Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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1001. Levi32 6:56 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
ECMWF 216 hours....see how it's weaker and more WNW track. These things aren't set in stone and will swing back and forth. Can't put much stock into any of these runs. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1002. twhcracker 6:56 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: I don't think it's 60,000 gallons per tree. If you had 10 trees per acre, which is pretty thin for a forest, that would be 600,000 gallons per acre. Or 80,000 cubic feet of rain per acre. Which is about 19 inches. 19 inches will cause big flooding, forest cover or not. Thick forests did not stop the Arkansas flood disaster. And the rainfall was less. However it is a good point. The earthquake and its aftermath will make flooding even worse in Haiti, from whatever comes by. well its like i have pre altzenheimer or something. i catch all the important stuff but miss the details. You could see in the aerial tho, how the hills were just bald. i guess the earthquake made vegetation and trees just tumble down? Member Since: Julio 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

1003. SouthDadeFish 6:56 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Sorry double post. Satellite appearance is really improving. Very impressive. Member Since: Agosto 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2417

1004. Drakoen 6:57 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Bipolar models... Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1005. Tazmanian 6:57 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W TO 08N67W MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 64W-74W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 21/1438 UTC. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 64W-70W. Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1006. Drakoen 6:57 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Levi32: ECMWF 216 hours....see how it's weaker and more WNW track. These things aren't set in stone and will swing back and forth. Can't put much stock into any of these runs. The result of it being weaker is a more WNW track Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1007. blueyedhrlyridr 6:57 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
I think everyone should just take a deep breath and relax. Once the low forms then we will have a better understanding on intensity and where it may be heading. We have alot of time to watch and study this storm. Member Since: Julio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 76

1008. gordydunnot 6:57 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
You might be right freak the models don't offer much support. But I don't think most of them are even starting off with the current situation.Also I seldom see the Doc over forecast something. I know he said Wed. but he did say possible major concern. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1009. Levi32 6:58 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
The trough will not necessarily recurve 93L as much into the eastern gulf....there is lots of room for track swings here. Now that we have a disturbance to watch we can start figuring out if it will actually develop and how fast it will develop. A stronger system approaching the NW Caribbean will tend to track farther north and east. First we have to get development and without a defined surface center expect wild swings on the ECMWF and every other model. This is natural. For now we are focusing on development first, then track and intensity later. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1010. CaneWarning 6:58 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Levi32: ECMWF 216 hours....see how it's weaker and more WNW track. These things aren't set in stone and will swing back and forth. Can't put much stock into any of these runs. Weaker is good. Member Since: Abril 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

1011. FLWeatherFreak91 6:59 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Levi32: The trough will not necessarily recurve 93L as much into the eastern gulf....there is lots of room for track swings here. Now that we have a disturbance to watch we can start figuring out if it will actually develop and how fast it will develop. A stronger system approaching the NW Caribbean will tend to track farther north and east. First we have to get development and without a defined surface center expect wild swings on the ECMWF and every other model. This is natural. For now we are focusing on development first, then track and intensity. Wow. The blog sways back and forth with the models. Member Since: Diciembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

1012. ldude 6:59 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting twhcracker: well its like i have pre altzenheimer or something. i catch all the important stuff but miss the details. You could see in the aerial tho, how the hills were just bald. i guess the earthquake made vegetation and trees just tumble down? not sure, but I think the deforestation in Haiti predates the earthquake. Member Since: Diciembre 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 9

1013. Levi32 6:59 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Wow. The blog sways back and forth with the models. The blog does. I don't. Models are tools not leaders. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1014. Tazmanian 6:59 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
with low wind shear and hot sea temper i bet the mode runs will not play out the weaker mod Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1015. Hurricanes101 7:00 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
amazing the difference between the 00Z and 12Z runs Levi Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1016. ssmate 7:00 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr: I think everyone should just take a deep breath and relax. Once the low forms then we will have a better understanding on intensity and where it may be heading. We have alot of time to watch and study this storm. nofuncaster Member Since: Julio 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347

1017. CaneWarning 7:00 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Wow. The blog sways back and forth with the models. Doesn't it normally? Member Since: Abril 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

1018. FLWeatherFreak91 7:00 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting ldude: not sure, but I think the deforestation in Haiti predates the earthquake. Uhhhh the deforestation is not natural... they were all cut down. http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20080217/NEWS/802170358 Member Since: Diciembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

1020. IKE 7:01 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
ECMWF=Flip-flops! Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1021. Levi32 7:01 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: amazing the difference between the 00Z and 12Z runs Levi Yes...wild swings expected. Heck we have nothing but easterly winds running underneath 93L. Not even a hint of a surface circulation yet. It will get played around with a lot by the ECMWF. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1022. Tazmanian 7:01 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting ssmate: nofuncaster lol Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1023. Hurricanes101 7:01 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting IKE: ECMWF=Flip-flops! It has a whole closet full of flip-flops lol Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1024. SouthDadeFish 7:02 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
I just have a very hard time seeing what will slow down 93L from developing after its get a circulation going, besides land interaction. Member Since: Agosto 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2417

1026. gordydunnot 7:03 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
The outflow or divergence aloft is excellent I think when the surface easterlies slow down tonight we will see if we have a ball game. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1027. StadiumEffect 7:03 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Guys, there's no point being too taken up with the models runs just yet. Until there is a well defined center which the models can affix to, they will vary. The general consensus so far however, seems to be WNW through the Caribbean. Jamaica and Cayman Isl need to pay closest attention at this point.

1028. IKE 7:03 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
GFS may prove correct again. Time will tell. 93L needs some model support. It's biggest supporter has backed off. Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1030. Stormchaser2007 7:04 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Up to a major cane. Not that about 93L anymore. Theres a HUGE model spread. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 69.9W 15.1N 72.2W 15.9N 74.3W BAMD 13.5N 67.8W 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.2W 16.1N 74.2W BAMM 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 70.0W 15.1N 72.3W 15.8N 74.5W LBAR 13.5N 67.8W 14.5N 69.8W 15.7N 72.2W 16.6N 74.5W SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.6N 76.6W 17.8N 80.6W 19.1N 84.0W 20.3N 87.0W BAMD 16.6N 76.0W 17.3N 79.3W 18.1N 82.2W 18.9N 84.6W BAMM 16.4N 76.6W 17.3N 80.2W 18.3N 83.3W 19.2N 86.0W LBAR 17.4N 76.6W 18.3N 80.5W 20.3N 83.7W 22.4N 85.7W SHIP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS DSHP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

1031. masonsnana 7:04 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting ssmate: nofuncaster LOL Member Since: Febrero 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 513

1032. Levi32 7:04 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: Levi ! Youre going to bring the Texas and Losuianacasters. next thing we know, there are going tobe 500 trolls thinking its going there way. lol Lol. Well just so I'm clear I'm not making a track forecast yet. It would be foolish for me to do so without having a developed system with a clear center. I fully expected these swings with the ECMWF. There is no track commitment yet. We don't even have development yet. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1033. IKE 7:05 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 69.9W 15.1N 72.2W 15.9N 74.3W BAMD 13.5N 67.8W 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.2W 16.1N 74.2W BAMM 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 70.0W 15.1N 72.3W 15.8N 74.5W LBAR 13.5N 67.8W 14.5N 69.8W 15.7N 72.2W 16.6N 74.5W SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.6N 76.6W 17.8N 80.6W 19.1N 84.0W 20.3N 87.0W BAMD 16.6N 76.0W 17.3N 79.3W 18.1N 82.2W 18.9N 84.6W BAMM 16.4N 76.6W 17.3N 80.2W 18.3N 83.3W 19.2N 86.0W LBAR 17.4N 76.6W 18.3N 80.5W 20.3N 83.7W 22.4N 85.7W SHIP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS DSHP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS Well...the SHIPS went the other way. Too far out in time to know for sure. Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1034. fire635 7:05 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish: I just have a very hard time seeing what will slow down 93L from developing after its get a circulation going, besides land interaction. I agree.. and I think once it finds its LLC (IMO will happen in the next 24 hours) the computer models will all start to come on board. Member Since: Junio 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

1035. Levi32 7:06 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1036. Tazmanian 7:06 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 69.9W 15.1N 72.2W 15.9N 74.3W BAMD 13.5N 67.8W 14.4N 70.0W 15.4N 72.2W 16.1N 74.2W BAMM 13.5N 67.8W 14.2N 70.0W 15.1N 72.3W 15.8N 74.5W LBAR 13.5N 67.8W 14.5N 69.8W 15.7N 72.2W 16.6N 74.5W SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.6N 76.6W 17.8N 80.6W 19.1N 84.0W 20.3N 87.0W BAMD 16.6N 76.0W 17.3N 79.3W 18.1N 82.2W 18.9N 84.6W BAMM 16.4N 76.6W 17.3N 80.2W 18.3N 83.3W 19.2N 86.0W LBAR 17.4N 76.6W 18.3N 80.5W 20.3N 83.7W 22.4N 85.7W SHIP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS DSHP 61KTS 76KTS 89KTS 100KTS OMG Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1037. 47n91w 7:06 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
From Wiki: Deforestation in Haiti is a severe environmental problem. In 1923, over 60% of Haiti's land was forested; by 2006, less than 2% was. Quoting ldude: not sure, but I think the deforestation in Haiti predates the earthquake. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 230

1041. stillwaiting 7:06 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
looks like floridas west coast might get some severe wx now thru around 11pm!!!! Member Since: Octubre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1042. CaneWarning 7:06 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting IKE: GFS may prove correct again. Time will tell. 93L needs some model support. It's biggest supporter has backed off. Yeah, and we are only about a week out from potential landfall. Member Since: Abril 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

1043. cyclonekid 7:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 135N, 678W, 25, 1010, DB Where do you get that info from? Member Since: Julio 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

1044. FLWeatherFreak91 7:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting stillwaiting: looks like floridas west coast might get some severe wx now thru around 11pm!!!! Very pleasant right now. A thunderstorm nearby dropped my temp to 76 w.o raining. Member Since: Diciembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

1045. Drakoen 7:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Wow 100 knots on the SHIPS... lol Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1046. IKE 7:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: Its Ships model... i mean this thing predicts an invest to go to a hurricane. even before we have a td. its not a reliable model. Exactly. It did the same thing on 92L...showing it near 90 knots. Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1047. smarterthanyou 7:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
93L is a serious threat to the Gulf of Mexico

1048. blueyedhrlyridr 7:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Looks like it doesnt make TS status until around the Yukatan area or Southeast Gulf. If the high stays strong this very well head toward the Texas coast. Texas doesnt need another storm this quik after Ike. But like I said once we have a surface low to go by were all just guessing. Member Since: Julio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 76

1049. SouthDadeFish 7:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: Are you hinting rapid intesification? I'm not saying anything yet as it is has no circulation. But if it were to acquire one, the GFS shear forecasts leave that scenario possible. But then again it could never acquire one. It definitely deserves watching. Member Since: Agosto 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2417

1050. SouthDadeFish 7:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
I need to fix my internet. Member Since: Agosto 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2417

1051. EarthMuffin 7:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Hi everyone - I've come back for another hurricane season. Is there any consensus on what's likely to happen with 93L and when?

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