Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline
Hi all,
Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.
Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.
Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.
Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.
Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.
Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.
Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.
96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.
The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.
The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.
The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)
Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.
Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.
Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.
Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).
Reader Comments
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With such low surface pressures across the Yucatan, I think it's already trying to work its way down to the surface. I know it's not completely surface yet, but a 1006mb reading is relatively low.
UH OH ...psst hey Pat.. OFFFF TOPIC...??
TROPICAL WEATHER BLOG!!... TROPICAL WEATHER BLOG!!
LOL... man you set me up well for that and I drove it straight down the fairway!! LOL THANKS!!
Soooo much fun.
Do you think 96L will ever become Bonnie even?
That would be correct, at least through the mid-range. Our highs are supposed to be up around 95 through the period. Have you ever experienced heat like that, Levi? And before you ask, yes, I have experienced sub-zero temps like you get in Alaska. LOL.
Of course, you are the guy who did a two verse rendition off of Kesha's song. Now if you can expand on my first line and create another gem, LOL!
Yes, but all it takes is this one surface observation of southeast winds on the SW side of the swirl to show that there is absolutely no surface reflection yet. The NW winds on the southeast coast of the Bay of Campeche indicate the tendency for a broad low pressure to form in this area near the NW Yucatan, but current observations near the spin on visible imagery indicate that it is not working down to the surface yet. The increase in low-mid level vorticity indicates it may be working downward in the atmosphere slowly, but not to the surface yet.
Yeahhhh, but it's a dry heat!
I think it has a chance. If the upper high moves in tandem with it all the way across the Gulf, I'd give it a 50-60% chance. I think it's almost a certainty that it won't reach anywhere close to Alex's intensity since the waters have been upwelled. I wouldn't count out a minimal hurricane, especially if it goes farther north towards Central or Upper Texas coastline. The biggest thing is getting that spin all the way down to the surface.
Dry heat, something I'd like to have here once in a while...
Updated: 26 min 17 sec ago
Overcast
82 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 81 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the South
Pressure: 29.74 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 94 °F
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1500 ft
Overcast 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 33 ft
There are about 10 posts on this page of comments alone about this subject. Lol. Just read around. To answer your question, no.
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
Noon? They aren't that old. It is also similar to what is on WU right now as well. If there's something newer I don't see it.
18:00 UTC for July 6th is about as up-to-date as you can get for models...
I was thinking the Dynamic Models were showing more south earlier...now they are going more north?
Towards the end of the ECMWF's run it develops a CV storm, GFS parallel also supports a CV storm last I checked which is more reliable than the regular GFS. Seeing as there is a high amount of warm SST's out there, I'm fairly confident when I say that we'll have a CV strong TS or maybe a Hurricane by the end of the month. We've already seen the highly impressive waves roll of the coast and 92L which nearly became a TD.
I can't tell which they are but I love the two parallel tracks doing a doughnut in central Texas.
If one gets confused as to your local time vs UTC,..just go to your LocaL radar and the clock has it displayed to the Local
That image is showing yesterday's 18z model runs....notice the initialization position.
As of now it seems to be trying to fire some new convection but let see if it actually grows
oh ok...so what are they showing now?
It probably is, and needs to if this system wants to get organized at all past TD status even. It may not have time before it hits Texas remember this is another WPAC style system like Alex, with multiple centers battling it out. This will take as much time as Alex did to organize yet it has less room to work with.
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