Invest 95L Brushes Louisiana Coastline

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT en Julio 06, 2010

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Hi all,

Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff this week.

Midnight CDT Update
The low known as Invest 95L stopped it's northward progression and is now moving west along the Louisiana coastline. This is the oddest mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature I've seen in awhile. It's still producing a lot of rain, 2+ inches inland and 6+ inches over the ocean.


Base reflectivity from Lake Charles, LA at 11PM July 5 showing a very nice comma head. Animated loop.


Invest 95L is making landfall now in southern Louisiana near Terrebonne Bay. A CMAN station in Terrebonne Bay is currently reporting winds from the SE at 21 mph and the pressure is 1009 mb. Looking at the radar data, Invest 95L never had convection around the center of circulation. Also, it was hard to see a distinct surface circulation in the different analyses available. I believe soaking rains for southern Lousisana are going to be Invest 95L's main legacy. It's already produced 5+ inches of rain in some offshore locations according to radar-derived rainfall estimates.


Fig. 1 Meteogram for TRBL1 in Terrebonne Bay, LA. Tabular data are here.


Fig. 2 Base reflectivity from New Orleans, LA at 706PM, July 5. Animated loop.

Invest 96L
430 AM Update
In sum, the 00Z model runs don't present a different picture. It is curious to note that the Canadian Global model does not intensify 96L at all in the 00Z run, while NOGAPS has shifted towards a SE Louisiana landfall. I think the following discussion is still valid.

96L is going to be an interesting feature to forecast. It's still on the edge of a strong wind shear gradient. 40+ knots of shear are on the NE side of 96L, and <10 knots are on the SW side. The "center" of 96L is under about 15 knots of shear. This is likely inhibiting 96L. Nearly all forecast models take 96L NW through the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Near the Yucatan itself, sea-surface temperatures are relatively cool, not the best environment for intensification. However, at 25N, 87W there is a hotspot of SST's, which would promote rapid intensification. However, there's currently 20 knots of shear over the hotspot, so the thunderstorms that do form as a result will be well ventilated, and not cause 96L to intensify.

The dynamical models have different takes on how 96L intensifies in the next 120 hours. The 18Z operational GFS strongly intensifies 96L over the hotspot and takes 96L towards Grand Isle, LA. The parallel (for testing model configuration changes) GFS has a similar track, but does not strengthen 96L as much. This indicates uncertainty on how the models are handling the upper-level winds.

The 18Z HWRF solution is much like the parallel GFS solution. The 12Z Canadian global model has a more westerly track, pushing 96L towards Port Arthur, but it strengthens 96L right before it makes landfall, not when it's over open water. NOGAPS takes the "a little from column A, a little from column B" approach, with a spinup over the hotspot (op. GFS solution), but a westerly landfall (the Canadian solution). More data to initialize the models from synoptic reconnaissance flights will help reduce uncertainty.

The bottom line, 96L will move into the Gulf of Mexico and is then shrouded by the mists of uncertainty. I also think that it's a possibility (>50%) that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime in the next 48-72 hours (leaning towards sometime in day 2-3 based on the model runs.)


Fig. 3 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 GFS model run.Parallel GFS version.


Fig. 4 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 18Z July 5 HWRF model run.


Fig. 5 Plot of maximum winds (mph) for the next 120 hours from the 12Z July 5 CMC global model run.NOGAPS wind swath.

Next update
I'll probably tweak this blog later tonight as new model runs come in. I'll have a full update tomorrow afternoon (Pacific time).

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Good night msgambler!
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One fo da road upstairs to WUnderland here.

Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129792
bob brecks viper just called another one. bob said that blob will be in the gulf in morning and may be a problem down the road. viper has 96l making landfall in se.la. on wed or Thurs. he said he thinks viper has it moving too fast, but he's down with the landfall area and strength. viper did well with 95l, which bob said should be a t.d. wonder if viper will be right on 96l.
Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting Patrap:


Drive Vary carefully.
Ohh trust me I do, besides I ride behind dem things. I ain't crazy. I used to drive the trucks but got smart.
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This stalled out cold front over FL. is kind of unusual for this time of the year. So does anyone see this pattern continuing and what implications does this have for the rest of the hurricane season??
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
Thanks Pat....I know you aren't a Met but you make some really good posts with awesome information. I just thought you may have some additional insight for me. Thanks again



That's very Kind,..and have a safe week.
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129792
Thanks Pat....I know you aren't a Met but you make some really good posts with awesome information. I just thought you may have some additional insight for me. Thanks again
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Don't recall ever seeing this much dry air on the water vapor loop for North America.

http://www.weather.gov/sat_tab.php?image=wv

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Quoting msgambler:
Well Pat, water puppy, granny, I'm outta here. I have to be up early in the morning cuz we are heading back to Pat's neck of the woods and we don't want a repeat of a couple of weeks ago. Do we Pat?


Drive Vary carefully.
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129792
459. txjac
Thanks for the info boyroy
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Ok all, now I'm really off to bed. Have a pleasant evening everyone.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Well Pat, water puppy, granny, I'm outta here. I have to be up early in the morning cuz we are heading back to Pat's neck of the woods and we don't want a repeat of a couple of weeks ago. Do we Pat?
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Quoting leo305:
if 96L decides to become a TS by tomorrow night *possibly, who knows?* it could actually drag 95L or watever it may be by tomorrow night to the south.. into more water
It is unlikely that 96L will become a tropical storm by tomorrow, very actually, but if it does I do believe it will be strong enough to act as the weakness to pull 95L southward. Either way though, 95L will likely be too far inland to do anything.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting FKlusmann:
Alex still causing problems

Possible Rio Grande flooding on both sides of the border. Rain is now headed downstream into the Rio Grande River which may jump its banks.

The mosquitoes are crazzy now.


Local weather actually just mentioned some remnant moisture from Alex in SW Texas. That system just won't go away.

I'm expecting the explosion of mosquitoes here to begin any day now.
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

One to Bookmark if into the Spill


National Weather Service
New Orleans/Baton Rouge
Deepwater Horizon Decision Support Page
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129792
This is some pretty sic action we are seeing for the beginning of July...to have 3 storm in the gulf within a week is just not cool.
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Guess this is why I had kinda a bad feeling the other day about this area.
Photobucket
Well, I FINALLY got the "create a blog" button to work. Woo-hoo! That was an ordeal. LOL.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



96L may pull a fast one on us right be for land fall
I don't think it will go over the Yucatan, but if it does it is unlikely that it will play a major role in disorganization, might not even have an effect on it at all.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting leo305:
if 96L decides to become a TS by tomorrow night *possibly, who knows?* it could actually drag 95L or watever it may be by tomorrow night to the south.. into more water


No and No.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Shear stronger on the NE quadrant a little stronger than expected. Also, the anticyclone aloft isn't offering much "protection" from the unfavorable conditions.




96L may pull a fast one on us right be for land fall
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Alex still causing problems

Possible Rio Grande flooding on both sides of the border. Rain is now headed downstream into the Rio Grande River which may jump its banks.

The mosquitoes are crazzy now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if 96L decides to become a TS by tomorrow night *possibly, who knows?* it could actually drag 95L or watever it may be by tomorrow night to the south.. into more water
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Quoting zoomiami:


Is this a trick question?
LOL.... no! Seriously, they want to know if they can shop and ship without having to worry about their stuff being run over by storm surge while it it's sitting in the warehouse at Port Everglades .... lol ... I already told them what I think, but also promised I'd ask in here...
Member Since: Octubre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting msgambler:
Enjoy your vacation Rita. Hope it isn't too hot out there.


Thank you, 103 degrees with 10% humidity
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Quoting sarahjola:
do you think that it will start to get more organized tomorrow? what is your opinion on track? should we be worried. with 96l we will have more oil pushing in won't we? well, thanks in advance for your insightful opinion:)


Too early to tell.
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Quoting CapeObserver:


That is the last thing left on my list too. Fire up the genny. Someone mentioned a product called Sta-bil that helps gas to last longer. Going to invest in some of that as well and get ahead on gas storage.


I've been lurking on this blog since 2004, but never posted until now. I don't know very much about the weather and I leave that to the pros, such as Stormw, Weather456, Levi, Drakeon, and alike. However, when it comes to generators, (small engines in general), I do know about! A freindly and hopefully helpful piece of knowledge is to make sure, (and most generators should have them) that you turn of the gas valve coming out of the fuel tank and let the generator die due to running out of gas instead of turning of the kill switch. Most will probably wonder why that is important, and I will do my best to explain.

First off, I would like to let everyone know that riding out a hurricane may get ones adrenalin pumping, such as Frances, Jeanne that I road out, but the after affects cause the most chaos.

Gas in smaller quanities (such in the carborator) will become stail much quicker than larger quanities (such in the gas tank). When you run your generator's carberator dry of gas by letting it die, you insure that the next time you go start your generator it will start without problems. I must mention that stail gas setting in a carberator will gum up the jets in the carberator (regardless of the age of the generator) and your generator will not start when you need it most.

I hope I explained this so it's understandable. Most may thank I'm jibbering, but hopefully this will help some, so they are not stuck without atleast a generator when the winds blow there way.
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Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129792
Quoting Patrap:
96L is gonna Pop into the GOM proper come tomorrow and the place will be a Zoo by Noon.

Cool...

er,

I mean Kewl..
do you think that it will start to get more organized tomorrow? what is your opinion on track? should we be worried. with 96l we will have more oil pushing in won't we? well, thanks in advance for your insightful opinion:)
Member Since: Septiembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting RitaEvac:
Everybody hold the fort/Gulf down, I'm heading west.....BING, you are now free to roam the cabin
Enjoy your vacation Rita. Hope it isn't too hot out there.
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Shear stronger on the NE quadrant a little stronger than expected. Also, the anticyclone aloft isn't offering much "protection" from the unfavorable conditions.

Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The Tale of 2 GOM tonight.

Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129792
Quoting BahaHurican:
Nevil Shute always brings me down. That man wrote more pessimistic books than you can imagine... and he is one of my fave writers from that period (1930-60). Did u read "No Highway"?

Now that I think of it, he has several novels that, because they have to do with air or sea travel, are rather connected to wx....


No, Baha, never did. I was too busy with Aldous Huxley. haha
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Does the fact that Alex just ran a similar rout last week affect the SST's?
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tropical storm at best
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Interesting update by Dr Carver on 96L. The dynamic models aim the system at central to southeast Texas. However, the model runs that Dr. Carver referenced show southeast Texas to Grand Isle. Quite the spread.

Took a look at the steering layers and it appears to favor SW Louisian at the present time.

Hmmmmm.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Ya'll, it's 11:10 p.m. here... I need to actually get out and get stuff done before work 2morrow... so I will hit snooze about 5:30 a.m. and, depending on whether I can find and grind coffee beans with 1/2 an eye open, I will prolly check in on our fave current and former yellow circles after that.....

Enjoy the relatively leisurely pace of the blog, all.... u know that won't last...


OH, 1 last thing before I go... what are my chances of getting hit by a hurricane while in South Florida during

a) the last week of this month
b) the first week of next month
c) the second week of next month?

[I don't mean me personally - I know some pple who are looking for travel wx advice...]


Is this a trick question?
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
Good evening Pat...what are you predictions for 96L? I live on the middle Texas Coast?
That's likely where it'll go. PSU e-WALL steering along with 00z model plots suggest a Texas landfall, particularly central to northern Texas.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Nice blow up about to leave the African coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg

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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
Good evening Pat...what are you predictions for 96L? I live on the middle Texas Coast?


I dont do predictions as Im not a met.

I'd follow the Guidance and the NHC .

Nothing can sneak up on yas with the Planet watching from here.

I'd take some preliminary steps just to be on the safe side of the song.
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129792
Quoting ElConando:


The real question is, how did you get in and see?
I see, I thought I saw...see.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, I dig $2.00 / gal prices in S.FL... helps a LOT when I need to make a trip over there ... lol ... plus it's nostalgic [remember when gas used to be $2.00 a gallon? yeah... we used to wear gabardine and bell bottoms... lol]

To be fair, I hear it's worse in Europe...


I'll always remember the first time I paid $1.999 for gasoline. It was the lead-up to the Rita evacuation. I was sitting in line to top off one of the cars (I topped off pretty well every day that week). I was at a Valero, listening to the radio talking about Rita having become more intense than Katrina. The Valero was out of everything but premium, and that was $1.999.
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Ya'll, it's 11:10 p.m. here... I need to actually get out and get stuff done before work 2morrow... so I will hit snooze about 5:30 a.m. and, depending on whether I can find and grind coffee beans with 1/2 an eye open, I will prolly check in on our fave current and former yellow circles after that.....

Enjoy the relatively leisurely pace of the blog, all.... u know that won't last...


OH, 1 last thing before I go... what are my chances of getting hit by a hurricane while in South Florida during

a) the last week of this month
b) the first week of next month
c) the second week of next month?

[I don't mean me personally - I know some pple who are looking for travel wx advice...]
Member Since: Octubre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Everybody hold the fort/Gulf down, I'm heading west.....BING, you are now free to roam the cabin
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Good evening Pat...what are you predictions for 96L? I live on the middle Texas Coast?
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B8 38 dBZ 4,000 ft. 1 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 40 knots ENE (61)

Some of those Coc storms are moving Nw at 40 Knts..

Impressive .

Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129792
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am starting to worry.. Lights are on... but no one appears to be home :)


The real question is, how did you get in and see?
Member Since: Septiembre 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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