CSU predicts highly active hurricane season; Cyclone Phet approaching Oman
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 185% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step up from their April forecast, which called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (51% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (50% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 65% (42% is average.) This is the most aggressive early June forecast ever issued by the CSU group; the previous most aggressive such forecasts were for the 2006 and 2007 seasons, when the CSU team predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Both of these forecasts did poorly, particularly the 2006 forecast, as only 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes were observed.
The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:
1) Weak La Niña conditions should develop by the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). The expected trend towards weak La Niña conditions should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.
2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.
3) A weaker-than-normal Azores High prevailed during April-May. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.
4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.
Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: weak El Niño to neutral conditions, well above-average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1969, the 3rd worst hurricane season of all time, featuring Category 5 Hurricane Camille which hit Mississippi; 1966, a relatively average year that featured Category 4 Inez that killed 1,000 people in Haiti; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.
How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes are what do 80 - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses the same formula as the past two years, which did quite well predicting the 2008 hurricane season (prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes; observed: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes) and 2009 hurricane season (prediction: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes; observed: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes.) An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.44 to 0.58 for their June forecasts, which is respectable.
Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.
NOAA's 2010 hurricane season forecast
NOAA issued their forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season last week. As I discussed in my post on their forecast, NOAA is calling for very active and possibly hyperactive season. They give an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA predicts a 70% chance that there will be 14 - 23 named storms, 8 - 14 hurricanes, and 3 - 7 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the 155% - 270% of normal range. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 210% of normal. A season with an ACE index over 175% is considered "hyperactive."
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
Record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds yesterday, and has weakened slightly to 135 mph winds this morning. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone.
Phet is over very warm waters of 30 - 31°C, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. However, the storm is wrapping in dry air from the Arabian Peninsula, which has caused weakening. Visible satellite imagery from this morning (Figure 2) shows that the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of Phet have been eroded away by dry air. Phet is a small storm, and could fall apart fairly quickly if dry air can penetrate into its core. This should happen later today, since wind shear is on the increase, and the shearing winds should be able to disrupt the circulation enough that dry air can force its way into Phet's eyewall. Phet is fairly small, will miss the most heavily populated areas of Oman, and will likely undergo significant weakening before landfall, so the storm is unlikely to cause the kind of catastrophic flooding that Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007 brought to Oman. Gonu killed 50 people and did $4.2 billion in damage. Phet's heaviest rains will be confined to a relatively sparsely populated region of Oman's coast. Rainfall amounts in excess of 6 inches in 18 hours (Figure 3) can be expected along Oman's coast today, which will likely cause extreme flooding.
After Phet's encounter with Oman, the storm will probably be at tropical storm strength when it makes its second landfall in Pakistan. Heavy rains from Phet will be the major danger for Pakistan, and serious flooding can be expected over southern Pakistan.
Figure 3. Forecast rain amounts for the 18-hour period ending at 2am EDT June 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Oil spill update
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 - 1 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday and Monday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll be back Friday with an analysis of the new TSR hurricane forecast and a new forecast by a promising Florida State University model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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No, you cannot compare the loss of unintelligent animals to the deaths of 2995 human beings.
This is my thinking also, isnt going to happin right away. fingers crossed many times!!!!
I was thinking that. Its going to take a while before the "flow" up the pipe is moving along. There is a mile of static fluids in the pipe.
And 343 Firefighters....my Father has been on the job for 28 years their instinct is to go! Ask questions and have fears later...may they all rest in peace
Yes but the flow is doubled, im sure there is some going up the pipe but at most half the oil is. And if the flow is doubled, we are no better than when we started.
The oil was being pump out of the earth anyway, and it didn't cause an earthquake, so I doubt it would in this case. But, if one happens, near by, I'm blaming BP, just because.
Anderson Cooper is hammering BP as well.
he's been doing that from the gitgo....
Ya gotta remove the cork. Oh, you know that :)
It played everywhere I think.
okay:
Nothing going on for the foreseeable future.
Now, back to what matters, the oil.
Well thats because the flow before the cap was all nice and contained in one stream. There is no more oil now than before. It looks a whole lot worse though.
He said BP should have a spokesman explaining what is going on, like NASA does with the space shuttle flights. I agree.
BP is not going to survive this.
Beyond the Pale
You've all probably seen this.
I've been watching tapes of the women's semi-finals at the French Open after working all day...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST NEAR 30N95W. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE SUPPORTING A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE GULF...NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 90W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF MISISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA. AS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MODELS INDICATED THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 25N...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW 5 KT TO 10 KT.
Nothing of note, the oil spill is active and more important imo right now.
Quoting Nolehead:
1666. IKE 2:03 AM GMT on June 04, 2010
Anderson Cooper is hammering BP as well.
he's been doing that from the gitgo....
well they do deserve it for cutting courners
oh absolutly and then some!!!!!
President Obama returns to Louisiana on Friday to see Gulf oil spill work
By Bruce Alpert, Times-Picayune
June 03, 2010, 7:45PM
Facing growing criticism that he has not shown enough urgency or passion about the 46-day-old oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, President Barack Obama will on Friday make his third visit to Louisiana since the disaster began, and administration officials said he is likely to be back.
The visit, his second in a week, comes as the president and members of his administration are turning up the rhetorical heat on BP, the operator of the damaged deepwater rig that is spewing millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf.
"I would love to just spend a lot of my time venting and yelling at people, but that's not the job I was hired to do," Obama said on CNN's Larry King show Thursday night. "My job is to solve this problem and ultimately this isn't about me and how angry I am. Ultimately this is about the people down in the Gulf who are being impacted and what am I doing to make sure that they're able to salvage their way of life."
But just because the public hasn't seen his anger, Obama said, doesn't mean he doesn't feel outrage.
"You know, I am furious at this entire situation because this is an example where somebody didn't think through the consequences of their actions," Obama told King. "It's imperiling not just a handful of people. This is imperiling an entire way of life and an entire region for potentially years."
The criticism of the president has come from supporters and opponents alike.
On Sunday, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who backed Obama's presidential campaign, said the president should have been more assertive during in the first days after the accident.
Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson, said,"We are tired of them talking like John Wayne and acting like Pee-Wee Herman."
Robert Gibbs, Obama's spokesman, said he expects that the president will meet with state and local officials, residents affected by the spill and get updates from Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, who is directing the administration's response to the spill.
Gibbs said the president considered his trip to Louisiana last week successful because he was able to hear directly from officials about what they needed to deal with the spill.
"The president believed it was a productive atmosphere in ensuring that everybody's causes and concerns were heard, and ultimately met," Gibbs said.
Gibbs was asked about the other crises facing the president, including the harsh international reaction to Israel's flotilla raid, the controversy about the White House trying to induce two Democrats to drop primary races with the possibility of federal jobs, the ongoing problems with North Korea and Iran and the continuing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"No White House, at any time, has the luxury of picking the events that it deals with, both on a domestic and an international ... and on the international scene," Gibbs said. "That's part of the job."
BP had better not survive this. Let them spend every last penny cleaning up our waters and shores. Then hold the executives responsible. Seize their assets and throw them in jail.
The loss of potentially 100 times the amount of fatalities in 911, is immoral, and I consider it worse.. I am open minded though.. an animal to me is very precious, a human being to me is very precious.. but in reality we are all animals, just we happen to be the smartest of them all.
exactly. Every drop out of the gulf that would have been there is an improvement. Looks bad, but theres nothing that proves it is a complete failure yet.
Not sure that the flow has doubled. 25% more was expected. Double that for error (or PR), and lets say 50% more.
Still a crazy amount....
Agreed.
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