New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 728 - 678

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

728. xcool
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z


Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Orange alert for 93L.


With the Sheer Forecast it should have went to 40%....How many believe right now that a TD will form in 48hrs........I DO!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting connie1976:
Thanks all for answering my question!! I HATE when the power goes out.....when I lived in Orlando and Charlie came...we were out of power for a WEEK!!!! I thought that I was going to die....lol...

My longest without power was for 1 month after Dean (2007).
Member Since: Mayo 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting xcool:
Stormchaser2007 hey


Hey, whats up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
"I can't beieve the NHC is being so CONSERVATIVE on 93L! What more do you need to expect a TC to develop? An invitation?"

SARCASM FLAG: ON


Glad you cleared that up before you got bashed LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
GoodOleBudSir -

I live near Weston....so maybe I will be lucky!!


Howdy neighbor. Plantation here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I guess I was right about the TWO for once lol...showing some signs of organization and 30% orange alert
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Orange 30%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oil-Zilla is in da making..


DWH Oil site should review their Emergency Exit Plans
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
718. xcool


Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Orange alert for 93L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GoodOleBudSir -

I live near Weston....so maybe I will be lucky!! ...or maybe I will be real lucky and a storm won't come near here!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

14N 69W

Edit: I had a bad link. Zoom in to those coordinates on visible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30% code orange
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
712. IKE
...30 PERCENT...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
711. xcool
Stormchaser2007 hey
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting Funkadelic:


Well to answer your question, it all depends on the strength of the storm. For example here in west palm beach during wilma, I was without power for 5-6 days. And underground lines do help with the restoring of power after a hurricane.


i noticed that western palm beach county lost power quicker - but it could have been a planned shutdown because of water which stands quicker and longer out there. they have underground wires.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


That's a good question...the folks that could best answer that might be your local power company.


Having underground power lines will generally shorten the time needed to restore power. The problem that remains is that the Transmission lines ( high voltage ) that carries the power from the generating plant to the sub-stations for distribution are typically located overhead and in an intense hurricne scenario will suffer damage. Those lines would have to be replaced in order to restore power to the underground lines serving homes and businesses.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
707. xcool
wow 30
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Should we be looking at normal July tracks if 93L develops or are the tropics still in a June type track pattern?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Up to orange at 2pm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey!! I was right, 30%!! Go me... Orange code! Was a possibility in my books.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
703. xcool
tropical weather,
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Code Orange it is
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
A hand held battery charger for your cell phone can be a life saver. Especially when everything within 40 miles of you has been wiped off the Earth.


yea, including the cell towers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Should be Orange at 40% for something to develop in 48HRS


That's my thinking. Perhaps a bump up to 30%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hope i posted this correctly this is what i was asking about earlier

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010062112&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN



Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
Quoting connie1976:
Question all....I live in South Florida and where I live the power lines are underground....How long is the power out for after a hurricane when you have lines that are underground....does the fact that they are underground help any?


Not sure how long but I know people in Weston that never lost power. If I recall, the people in Weston that did lose power got it back relatively quick. Not sure if this had to do with their powerlines being under ground or not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Sorry but JB is wrong a strong trough up in the NE US will create a weakness in the ridge and send 93L N.

I said the same thing about 92L last Tuesday..
That Low and weakness never developed..the ridge got stronger in the western Atlantic...
Then I said the same thing Saturday and the forecast for the ridge changed AGAIN Saturday afternoon..
USUALLY the forecast for the High,Ridges and Lows above 25N are pretty dead on but I've eaten two dead crows for forecasting tracks based on them..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Go here and zoom in at 14N 69W. See if you can see what I see:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
I thought that this was a weather place and not a politics place....lol.... :)


I know, we have a serious potential situation on our hands and someone comes in talking about how bad the Bush Admin. is.. It's been 2 years, time to move on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey you know what is a good hurricane food? I love those starkist pouches of "sandwich ready" tuna, eat it for lunch all the time. only has a hundred calories and water chestnuts and pickles. i buy three or four extra every time i go to the store. and sardines.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
I thought that this was a weather place and not a politics place....lol.... :)


Keep yer head down, lass...it's about to blow in fast and furious!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What do you all think...Code Orange in a few minutes?


Should be Orange at 40% for something to develop in 48HRS
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Thanks all for answering my question!! I HATE when the power goes out.....when I lived in Orlando and Charlie came...we were out of power for a WEEK!!!! I thought that I was going to die....lol...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not really a necessity but a week after Wilma there was no bread to be found .My local neighborhood store owner drove 100 miles north and loaded up his suv with bread that was snapped up in a day.Of course you need cash because of no electricity so it was cash only.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
687. myway
Quoting connie1976:
Question all....I live in South Florida and where I live the power lines are underground....How long is the power out for after a hurricane when you have lines that are underground....does the fact that they are underground help any?


Depends on if you loose transmission lines or if downed tree roots tear up the underground system. Underground problems are harder to find.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Garage keep.......everything comes inside.


yeah i was actually thinking about where to put my horses since some people are forecast8ing black toxic rain inland from the gulf if a storm ever comes. i dont want my animals in black toxic rain. kidding. but not. maybe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I thought that this was a weather place and not a politics place....lol.... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
684. FLHL2
Quoting Funkadelic:


Maybe I'm blind.. Would love to see what you are seeing. Some one just posted the 12z CMC and showed nothing of what you have spoken of.


check out the latest GFS @ 850mb vorticity
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormGoddess:

ROFLOL. That's hilarious. Especially about the raccoons. :)


You know, I went on a walk on Friday night and did see a raccoon which is very unusual since I live on an island... Would that be considered unusual?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now



3 Hours ago



Vorticity migrating offshore towards 93L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
McClatchy:

"The Minerals Management Service had never required any of these backup systems to be tested despite a report it commissioned in 2003 that said these systems "should probably receive the same attention to verify functionality" as the rest of the blowout preventer. The agency had also declined to take the modest step of requiring rigs to have these backup systems in place at all, though it had sent out a safety alert encouraging their use. "

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 728 - 678

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
71 ° F
Nublado