Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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you also asked since 1900
and 2005 also had 6 landfalling Hurricanes
Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Beta
We sure don't need another season like that. All 7 landfalling in the GOM.
I dont know that its so ridiculous ...
Given estimates of oil reservoir size (given by BP so take with a whole box of salt) and the estimated leak rates, atleast 10 years + doesnt seem too ridiculous
1985 had 6 landfalls 2005 had 5 landfalls.
Later all.
Oh including non-US landfalls? Nvm then.
It had 6
So did 2008
Dolly, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Omar and Paloma
worst case scenario is august relief well..we HAVE to believe that
yea he meant anywhere
Then it's 5 for 2005 and 6 for 1985.
Alright I'm out.
Sure do, I was standing the wrong way round when I wrote that :-)
Well see now you completely changed the question after the fact lol
ok so 1985 it is
Right but his question said since 1900, so you obviously cant use 1886 as an answer
Go for it
and 2005 also had 6 landfalling Hurricanes
Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Beta
Hurricane Cindy in Early July 2005 was upgraded to Cat-1 in the January Post Season analysis.
Hurricane_Cindy
but if it is US landfalls, 2005 had 5 while 1985 had 6
The storm surge of a hurricane is very destructive. About how much does a cubic foot of sea water weigh in pounds?
A. 8
B. 36
C. 64
D. 11.9084781
Not really :-)
absolutely ...
On the other hand, there are a number of variations of the BOP which are not much more than large valves which MAY be a viable option if the cut/cao does not work more efficiently than it is now. BP has stated that it does not want to put a Bop on a Bop though that may change. remember this though, they have not yet closed the four vents on the top hat yet, and we may discover that it works quite well when they do. If you recall, the suction tube they were using before would only transfer about 1000 bpd before they ramped it up to 5k bpd, and we hope the same premise applies here.
C 64
Too bad the real answer will be 2010...
You just won this delicious looking cheesecake.
Can't be...
Ate that an hour ago!
Anyone want another question?
No. No more trivia, please.
Hang on I will set up a trivia blog so we have something to do during the slow times of the season
come over to my blog then
They make spherical BOP valves that are about the size of the top hat and bolt on to the riser flange. Just one valve, not an entire BOP.
I agree, an entire BOP like what is there now placed on top would be a bad idea.
no there would be 12, 1 for each month lol
It shouldnt. People have a big misconception about nuclear weapons. We have the ability to make them small enough to be around the yeild of a modern High-yield conventional bomb. The difference and importance is that the nuclear option is a much smaller device and thus will be better suited against the pressure as well as being able to pinpoint vast amounts of heat and pressure, and also that there is no necessary combustion, the nuclear reaction is self sustaining until fuel is exhausted.
I am just a realist -- And it was said in jest.
Hopefully, 2010 does not end up making that list.
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