Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

You're all right but it went by another name
5 points for the other name
50 for the explanation

Quoting amd:


I think the wave behind 93L is the bigger threat. It has a much stronger circulation at 850mb compared to 93L, and has more time for the shear to completely lessen in the Caribbean.

Disorganized, though.

Out to play tennis. Back later.

Quoting Patrap:


He was a Good Man for sure..and very modest as well

The truly good ones always are.

Quoting Claudette1234:


93L ASCAT uhmm could be dangerous

Looks like an LLC is trying to form, but not there yet. You can see a donut of wind, but half of it is going the wrong way.

It's got alot of potential but needs more time, maybe couple more days.

Quoting Chicklit:
bingo.
the problem with the entire scenario is everything is in place for rapid intensification which models cannot handle.

What would be the first sign of rapid intensfication?

The 1869 Saxby Gale:

On October 4, a hurricane was first observed east of South Carolina. It moved rapidly northeastward, hitting Cape Cod on the 5th and Maine later that day. It turned northeastward, dissipating over northern New Brunswick that night. The storm caused widespread damage, as well as 37 deaths.

The storm is known as the Saxby Gale because of a prediction by Stephen Martin Saxby on December 25, 1868. However, he gave no mention of the location of the storm. Another person, Frederick Allison, gave detail of where and when it was going to hit. Nonetheless, when the storm happened, more remembered Saxby's prediction.

thanks!

Quoting Chicklit:
I wish someone would address the wave at 55-60 and tell us what effect this and 93L will have on each other. Typically, the stronger one will take over. Looks like the eastern wave has a surface low but not much else and 93L is just the opposite!

I have, and yes it does have a decent amount of vorticity, but it's embedded in the itcz, so in the very short term, 93 is the one to watch, and despite what the models say and yes, convection has waned a bit, I think its presentation on satellite has improved dramatically since this morning. I suspect the next cimss vorticity map will have a bit more yellows and oranges. After 36 hrs, I think the next wave will have a much better chance and it could have a shot. The second wave is kind of close to 93 and SA to develop right away. We will see! Right now, they are both rather similar in appearance and development, but like I stated above, 93 has a lot more going for it in the near term.

93L Early Cycle Intensity Model

18Z

Quoting tropicaltank:
What would be the first sign of rapid intensfication?

It rapidly intensifying.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Pretty interesting graphic, shows some circulation, just do not know how they extrapolate it into the animation.

the point was to test your knowledge not to get it right I guess that's why my last question was so hard all the cheaters went silent

Quoting tropicaltank:
What would be the first sign of rapid intensfication?

finding the low level center and wrapping (counter clockwise)... thanks guys, by the way, for answering my question! now i can leave for a while...

oh snap

I'm really interested in the banding 93 is presenting. Could develop a closed surface low very soon..imo. Is looking good despite the relative lack of deep convection near what you could call the center.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
the point was to test your knowledge not to get it right I guess that's why my last question was so hard all the cheaters went silent

or we just stopped caring lol

Quoting GatorWX:


I have, and yes it does have a decent amount of vorticity, but it's embedded in the itcz, so in the very short term, 93 is the one to watch, and despite what the models say and yes, convection has waned a bit, I think its presentation on satellite has improved dramatically since this morning. I suspect the next cimss vorticity map will have a bit more yellows and oranges. After 36 hrs, I think the next wave will have a much better chance and it could have a shot. The second wave is kind of close to 93 and SA to develop right away. We will see! Right now, they are both rather similar in appearance and development, but like I stated above, 93 has a lot more going for it in the near term.

93L just hit DMIN.

Viz



WV



RGB to (Night IR)


Rainbow

Quoting cg2916:


It rapidly intensifying.

jer...

Don't be too fooled by visible, the early evening contrast can be deceiving.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
You're all right but it went by another name
5 points for the other name
50 for the explanation

the september gale..ding ding

I believe we will break the John Hope rule,regarding cyclogenesis in the Carib.

1961 you said more than I knew but you gave no mention to how Saxby made his prediction it is a crucial part of the tale

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Wind Shear is low across the whole Caribbean.

Not completely, shear is between 15-25kts between Haiti and the Yucatan, N of 15n. You can see the clouds ahead of 93 and on its w side being sheared just a bit. Is lessening though. 93 is the one to watch in the short term, imo.

Pretty good shape for DMIN.

Try tinypic, then people can't cheat.

Quoting tropicaltank:
What would be the first sign of rapid intensfication?

A tropical depression or storm forming.

Wow, look at the intensity models. Some show a major hurricane, and some RIP it. LOL

93L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Be sure to check the SST and MSLP Box

93L is rapidly intensifying.

Quoting CaneWarning:
Wow, look at the intensity models. Some show a major hurricane, and some RIP it. LOL

yup lol

i now see a pine hole eye with 93L

While we're admiring our 30% in the ATL, the EPac is practically frothing.... lol

Quoting tropicaltank:
I believe we will break the John Hope rule,regarding cyclogenesis in the Carib.

I don't think that applies after SA.

Quoting BahaHurican:
While we're admiring our 30% in the ATL, the EPac is practically frothing.... lol

i see a downgrade comeing for 95E

Taz you are on the fast track to many peoples' ignore lists if you keep posting that way

Quoting Tazmanian:
i now see a pine hole eye with 93L

Not march logger?

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Taz you are on the fast track to many peoples' ignore lists if you keep posting that way

lol



cant i have a little fun lol

My thoughts on 93L:

next update - will remain the same (medium - 30%)

red circle sometime tomorrow or tomorrow night

Could jump straight to TS Alex status by Thurs or Friday in the Western Caribbean.