Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Totaly agree with you on this one. I noticed that right away. That could be the one really to watch. Def farther north than all the previous waves.
That's normal for waves that are exiting the African Coast.
Ok, I couldn't stay quiet any longer! PERFECT!!
I do think we will get a storm before that though
As I pointed out earlier, it is common for waves to lose convection when they emerge - they are transitioning from energetics which sustain convection over land to energetics that sustain convection over the sea. The waning or waxing of convection has little to do with the axis.
This should be the mandatory 1st post in every new blog.
Ya, i would say most likely! MOre the local breed type my thinking! ie. GOM, W. Caribbean,or Bahammas
No you actually agree with me then lol
I said I feel we will see our first named storm before that time in July when the MJO comes back to an upward motion
The time stamp is incorrect, only realized it two years later, lol.
This is my brother Darryl, and this is my other brother Darryl.
No rain here yet in Gautier...looks like most of the convection hanging off shore.
Welcome back. And I am genuinely regretful for having added something that happened in the blog to a partial report on what you actually did to surmise something else entirely different.
Adding the flow rate increase from cutting the riser on the BlowoutPreventer, then subtracting the 10,000barrels per day that BP has announced is being recovered: some amount between the 3400barrels per day minimum up to the 10,400barrels per day average is still spilling into the Gulf...
...and I refuse to think about pessimistic projections.
BritishPetroleum's ChiefExecutiveOfficer claims that they "are recovering most of the crude oil" that is flowing out of the well. However, BP has not announced that they actually know the flow rate -- as opposed to their previous official "it's not important enough to bother finding out" -- or what that flow rate is.
And until they do make such knowledge public, I can only wonder how their CEO knows that more than half of the crude oil is being recovered, can only assume that he is engaging in wishful thinking.
"
I don't think we will get a storm before that though"
Does northern GOM blob have any chance?
I think Pat has a good link to digital portable TV's.
Im so jealous..
I want pool.
And beverage as well.
We wont know anything until they shut the valves. Then we might be able to visually see the leak stop. I say if it take about 90% of the leak away, theyneed to stop trying other things and focus all resources on cleanup and relief well.
2010 Hurricane Preparation
I have already purchased one. You can get them relatively inexpensive, around $100, at Target, Walmart etc. I did some research and the Haier was the best for the money at the time. It works pretty well in my local area.
For the NOAA weather radios I like ones with SAME technology.
ThaNK YOU.....its ok! If people ask for help and i can help with info....i would do it again and again....i will probably get another Bann.
I posted this late last night and reposted this again this morning.
2370. TampaSpin 8:44 PM EDT on June 05, 2010
You all gotta love BP and our Governments math. The claim was when they cut the Riser off there would be about a 20% gain in oil coming out........So that would be 120%......if you now assume they are capturing 30% of what is coming out as they say that would then mean that 92.30% is stil coming out from the the extra 20% they increased it by from when the Riser was cut....they are collecting 8% of 18,000 barrels or 16,560 barrels is still coming out in 24hours.....simple math.....its not really 30% as they say from what it was days ago.
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