New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT en Junio 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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3428. xcool
MRS ROB LOOK AT Tropical Atlantic - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting JVGazeley:
btwntx08: If I'm reading it correctly, it goes over the Yucatan, swallows up the wave behind it in the Gulf then hits TX somewhere around Corpus Christi?

Link

yep pretty close
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JVGazeley:
btwntx08: If I'm reading it correctly, it goes over the Yucatan, swallows up the wave behind it in the Gulf then hits TX somewhere around Corpus Christi?

Link
Unusual , just like the CMC having the same two areas around the Fla/Al coast at almost the same time. Models are almost worthless at this point
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3425. leo305
its ganna go boom, little dot of very cold cloud top has popped up east of the "center"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Or instead of argueing about the shear on maps... you can look at REAL Observations..

May I present to you... the Curacao RAOB!



And the 850-250mb vertical shear is... 15 kts!
Member Since: Enero 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
3423. xcool
93L ROLL NOW. MEANING GOOD convection
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3422. EricSFL
It is an opinion, but I'm not buying the model tracks that take the system to the western Gulf. June climatology would not favor such westward track.
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Quoting lparky:
This guy is good... he is a local houston met that won the emmy for his ike coverage.

Here is his outlook on the current invests:

Link


tim heller is real good
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3420. xcool


Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

That shear is in the process of decreasing:


Ohh, ok thanks
Member Since: Julio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
btwntx08: If I'm reading it correctly, it goes over the Yucatan, swallows up the wave behind it in the Gulf then hits TX somewhere around Corpus Christi?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is 5-10 knots over 93L, and should stay that way for the next few days to allow further development. What I am saying is that what was 20 knots of shear near the Yucatan is now 20-30 knots. Wasn't it supposed to weaken, not strengthen?
Member Since: Julio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
Quoting reedzone:


They said wind shear was supposed to weaken to the west, but looking at the last few frames, it looks like shear has increased.

That shear is in the process of decreasing:
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Link
decrasing according to this lol
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3414. xcool
YEP ROB
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3413. lparky
This guy is good... he is a local houston met that won the emmy for his ike coverage.

Here is his outlook on the current invests:

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3412. xcool
I SEE NOO WIND SHEAR
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:


ROB

ok thx looks like mid or upper tx coast to me on there lol
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah you're talking about this:



The TUTT flow is still going by to the north....but the system is not getting sheared. I see no clouds or thunderstorms getting blown away to the east of 93L's center. They are nearly perfectly still, as a matter of fact. The strong upper winds to the west which look like they are slamming into 93L are in fact going around it to the north...which is shown on CIMSS imagery.


They said wind shear was supposed to weaken to the west, but looking at the last few frames, it looks like shear has increased.
Member Since: Julio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
Quoting xcool:


OMY


That's special.
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I'm done for the nite......good nite all!
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
3407. xcool


ROB
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 00Z NGP TX ?

yes where on the coast lower,mid,or upper tx coast?
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3405. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:


Levi i just zoomed in and i gotta disagree with you....it is getting hit by around 20kts of sheer.....


Yeah you're talking about this:



The TUTT flow is still going by to the north....but the system is not getting sheared. I see no clouds or thunderstorms getting blown away to the east of 93L's center. They are nearly perfectly still, as a matter of fact. The strong upper winds to the west which look like they are slamming into 93L are in fact going around it to the north...which is shown on CIMSS imagery.
Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
According to this only about 15 knots:
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CMC .... oh poor CMC .... some things never change
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3402. xcool
HWF feedback issues
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3401. xcool
btwntx08 00Z NGP TX ?
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
repost:
shear map looks 5-10 kt to me but maybe some near 20 on the northern tier of the system
Link
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3399. EricSFL
At the moment, the wave behind 93L has better 850 vort. than 93L.
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Quoting xcool:
btwntx08:?

Quoting xcool:
OOZ NGP 93L IN TX
that lol
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Quoting Levi32:


It's not getting sheared. Shear is around it not over it.


Levi i just zoomed in and i gotta disagree with you....it is getting hit by around 20kts of sheer.....
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
3396. xcool
F4PHANTOM NOT92L .NEW WAVE
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Levi32:


It's not 92L. It's the wave behind 93L currently approaching the windwards.
Sure has the sec. wave at a fast speed. It actually gets to the coast first. Strange.
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3394. xcool
..SPECIAL FEATURES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 21N69W ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ALONG 15N71W TO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W MOVING WNW 15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TO 20N67W AND WITHIN 125/150 NM OF LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3393. xcool
btwntx08:?
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting btwntx08:
it wont let me see it for some reason...where in tx does it go

talkin about nogaps where in tx does it go my comp wont let me see it
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Quoting Levi32:
Here comes the 0z GFDL forecasting a Cat 3 in the Gulf of Mexico.

Watch everyone scream "It's alive!" now.

It was always alive....it never died today.


It's getting close to decision time at the DWH site. I read recently that time to get things shut down (as much as that can be accomplished) and vessels out of the way was about 110 hours. The 12Z model runs tomorrow are going to be important ... hope 93L has an identifiable center, enough circ and a good read on forward speed to get them initialized properly. If they have to move off the DWH site, expect a 10-day setback in relief well operations. They are "ahead of schedule" and are projecting the kill in the second week of August (not sure how they are ahead of schedule because earlier projections were for late July/early August).

Would sure be nice if this one stayed weak and headed west. Those drillers need to stay on task.
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3390. Levi32
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Possibly trying to pick up the remains of 92l?


It's not 92L. It's the wave behind 93L currently approaching the windwards.
Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
The bizarre new CMC run; where does that second system come from? Is that the wave behind being pulled past 93L to the north?
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3388. xcool
EricSFL I STAY FOR DRIY BI--- IN 2005 LOL LOL
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Levi32:
0z CMC shows development of 93L but is just plain weird....showing a 2nd system that tries to combine with it in the gulf.
Possibly trying to pick up the remains of 92l?
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3386. EricSFL
If a hurricane cat 3 or greater were to threatten the Miami metro area, I would certainly not stay here. House roofs here in SFL are not built to withstand such windspeeds...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Dang.......that better not happen...gotta say tho....the GFDL has always had a decent history of being fairly close! I sure hope its wrong this time.


GFDL is known to have a poleward bias.
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3384. xcool
I'M AT HIGH -RISK AREA FOR LANDFALL 2010 HURRICANESEASON.
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
it wont let me see it for some reason...where in tx does it go
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Quoting Levi32:
Here comes the 0z GFDL forecasting a Cat 3 in the Gulf of Mexico.

Watch everyone scream "It's alive!" now.

It was always alive....it never died today.
Model has it making a N turn towards Mobile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3381. xcool
EricSFL SEE MY GIRL FRIEND & SON LEAVE NOT ME .
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3380. xcool
WT-- 0K WT--
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3379. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:
SLIDELL LA .RIGHT BY mississippi gulf coast


If a hurricane were to threaten your area xcool, I suggest you follow the evacuation orders as necessary, especially for the safety of your family.
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Here's a map I made earlier explaining the conditions around 93L and it's short term movement, in my opinion of course..

Photobucket
Member Since: Julio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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