CSU predicts highly active hurricane season; Cyclone Phet approaching Oman
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 185% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step up from their April forecast, which called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (51% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (50% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 65% (42% is average.) This is the most aggressive early June forecast ever issued by the CSU group; the previous most aggressive such forecasts were for the 2006 and 2007 seasons, when the CSU team predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Both of these forecasts did poorly, particularly the 2006 forecast, as only 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes were observed.
The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:
1) Weak La Niña conditions should develop by the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). The expected trend towards weak La Niña conditions should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.
2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.
3) A weaker-than-normal Azores High prevailed during April-May. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.
4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.
Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: weak El Niño to neutral conditions, well above-average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1969, the 3rd worst hurricane season of all time, featuring Category 5 Hurricane Camille which hit Mississippi; 1966, a relatively average year that featured Category 4 Inez that killed 1,000 people in Haiti; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.
How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 1). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes are what do 80 - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses the same formula as the past two years, which did quite well predicting the 2008 hurricane season (prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes; observed: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes) and 2009 hurricane season (prediction: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes; observed: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes.) An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.44 to 0.58 for their June forecasts, which is respectable.
Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.
NOAA's 2010 hurricane season forecast
NOAA issued their forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season last week. As I discussed in my post on their forecast, NOAA is calling for very active and possibly hyperactive season. They give an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA predicts a 70% chance that there will be 14 - 23 named storms, 8 - 14 hurricanes, and 3 - 7 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the 155% - 270% of normal range. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 210% of normal. A season with an ACE index over 175% is considered "hyperactive."
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
Record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds yesterday, and has weakened slightly to 135 mph winds this morning. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone.
Phet is over very warm waters of 30 - 31°C, and is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. However, the storm is wrapping in dry air from the Arabian Peninsula, which has caused weakening. Visible satellite imagery from this morning (Figure 2) shows that the heavy thunderstorms on the north side of Phet have been eroded away by dry air. Phet is a small storm, and could fall apart fairly quickly if dry air can penetrate into its core. This should happen later today, since wind shear is on the increase, and the shearing winds should be able to disrupt the circulation enough that dry air can force its way into Phet's eyewall. Phet is fairly small, will miss the most heavily populated areas of Oman, and will likely undergo significant weakening before landfall, so the storm is unlikely to cause the kind of catastrophic flooding that Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007 brought to Oman. Gonu killed 50 people and did $4.2 billion in damage. Phet's heaviest rains will be confined to a relatively sparsely populated region of Oman's coast. Rainfall amounts in excess of 6 inches in 18 hours (Figure 3) can be expected along Oman's coast today, which will likely cause extreme flooding.
After Phet's encounter with Oman, the storm will probably be at tropical storm strength when it makes its second landfall in Pakistan. Heavy rains from Phet will be the major danger for Pakistan, and serious flooding can be expected over southern Pakistan.
Figure 3. Forecast rain amounts for the 18-hour period ending at 2am EDT June 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Oil spill update
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 - 1 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday and Monday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll be back Friday with an analysis of the new TSR hurricane forecast and a new forecast by a promising Florida State University model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Nothing in downtown Tampa either...
^^^^^ i mean wow
Yeah I'm not liking that it shows anything.
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Reflector Backup page
It is all marching away ...
gom
What are you referring to?
There absolutely NOTHING that resembles anything remotely close to a tropical cyclone.
It actually does.
Pretty interesting feature.
====================================
Cyclone Warning No. 6
Very Severe Tropical Cyclone “PHET” in Arabian Sea
This morning’s Very Severe Tropical Cyclone “PHET” (with maximum sustained
wind 65 - 120 knots near the centre) now lies at 19.0°N – 59.5°E near coastal areas
of Oman (about 850 Km southwest of Karachi). The Cyclone is expected to hit first
coastal areas of Oman in the next 6 hours and it may remain stationary over there for 24
hours. After that it may start recurving towards Pakistan coastal areas. During this
process, the cyclone is expected to lose some of its intensity. Estimates suggest that this
slow moving Tropical Cyclone would approach Pakistan’s coastal areas around Sunday
(dated 6th June, 2010) as a moderate intensity Tropical Cyclone (with maximum
sustained winds 40 – 50 knots near the centre) with associated storm surge of 3 to 5
meters.
Under the influence of this system, fairly wide spread rainfall with isolated heavy
to very heavy falls accompanied by strong gusty winds are likely in Sindh and
Balochistan coastal areas between Saturday to Tuesday.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWENTY-FIVE
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHET (ARB02-2010)
20:30 PM IST June 3 2010
=======================================
At 15:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet over west central Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lays centered near 20.0N 59.5E, or 1050 kms west southwest of Naliya, Gujarat, 1000 kms southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, 350 kms south southeast of Sur, Oman, and 70 kms southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 978 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system's center.
The Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken/solid intense to very intense convection observed over area between 18.0N to 23.0N and west of 62.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -80C in association with the system.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 21.0N over the region.
The system is interacting with land surface. Ocean heat potential over the northwest Arabian Sea is relatively less, which is not favorable for intensification.
Considering all the above, the system would move slowly in a northerly direction and cross Oman coast near 21.5N by 06:00 AM UTC, tomorrow. It would then weaken gradually, recurve northeastward and then emerge into northwest Arabian Sea by Saturday and move northeastwards towards Pakistan.
Gale winds of 60-65 knots with gusts of 70 knots would occur along and off of Oman coast at the time of landfall.
Storm Surge Guidance For Oman Coast
====================================
Storm surge of about 2 meters above the astronomical tide would occur around the time of landfall.
Forecast and Intensity
============================
9 HRS: 21.0N 59.5E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 22.0N 59.5E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 24.0N 61.5E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 25.0N 66.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Thats actually just itcz convection...the actual wave is ahead of that.
SST:
TCHP:
I hope there's nothing in the GOM. All season.
===============================
The Weather System over Arabian Sea
Warning no. 6
Heavy rainfall is continuing to fall over Masirah Island until the time of preparing this warning and over parts of coastal areas of Al-Sharqiya region associated with winds up to 60 knots. Latest Satellite images and numerical weather prediction charts indicate the tropical cyclone PHET is centered 70km east of Masirah Island over 20.0N 59.0E with maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is reduced to be around 75 knots and that is because it is approaching the land therefore it is classified as Category 2 cyclone.
Latest Satellite images and numerical weather prediction charts indicate the tropical cyclone PHET will change its direction of movement to be parallel to the eastern coasts of Masirah Island with a speed of 15km/hr and it is expected to enter the land from the area between north of Masirah Island and Ras-alhadd which will affect mainly Alsharqia region with likely a storm surge over the coastal areas of 2 meters.
The rainy convective clouds of this cyclone (PHET) expected to extend to affect Governates of Muscat and Al-buraimi and regions of, AlDhakhlia and AlBhatinah and Al-Dhaerah within the next 48 hours
The Directorate request People in the affected areas are to take precautions on the low lands from flowing Wadis because of the heavy rain and Fishermen are also advised to be precautious as seas are expected to be rough along the Sultanate's coastal areas especially the coastal areas of the Arabian Sea as wave heights may reach up to 8 meters. Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) will continue watching the weather situation and give updates accordingly.
All kinds of free sites and various model outputs here.
How are they progressing getting that cap on?
Enough with the caps lock!
Thank you, please xcool stop with the caps.
You should film a test deployment and post it on YouTube!
Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 280 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 3.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 149 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 69.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 81.0 °F
Okay thanks... im not normally like this but I have headache so naturally I am more groucy.
Not seeing much on the feed i have SJ
2 weeking?
I'd like that; it's been dry as can be here on the SW coast for days and days now thanks to a persistent onshore flow. We need our rainy season to start soon, or it'll be time to break out the lawn sprinklers again... :)
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