off the the NJ shoreline. The buoy about 225 miles east of Cape May, NJ will shoot up to 80F by the end of August.

The max water temps off the Mid Atlantic region reach 80F in late August, about 75F off Long Island, but hover near 70F near Cape Cod and the lower to mid 60's off of Maine, due to the cooler Labrador current near Nova Scotia.

We had some very strong winds a Hour ago from the Wave as it passed over and it looks like the wind reading device failed so i will have to go home to get a real reading of how strong it really was

Quoting Bordonaro:

The Gulf Stream veers to the east off the the NJ shoreline. The buoy about 225 miles east of Cape May, NJ will shoot up to 80F by the end of August.

The max water temps off the Mid Atlantic region reach 80F in late August, about 75F off Long Island, but hover near 70F near Cape Cod and the lower to mid 60's off of Maine, due to the cooler Labrador current near Nova Scotia.

Oh ok. Thanks for that info Bordonaro.

Quoting SavannahStorm:


MIMIC imagery is very telling. The "moisture contraction" seen in the last few frames at the African coast is usually indicative of a powerful and organizing tropical wave. Most waves don't survive that phase and go POOF when they emerge over water. This one looks to be doing just peachy.

Some cyclonic rotation can also be noted at the very end of the run.

Quoting HurricaneLovr75:


Oh ok. Thanks for that info Bordonaro.

Lived there in NY, been a weather nut since I was 7.

Quoting Grothar:


You obviously don't know me well? Yes, of course I was kidding. I throw those little things out there to see if atmoaggie corrects me. Sigh, he always does.

Ahh, what a relief. I mainly lurk and read, but it's good to have other smart*** people to laugh with.....

This area appears to be acquiring a more curved structure as if there was a somewhat strong closed surface circulation. Obviously, telling from the latest WindSAT there isn't but an interesting structure nonetheless.

AMSU microwave imagery shows the curvature just off the coast of Africa.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This area appears to be acquiring a more curved structure as if there was a strong closed surface circulation. Obviously, telling from the latest WindSAT there isn't but an interesting structure nonetheless.

what is the link to that site?

sat24.com