Tropical Storm Agatha one of the top ten deadliest Eastern Pacific storms on record
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season of 2010 is off to a bad start. The mounting death toll from Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha has made that storm one of the top ten deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 83 people in Guatemala, 13 in neighboring El Salvador, and one in Honduras. Guatemala is also suffering from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting four days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.
Figure 1. Flood damage in Zunil, Quetzaltenango, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Sergio Huertas, climaya.com
Agatha is the deadliest flooding disaster in Guatemala since Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. In a bizarre coincidence, that storm also featured a major volcanic eruption at the same time, when El Salvador's Santa Ana volcano blew its top during the height of Stan's rains in in that country on October 1. The eruption killed two and injured dozens, and worsened the mud flow damage from Stan's rains. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.
Figure 2. Two-day rainfall totals for Central America as estimated by satellite, for the period 7pm EDT Friday May 28 - 7pm EDT Sunday May 30, 2010. Rainfall amounts of 350 mm (14 inches, orange colors) were indicated for portions of Guatemala. The Guatemala government reported that rainfall exceeded 36 inches in some regions. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Tomorrow, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
I'll be back Tuesday with my first outlook for hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
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LOOK OUT! HERE WE GO!
The Atlantic continues to remain on fire. The tripole remains very well defined. Meanwhile the Pacific temps are definitely La Nina-bound.
Memorial Day - To those that gave the ultimate sacrifice
Will Dr. Masters have any guests on his show tomorrow or will he just depend on call-in's?
**IMAGES MADE BY CYCLONEKID**
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
Dr. Masters has a Hour with these topics he will be discussing,and one segment for call in's Im pretty sure.
Just coming out of lurk mode to give my thanks to all the folks who have served our country so bravely and selflessly for our entire history.
THANK YOU to all of you and God Bless!
Although conditions at Roatan and Belize City do not support a surface low at this time there appears to be a developing circulation in the mid levels offshore as is easily seen here in the shortwave loop. It also suggests a slow motion to the North which, if it continues, would not be conducive for further development due to high shear beyond 20 degrees .
This was moving, Thank you
In fact the opposite. Pressure is rising in Belize
Looks like shear will prevent that.
Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513.
The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.
???
Maybe the number 1513 killed by Stan were not all in Guatemala?
I don't see a stretched blog...and I am visiting on a "Mini" with a 10 inch monitor.
* From correspondents in Auckland
* From: AFP
* May 31, 2010 7:45PM
A GIANT plume of volcanic ash is threatening villagers in Vanuatu and disrupting flights in the Pacific, scientists and officials say.
Forecasters in New Zealand said the cloud, spewing from Vanuatu's Mount Yasur volcano, was about 1800 metres high and covered an area of about 340 square kilometres.
Tourists have been urged to stay away from the volcano on Tanna island, which has disrupted domestic flights in neighbouring New Caledonia.
Peter Korisa of the National Disaster Management Office, who is on Tanna to assess the situation, said lava and hot rocks had been spewing from the volcano and ash was raining down on nearby villages.
"There are 6000 people in the villages around the volcano, we're not moving them out yet," Mr Korisa said.
"All tourists and tourist operators have been asked to not access the volcano. The access is restricted."
Tristan Oakley, an aviation forecaster with New Zealand's Meteorological Service, said authorities had issued an advisory and it was up to airlines to avoid the affected area or cancel flights if necessary.
The plume has forced New Caledonia's AirCal to cancel two internal flights and delay another, although disruption remains tiny compared to the havoc recently seen in Europe - including a week-long shutdown in the continent's north in April.
Air Vanuatu local supervisor David Dick said flights were still running between the South Pacific country's capital, Port Vila, and Tanna island, while tourism officials also said the industry was unaffected.
However, Australia on Friday issued a travel advisory saying visitors were now barred from the volcano.
"Public access to the volcano is now strictly prohibited and people living in the risk zone should move to safer areas," the advisory said.
Vanuatu was rocked by a 7.2-magnitude earthquake on Friday, prompting a brief tsunami warning.
The archipelago, which lies between Australia and Fiji and north of New Zealand, was hit by three major quakes in October 2009.
The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.
Stan was an Atlantic storm I believe.
I believe Stan was an Atlantic storm Paul Eastern pacific
It was.
From the TCR
Estimates of the total number of lives lost in
Mexico and Central America are mostly in the range of 1000 to 2000, some even higher.
Guatemala was particularly hard hit; over 1000 persons may have perished in that country.
Right
Right. That's the distinction...
Given that season, I guess Stan was forgettable from far away. Sad, really, but I can admit it.
On the night of 31 May – 1 June, three Ko-hyoteki class midget submarines, each with a two-member crew, entered Sydney Harbour, avoided the partially constructed Sydney Harbour anti-submarine boom net, and attempted to sink Allied warships. After being detected and attacked, the crews of two of the midget submarines scuttled their boats and committed suicide without successfully engaging Allied vessels. These submarines were later recovered by the Allies. The third submarine attempted to torpedo the heavy cruiser USS Chicago, but instead sank the converted ferry HMAS Kuttabul, killing 21 sailors. This midget submarine's fate was unknown until 2006, when amateur scuba divers discovered the wreck off Sydney's northern beaches.
More here.
Actually, some of their latest jabs in the dark say there would be fewer total TCs, but slightly more intense, on average.
Constantly changing research on the amount of warming due to this or that and the effects....not surprising as it is a barely detectable phenomenon and comes with a brand new set of questions.
Thanks. I adjusted my computer and it is fine now.
Initial spill rate from Ixtoc I into the Gulf of Mexico was ~30,000barrels per day.
The ExxonValdez wreck spilled ~11million gallons or ~262,000barrels in total.
Three different methodologies used by UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey assessment teams have independently arrived at a minimum spill rate of 12,000barrels per day:
the surface survey team came up with 15,500plus-or-minus3500 barrels per day;
the plume velocity team came up with 18,500plus-or-minus6500 barrels per day;
and the third team's study remains incomplete and its methodology unannounced.
Using the agreed-upon 12,000barrels per day minimum, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled two times as much as the ExxonValdez a bit after noon on 3June2010
Using the 17,000barrels per day average of two studies, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled three times as much as the ExxonValdez before dawn on 6June2010
In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th. And passed near what is now the DeepHorizon spill area before making landfall at the extreme western end of the Florida panhandle on June11th.
Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning on 8June2005
30May2010
7Jun2005
30May2010
7Jun2005
30May2010
Shrek!
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