Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Shows what I know about Tech-mology. Forgive my Ali G phraseology!
mm I see.. but don't forget storms can also form during downward motions.
Question, what is the inside diameter of the pipe going to the surface? Does your calculation assume it is the same as the BOP pipe? TIA
Two words: proxy server.
Likely to end up with 18-19, 23-27 is way to extreme.
2005 had 2 in June.
I've seen comparison after comparison on here comparing 2010 to 2005. In 2005 the first storm was June 8th. Ain't happening that soon this year.
Does it mean anything? No. But it's a fact.
Enforcement only really happens when the infraction is brought to the attention of the admins...
That's still pretty high
You're probably close.
I don't think we'll see 20 or more either.
It's bullies, not bullys! Get it right!
Sure, but I'm not forecasting 28 like 2005. The point is June is not a good indicator of the rest of the season. What does matter though is how the precipitation and MSLP anomalies start shaping up this month. If the Sahel gets wet (already is) and the Caribbean gets wet with low pressures in the SW Atlantic, then it's a sure sign of things to come in the following months.
Agree.......Not sure when we will get Alex but the average start date for the season is around mid-July. But, with all of the energy and precipitation out there, and we have seen this year after year, once it starts, it's like a switch is thrown (jet stream gets out of the way in the Gulf and "trio" of the subtropical ridge/TUTT/sub-equatorial ridge where all the action is rises in place). Once the first one forms, then is will probably be a pretty endless stream with "clusters" of storms in groups through the season based upon favorable MJO factors and the like........August through October, when heating in the tropics is at it's maximum every year, will see the bulk of the storms with a few stragglers, perhaps, in June/July and October/Nomvember depending on overall conditions.
No Development Expected Over the Next Several Days
Jun 4, 2010 11:51 AM
Tropical waves are located along 25 west, along 40 west, along 55 west and near 72 west. These tropical waves are moving westward at an average speed of 4-5 degrees longitude per day. Most of the waves remain south of 12 north. The only tropical wave of interest is the one along 25 west. This tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa late Tuesday and was exhibiting clouds and a few thunderstorms. Upper-level wind flow over this system appears to be favorable for further thunderstorm development. We see no organized lower-level feature at this point. Long-range computer forecasts show little support for development. However, we will still keep a close eye on the system. Otherwise, we see no signs of tropical development through at least Saturday.
By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologists Bob Smerbeck and Brian Wimer
Link
never know...remember Dennis? That was late June/early July....nasty sucker...
Also interesting thought: What if there was internet and this blog was up in 1984? I think they had 4 storms that year... I can't imagine the insanity that would ensue with a season that lasted basically for a month.
You're a big tough guy behind that keyboard, aren't you? Hasn't Mommy called you for PB&J's yet?
1968 holds the record with 3 storms in June; it ended with only 8 storms
Link
Cool...
Oh yeah, forgot about that one. I was mostly pointing out even hyperactive seasons don't do much in June.
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