Little change to 93L; Brazilian floods kill 42
There has been little change over the past 24 hours to the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Haiti. The storm has brought heavy rains to the waters south of Hispaniola, with radar precipitation estimates from the Puerto Rico radar of over six inches of rain in the past day. The heaviest rains have avoided land areas so far. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm (Bahahona and Kingston) are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, though there is a modest patch of dry air to the storm's southwest. This dry air is likely contributing to the lack of heavy thunderstorms on 93L's west side, slowing development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 15 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.
Track forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Thursday afternoon, with Friday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air limited, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday, except for possible interaction with land. There is a low (less than 20% chance) of 93L becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Thursday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday through Friday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and Saturday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF models. This seems like a likely solution, since recent runs of most of the models have been showing a stronger trough. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the NOGAPS and Canadian models, which foresee a more westerly track for 93L across the Yucatan Peninsula, with the storm eventually threatening Texas by Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and UKMET models do not develop 93L. A likely landfall location is highly uncertain this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle given the current uncertainty in its development, and the strength of next Monday's trough that may steer 93L northwards.
Intensity forecast for 93L
Forecasting the amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is problematic. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and most of the models predict that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. This should allow 93L to intensify to at least a 50 mph tropical storm, as predicted by the HWRF model. The GFDL and ECMWF models are calling for 93L to become a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, and this is certainly a possibility. I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.
Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Figure 2. Total accumulated precipitation in millimeters (left) for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT June 21, 2010. The yellow colors (200+ mm, 8+ inches) are where extreme flooding was observed. Satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument (right) for June 17, 2010, showing heavy thunderstorms over the Alagoas state of Brazil. Image credit: NASA and NOAA Climate Prediction Service.
Floods in Brazil kill dozens
Heavy rains over the past week in the northeast state of Alagoas in Brazil have led to major flooding that has killed at least 42 people. Six hundred people are still missing. This weekend rains in Alagoas and Pernambuco states are the latest in a series of devastating floods to strike Brazil this year. Since the start of Brazil's rainy season last November, 488 people have been killed by flooding and 7.5 million have been affected in 10 states. Much of the heavy rains can be blamed on El Niño, which ended in May. In April, flooding and landslides triggered by torrential rain killed at least 229 people and did $13.3 billion in damage in the Rio de Janeiro area.
It's been a bad year for floods, and there are two other major flooding disasters that have occurred in the past week. In China, the death toll has risen to 211 people, with 119 people missing, because of flooding in the southern portion of the country. France suffered a flash flood last week that killed 25.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That was a Messy day.
And you still owe me for the Car wash
I will say that I've been called a lot of things here, but this is a first...LOL
Hey, I told you to look out for the giant grey flying thing...you just kept right on going...
Good obs.
Its June too..not August 29th.
Hurricane Cindy struck the Night July 5th-6th 2005
I know ..but those She Ladies were waving at Us and I got distracted as usual..
There it is? the NEW KATRINA, hopefuly the model's are wrong
Last major cane in the Gulf I can find in June was a "no-name" in 1945 that hit Cedar Key as a Cat 3 around July 1st; then Alma in 1996 which made landfall in Apalachicola in Florida on June 14th as a Cat 2.....
GRAPHICS UPDATE
I am watching to see what the 93 L does.
How are ya?
D
Those were the days, huh?
Not bad...hey, call me, huh?
Id take a Gander at 1957's Audrey as that was the Worst Storm in June History ever,,and the Biggest loss of Lives till the 2005 season.
Formed June 25, 1957 (1957-06-25)
Dissipated June 29, 1957 (1957-06-30)
Highest
winds
145 mph (230 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 946 mbar (hPa; 27.94 inHg)
Fatalities 416[1] direct
Damage $147 million (1957 USD)
$1.1 billion (2010 USD)
Areas
affected Eastern Texas, Louisiana, parts of the South Central United States
Might wanna wait for a well developed surface circulation. Not actually sure what justified a bump to 30 percent this morning form tpc other stacy being at the desk. Still love ur detailed discussions at times.
U betcha..
And no Tax filings too.
Twas sweet days fo sho man.
And that Peyote farm we ran.
Twas righteous
And thee tore up the soles of thy sandals trying to swerve and miss one.
You are correct; I missed it....Audrey made landfall in Cameron, LA around June 29, 1957 as a Cat 4.
'Tis true, and they being my favorites!
1. Great Galveston Hurricane (TX) 1900 4 8000 (estimate)
2. FL (Lake Okeechobee) 1928 4 2500
3. Katrina (LA/MS/FL/GA/AL) 2005 3 1833
4. Cheniere Caminanda (LA) 1893 4 1100-1400 (estimate)
5. Sea Islands (SC/GA) 1893 3 1000-2000 (estimate)
6. GA/SC 1881 2 700 (estimate)
7. Great Labor Day Hurricane (FL Keys) 1935 5 408
7. Last Island (LA) 1856 4 400 (estimate)
9. Audrey (SW LA/N TX) 1957 4 390
10. LA (Grand Isle) 1909 4 350
Just noticed that two of the top ten occurred in 1893. That must have been a nightmare year...
We have a new person in our office from Kansas. It's fun really freaking him out talking about our evacuation plans and emergency hurricane procedures. :)
kinda like "free beer tommorrow"
O yeah..a good read.
Is there any other really good books out there that some of you could recommend that I pick up? I'm a big reader and a big weather freak and would love to combine the two.
"shrinkage"
It's mean to mess with the new guys...though it IS fun
Ummm, I'm sorry, I think I'll take the 5 day advance notice of a Hurricane vs the 5 second notice of a tornado ... sorry
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/wrf/wrf_atl_mer.html
Just hit the book store, or amazon, to see what they have; the best reading out there (if you really wanna go deep into this) are the scientific journals like Journal of Atmospheric Science where many of the scholars and NHC folks publish great articles every year on the cutting edge anylysis and forecast issues....Worth the price of a subcription.
Agreed, I am from Kansas. Nothing like the 10 second dash grabbing what you need during a tornado.
Thank you much. Will do.
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