Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Pretty much if it had changed :) and or thoughts on it or chances? I just got back to the models and data.... chewing it now
Sigh...
What island do you live on Cane?
Davis Islands - downtown Tampa, it's completely man made.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis_Islands,_Tampa,_Florida
0-0-0 & oil still flowing 6-4-10.
Yeah, I'll have to search those when I get a chance. I had a name so obscure that I couldn't remember it!
I know it quite well. My mother's family moved to the Tampa area in 1923. You are right in the middle of things. eh?
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.architecture2030.org/images/current/sealevel/DavisIs landsFL.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.architecture2030.org/current_situation/research/sea_level/davis_isl ands_fl.html&h=296&w=550&sz=190&tbnid=CjlPzAfEMkhxeM:&tbnh=72&tbnw=133&prev=/images%3Fq%3DDavis%2BIs lands&hl=en&usg=__gI1fKCpsVvcMHCyhNL8wunS-2BA=&sa=X&ei=dLYJTMa7CY-_lAeoob28Bg&ved=0CDcQ9QEwBg
Yep, that was me. I actually had an earlier name than that though but forgot it after Katrina since I didn't come back to the blog after that for a while.
HouseofGryffindor?
That's me.
WoW! Those posts bring back a lot of memories. I didn't post, just lurked. It's so heartbreaking to think back to those days when you could see what was going to happen and couldn't stop it!!! I still don't post only the odd comment and stay off the blog totally when it's busy. Where's StormJunkie these days?
StormJunkie is around. He was in last night.
Updated every three hours.
These MPEG movies show weather systems over a rotating globe. They are created by combining data from 5 geostationary orbiting satellites (GOES-East, GOES-West, Meteosat at 0, Meteosat at 63E, and MTSAT), polar orbiting satellites and a topographic map of the Earth. Get more information about playing MPEG movies.
Wow, check the spin over LA. GOMLoop
The whole loop makes me dizzy!
WOW!! And that right there is why I have to evacuate for a hurricane too. I got rid of 13 of those, but neighbors still have some that could hit my house.
but for us down here I say WE NEED RAIN WE NEED RAIN WE NEED RAIN
Cool! I still use his site to look up stuff.
I remember the early days of JFV. Wasn't his girlfriend pregnant back then. Scary thought. . . .now there are two of them! LOL
There is quite a bit of 700mb vorticity though
Shear will be dropping soon in the GOM, though.
Check out the vorticity over LA on the shear map. A lotta torque but not much convection.
REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
822 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010
.UPDATE...WILL ALLOW THE SCEC TO EXPIRE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER
THE EASTERN WATERS AS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT MSAS ANALYSIS AS WELL
AS THE UPDATED GFS WINDS. ONLY A TWEAK LOWERING OF POPS FOR SE TX,
SW LA, AND W CEN LA AS THE EVENING LCH RAOB SOUNDING HAS A DRIER
PW OF 1.9 INCHES THAN THE FCSTD 2.1. RADAR SHOWING GOOD SPACING
NOW ON THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY A TWEAK UP A
DEGREE ON TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW TO MID
70S DEW POINTS, HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. A SIMILAR DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RUC AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW THE STACKED LOW
FILLING AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD AROUND LAKE CHARLES. RADAR LOOP OUT
OF POE SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER BETWEEN OAKDALE AND
DERIDDER. GFS TEMP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNEXPECTED WARM CORE TO THIS
INLAND SYSTEM. BANDS MOVING ONSHORE WERE SPINNING UP SHORT LIVED TROPICAL
FUNNELS WHICH HAVE BEEN REPORTED SOUTH OF I-10 THIS EVENING
INCLUDING AT THIS OFFICE. UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY OUT.
I think we may be in trouble when these things actually get over water.
Yes and I can't stress enough the fact that just because we don't have storm yet that it means the season is a bust. Everyone needs to stay prepared!
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