Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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501. Drakoen 4:59 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Ascat shows a sharp tropical wave but no closed low. Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

502. Hurricanes101 4:59 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting RJT185: Oy. This system couldn't complete a cart-wheel despite all of the closet wish-caster in the planet. How can people be so hyped up when we're looking at computer models which don't have an LLC to lock onto? Yes this while setting is RIPE for a major or at least considerable storm to brew ... but there's a possibility the closed low might never materialize. Until the LLC forms and persists ... this is a wait & see system. agreed, so many get way too ahead of themselves, I guess it is human nature to do that though Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

503. PanhandleChuck 4:59 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting gator23: Gets what Scott? We have nothing to get right now. No LLC Did you not read the Doc's article above? Nothing in it's way to prevent it from developing. "New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern" Member Since: Mayo 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

505. TampaSpin 5:01 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting 69Viking: Tampa is always pointing the threats our way! One of these days it's going to backfire and one of our storms as he likes to call them is going to make a right turn and enter Tampa Bay, they been lucky for a long time! Back at you Tampa LOL! NOW THAT AIN'T even right....YOU know you all have the best of luck......you keep your luck. I really don't wanna invade what you all have going up there.....LOL Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

506. Stormchaser2007 5:01 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: Cool map! Where did you find that one? Link Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15242

507. gator23 5:01 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck: Did you not read the Doc's article above? Nothing in it's way to prevent it from developing. "New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern" right, it is. But we are freaking out over potential forecast tracks of something has has no LLC to track from. Be concerned, be alert, be on the look out. But until a LLC forms be not forecasting potential landfalls. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

508. tropicfreak 5:01 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck: Did you not read the Doc's article above? Nothing in it's way to prevent it from developing. "New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern" yes don't jump to conclusions until you have read the blog. Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6564

509. weathersp 5:02 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Last Night's 0z Euro... Member Since: Enero 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

510. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:02 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
INV/93/L MARK 13.3N/67.3W Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

511. twhcracker 5:02 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: agreed, so many get way too ahead of themselves, I guess it is human nature to do that though yes human nature, especially since we are all poised for a nightmare season that is not yet begun but due any minute... Member Since: Julio 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

513. gator23 5:02 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting scott39: See the word "IF"? touche' scott. touche' Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

514. tropicfreak 5:03 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting gator23: right, it is. But we are freaking out over potential forecast tracks of something has has no LLC to track from. Be concerned, be alert, be on the look out. But until a LLC forms be not forecasting potential landfalls. BUT is the LLC developing? It certainly is. Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6564

515. leelee75k 5:03 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages. Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of? thanks Member Since: Septiembre 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 541

516. scott39 5:03 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting gator23: right, it is. But we are freaking out over potential forecast tracks of something has has no LLC to track from. Be concerned, be alert, be on the look out. But until a LLC forms be not forecasting potential landfalls. My statement that you commented on was not "freaking out", it was just a tought. Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

517. gator23 5:03 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: yes don't jump to conclusions until you have read the blog. I have read it. I am trying to prevent some people in here from jumping to conculsions about landfall. NO LLC Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

518. nrtiwlnvragn 5:03 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Yesterdays ECMWF Ensemble had a wide variety of tracks in the GOM. Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8915

519. fire635 5:04 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Im so surprised that so many people are surprised by the "hyping" of this system already. Its the first real possibility of the season... as each model comes in and each model shows potential development its only going to get more intense around here. I have to say, I understand how things change and nothing is certain, but I definitely have both eyes on this system as well. This could bode to be very detrimental to the gulf coast. Especially with the oil situation Member Since: Junio 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

520. Patrap 5:05 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting leelee75k: a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages. Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of? thanks A good siphon for gas. A good Radio with HAM Radio reception. Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

522. reedzone 5:05 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Ascat shows a sharp tropical wave but no closed low. Conditions over and beyond the wave just got favorable this morning, which is why this was tagged. I'm more incline to believe a LLC will form tomorrow rather then today. Member Since: Julio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

524. Drakoen 5:05 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Yesterdays ECMWF Ensemble had a wide variety of tracks in the GOM. Oh you have access... Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

525. gator23 5:06 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting scott39: My statement that you commented on was not "freaking out", it was just a tought. hey scott, I sent you mail. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

526. Levi32 5:06 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Yesterdays ECMWF Ensemble had a wide variety of tracks in the GOM. The general direction of those ensemble members makes more sense than the exaggerated recurve into Mobile that the operational run had last night. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439

527. TampaTom 5:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
It's funny... sometime earlier this month, I think Storm W said that we'd be in the clear until June 25... Man, Storm... can you buy my next lottery ticket for me? Keep your eyes on the storm and dust off your survival plan... Member Since: Junio 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1048

529. boyzNme 5:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting leelee75k: a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages. Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of? thanks clothes pins!! There is just no limit to the uses for these nifty little devices. Hold a tarp together, hang up those wet clothes you cant dry, hang up the camping dishes to dry, basically anything you can or need to hold closed or hang up!! We are never without them. Member Since: Agosto 29, 2008 Posts: 5 Comments: 58

530. TampaSpin 5:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting gator23: I have read it. I am trying to prevent some people in here from jumping to conculsions about landfall. NO LLC Are you the NEW JFV.....LoL....just kidding! Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

531. CybrTeddy 5:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: Ascat shows a sharp tropical wave but no closed low. That's a step towards it, likely that this might develop a close surface circulation in about 24-36 hours from now. Its a wait and see situation, personally I believe the NHC will hold 93L either at 20% or 30% yellow. Member Since: Julio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20178

533. Stormchaser2007 5:07 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15242

534. scott39 5:08 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting gator23: hey scott, I sent you mail. Thank you Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

535. leelee75k 5:09 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Thanks patrap, that's exactly the type of things I'm looking for, didn't think of either one of those to have. anyone else? Member Since: Septiembre 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 541

536. xcool 5:09 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
TampaSpin LOL Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

537. Hurricanes101 5:09 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
You guys want to know where 93L is going? Here is a map I created yesterday for you guys rolls eyes Member Since:* Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

538. 1900hurricane 5:09 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Link Thanks! Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10321

539. TampaSpin 5:10 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting leelee75k: a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages. Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of? thanks Propane gas tanks for your Grill or briquetts which ever you use.....i have 3 full tanks during the season i keep. Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

540. zoomiami 5:10 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting leelee75k: a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages. Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of? thanks Frozen jugs of water - they more you can make the better - I found that even a regular water bottle of ice was great for keeping things cool - and then to drink. If you don't currently have one - a line to hang wet things on - haven't gone through a storm yet that something didn't get soaked. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4064

541. gremlingator 5:11 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
i am a long time lurker -since 2003 i just looked at the gfs 850 voricty model what is every ones take on that ??

543. Drakoen 5:11 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Levi32: The general direction of those ensemble members makes more sense than the exaggerated recurve into Mobile that the operational run had last night. I don't think so considering this big trough shown on both the ECMWF and the GFS Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

544. BDAwx 5:11 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting weathersp: Last Night's 0z Euro... that is so cool!!! :D Member Since: Agosto 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 509

545. gator23 5:11 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting scott39: Thank you no worries, we have both been on here a long time without incident. I respet your opinions and I would not want any bad blood between us because of a misunderstanding. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

546. FLWeatherFreak91 5:11 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: You guys want to know where 93L is going? Here is a map I created yesterday for you guys rolls eyes Haha! My beach house in La Romana, DR is safe! Thank you. Member Since:* Diciembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

547. leelee75k 5:12 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
thanks boyznme! Another great suggestion and one I didn't think of. Member Since: Septiembre 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 541

548. PanhandleChuck 5:12 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting gator23: I have read it. I am trying to prevent some people in here from jumping to conculsions about landfall. NO LLC Not jumping to conclusions... This system has the potential to become huge. Everybody needs to monitor it over the next few days to see what comes of it IF anything Member Since: Mayo 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

549. boyzNme 5:12 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting leelee75k: Thanks patrap, that's exactly the type of things I'm looking for, didn't think of either one of those to have. anyone else? see #529, clothes pins Member Since: Agosto 29, 2008 Posts: 5 Comments: 58

550. miamiamiga 5:12 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting leelee75k: a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages. Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of? thanks Do you own any camping supplies? A propane camp stove is real handy. Ours got us through Katrina and Wilma in Miami (total of 3 weeks no electricity between the two storms). Stock up on propane canisters for it. Also, make sure you have simple things handy like a GOOD manual can opener, large soup pot (in case you have a boil water mandate), and if you have a generator, make sure you have some box fans handy that you can use off the generator to help make up for lack of air conditioning. I am sure I will think of more things that came in handy. If I do I will list them later... Member Since: Mayo 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 115

551. Levi32 5:13 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I don't think so considering this big trough shown on both the ECMWF and the GFS Obviously the trough wasn't near that strong just one run before. There is some iffyness on the model as to how weak the ridge will be. Besides, the ECMWF having all its ensemble members to the west of the operational says something. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439

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