Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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151. Drakoen 3:28 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Looks like we will be getting an Ascat pass on the system. Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

152. JDSmith 3:28 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: I CAN'T BELIVE THIS WE HAVE 93L AND THIS IS THE BEST ONE YET AND THERE ISENDING OUT THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INTO IT THE NHC BUMP IT UP TO 20% FORECAST BRINGS IT TO OUR AREA THIS THING IS GOING TO BE ALEX AND MIGHT GET RETIERD WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 632W, 25, 1009, DB, AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 645W, 25, 1009, DB, AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 128N, 659W, 25, 1009, DB, AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 25, 1010, DB, You trippin, holmes. Chillax and watch the show. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 85

154. CybrTeddy 3:29 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
If 92L pulls that whole surface circulation drama like half the storms in 2008 I'm really going to be driven out of my mind. Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

155. IKE 3:29 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO 1030 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS N GULF KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH TUE. WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN REACH STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING W ACROSS S PART OF BASIN THROUGH THU. BROAD LOW PRES ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN FRI EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE GULF. Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

156. CaneWarning 3:29 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting connie1976: ...lol... bad wording....most likely would probably have been better? I think you can't even say that about S. Florida and Tampa. The whole state and GOM need to watch this one. Member Since: Abril 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

157. CybrTeddy 3:30 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
A possible system in terms of track and intensity to compare what 93L might do is Claudette 2003. Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

158. tillou 3:31 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Give it some time folks and the closed low will develope. This is going to be a long year. :( Member Since: Agosto 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 196

159. cyclonekid 3:31 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting muddertracker: Alex, Andrew, Alicia...did I miss any first majors? I'm sure I did. Audrey (Cat 4) 1957 I believe. Member Since: Julio 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

160. FLWeatherFreak91 3:31 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: I think you can't even say that about S. Florida and Tampa. The whole state and GOM need to watch this one. Worry about the Caribbean for the time being. It's going to cause a lot of rainfall somewhere at least. Member Since: Diciembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

161. Drakoen 3:32 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
For anyone look for a floater I think this functions pretty well as one: SSD PR Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

162. Patrap 3:32 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Well,..Oil Zilla is Born maybe. So we have the Grace of time and some good tools when she POPS later downstream. G-4 flights,..HH runs..,Jeff Masters,and a Bleacher full here as well, so this may be the most observed Storm ever. Stop saying "Yucatan" Ike.. Ya gonna give me da willie's. J/K Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

163. Waltanater 3:32 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
The floater may be, but the reference itself is not. That is still on the nhc site. Just wondering... Thanks though. Member Since: Mayo 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 932

164. CaneWarning 3:32 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Worry about the Caribbean for the time being. It's going to cause a lot of rainfall somewhere at least. I'm not worried about that area quite so much since I don't live there. Member Since: Abril 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

166. Patrap 3:33 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: I'm not worried about that area quite so much since I don't live there. You should go into Politics instead of weather then. Maybe Texas. Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

167. Hurricanes101 3:34 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting cyclonekid: Audrey (Cat 4) 1957 I believe. Allen too Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

168. Floodman 3:34 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Ok tone down the caps, makes you seem like you are panicking He IS panicking! Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

169. Chicklit 3:34 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Figure 2 (above) is a great map visually! The Central Florida met on Brighthouse an hour ago didn't know there was an invest in the Caribbean, was still calling it a wave, and said shear would break it up. Member Since: Julio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

170. CaneWarning 3:35 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Patrap: You should go into Politics instead of weather then. Maybe Texas. I said I'm not worried about that area, I didn't say I didn't care about that area. Member Since: Abril 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

171. OminousCloud 3:35 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
hello everyone. this is my first time posting . i just want to say i enjoy reading most of the info and comments you guys post . this site is definitely more informative than the television staions in my area. now, can anyone tell me if 93L will effect Central/Southern Florida? thanx. Member Since: Junio 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 73

172. Drakoen 3:36 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Funkadelic: I feel that we will be having more then one storm in the Caribbean this weak. I was looking at the NAM model at 84HRS and it is showing "3" areas of low pressure. What are you thinking Drak? Not a fan of the NAM. It seems the NOGAPS tries to develop 93L and the system behind it. The CMC develops the system behind 93L. Very complex situation. Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

173. NOLALawyer 3:36 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting IKE: Unless/until it changes course, it looks headed for the Yucatan. You can hope, right? Member Since: Septiembre 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 517

174. Patrap 3:36 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: I said I'm not worried about that area, I didn't say I didn't care about that area. Well thats makes sense. I defer then. And will sip on my Java roni and re-load the GFS. Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

175. Drakoen 3:36 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Floodman: He IS panicking! Where's it gonna hit!?!?!?!?! Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

176. CybrTeddy 3:36 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Figure 2 (above) is a great map visually! The Central Florida met on Brighthouse an hour ago didn't know there was an invest in the Caribbean, was still calling it a wave, and said shear would break it up. I watched that met too.. evidently he hasn't looked at the shear forecast.. or the conditions in the Caribbean. Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

177. AussieStorm 3:36 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting JDSmith: You trippin, holmes. Chillax* and watch the show.* Hey, that's my word... lol Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13362

178. CyclonicVoyage 3:36 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting leo305: The low to the east of 93L is looking better on satellite.. its moving WNW/NW so it looks like it may run into 93L.. and take over potentially as the CMC may be hinting at.. who knows.. scottsvb knows his stuff, that could be the one to watch down the line as far as the US is concerned. Member Since: Enero 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

179. Ameister12 3:36 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
93L Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

180. helove2trac 3:37 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting OminousCloud: hello everyone. this is my first time posting . i just want to say i enjoy reading most of the info and comments you guys post . this site is definitely more informative than the television staions in my area. now, can anyone tell me if 93L will effect Central/Southern Florida? thanx. hi we dont know yet it not even a storm

181. Walshy 3:37 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting OminousCloud: hello everyone. this is my first time posting . i just want to say i enjoy reading most of the info and comments you guys post . this site is definitely more informative than the television staions in my area. now, can anyone tell me if 93L will effect Central/Southern Florida? thanx. No, they can not just yet. Member Since: Mayo 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 618

182. AllStar17 3:37 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Member Since: Junio 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

183. Grothar 3:37 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: For anyone look for a floater I think this functions pretty well as one: SSD PR The old floater on 92L on the NOAA site still gives a pretty good image of 93L. At least it looks like 93L Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19554

184. PanhandleChuck 3:37 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Well this is enough reason for me to go and fill the gas cans. I know it's a long way out, but I'd rather get my stuff now, before media starts to hype this up. I have not been too worried in the past 3 years, about a storm heading my way, but...... StormW, I think it was the oil in Mother Natures Corn Flakes, not the stuff that turns snow yellow up North. Member Since: Mayo 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

185. FLWeatherFreak91 3:37 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Losing some of its deep convection at this time. Member Since: Diciembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

186. WaterWitch11 3:38 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
i have never seen a shear map like the one dr. masters posted. it so easy to understand. is this available somewhere? Member Since: Agosto 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266

187. soloco 3:38 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting helove2trac: well he has a map on there Big as day that says LOW SHEAR CAN YOU SEE Chill out! It was a valid question. Member Since: Julio 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 73

189. Patrap 3:39 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
I gots a great deal on 4 cases of FRESCA yesterday. Also picked up some Tiki Torch Fuel. Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

190. srada 3:39 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
I just think its too early to be relying on model tracks for 93L..this could be a storm from mexico to the eastern seaboard..its a wait and see situation.. Member Since: Agosto 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

192. germemiguel 3:39 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
93L/Alex gonna hit Cayman Island, East Yucatan, West Cuba and Texas...... Member Since: Junio 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74

193. CaneWarning 3:39 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck: Well this is enough reason for me to go and fill the gas cans. I know it's a long way out, but I'd rather get my stuff now, before media starts to hype this up. I have not been too worried in the past 3 years, about a storm heading my way, but...... StormW, I think it was the oil in Mother Natures Corn Flakes, not the stuff that turns snow yellow up North. I always go and get my stuff just before the NHC posts watches or warnings for my area. The media doesn't normally really panic people until then. Member Since: Abril 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

194. smmcdavid 3:39 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Patrap: You should go into Politics instead of weather then. Maybe Texas. Hey Pat... Texas didn't do anything. :) Member Since: Septiembre 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309

195. Grothar 3:39 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
See old 92L floater is showing 93L. I have contacted NOAA and they are working on it. Waiting for the data to come in first. Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19554

196. Floodman 3:40 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Where's it gonna hit!?!?!?!?! His backyard? MY BACKYARD!?!?!?! LOL...making a popcorn and Dr. Pepper run...anyone need anything? Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

197. Patrap 3:40 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting smmcdavid: Hey Pat... Texas didn't do anything. :) I was chiding the Distinguished Sen. Barton. Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

199. Hurricanes101 3:40 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Patrap: I gots a great deal on 4 cases of FRESCA yesterday. Also picked up some Tiki Torch Fuel. you may be handing out quite a bit of Fresca lol Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

200. CaribbeanIslandStorm 3:40 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Inside a Tornado http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/storm-chasers-bloody-tornado-ambush.html

201. RJT185 3:41 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
"Que no cunda el panico!" as the Chapulin Colorado used to say on an old-school TV show. I was about to start handing out Xanax for a while there. Any confirmation on when the next ASCAT pass might be made available online? I'm curious to see if the system has begun developing circulation since the vorticity signatures were almost nil this morning. Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 250

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