Tropical Storm Agatha, Pacaya volcano kill 15 in Guatemala; oil spill update
Tropical Storm Agatha, the first Eastern Pacific named storm of 2010, was short lived but deadly. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed twelve people in Guatemala, and one person in neighboring El Salvador. According to the excellent Guatemala weather site, climaya.com, rainfall amounts of up to 152 mm (six inches) in 24 hours have occurred in some regions of Guatemala. The National Hurricane Center is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 30 inches may fall the next few days in some mountainous regions near where the storm has dissipated. Adding to the mayhem is fallout from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting three days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Agatha at landfall. The storm was intensifying right up until landfall, and had an impressive "hot tower" of building cumulonimbus clouds near its center that brought heavy rains to Guatemala.
Figure 2. Flooding in Quetzaltenango, Zone 2, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Carlos Diaz, climaya.com
Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Winds are expected to shift to southwesterly on Wednesday and continue through Friday, increasing in force to 10 - 20 knots late in the week as a cold front approaches the Gulf. These persistent and strengthening southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to shore from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
I'll probably be back Monday with a quick update. Have a great holiday weekend!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I believe that would depend on how far south the dust would be. There was plenty of SAL during 2005 but, if I remember, it was farther to the North and did not affect the storms which formed closer to the ITZ. Anyone have info on what the SAL was during 2005?
Kinda like Maps without a source other than ones Coloring.
Thanks!
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El Salvador 5
Guatemala 15
Mexico 0
Nicaragua 1
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Total 21
The link is below:
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m5d29-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturd ay-May-29-2010-at-650-PM-CT
Any thoughts? In other words, he's predicting no storms in June.
By Sheila Grissett, The Times -Picayune
May 29, 2010, 11:00PM
More than $1.1 billion worth of construction on the levee system that rings the New Orleans region is finished and another $5.8 billion is under way as the curtain rises this week on a new hurricane season that many predict could be the most active since the grim Katrina-Rita year of 2005.
If forecasts are correct -- and that's always a crapshoot -- the cumulative effect of repairs, improvements and additions to 350 miles of levees, floodwalls and gates under the 159 finished contracts means that 2010 tropical storms will encounter a hardier system than the one that fell apart during Katrina almost five years ago, say numerous engineers familiar with the work.
"We're better off this year than last year. The system is already stronger and more resilient than at any time in history," said Karen Durham-Aguilera, the Army Corps of Engineers' Task Force Hope director ramrodding $14 billion in work to the federal Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System, which was known simply as the Hurricane Protection System before Katrina exposed its grave deficiencies.
hurricane-unfinished=floodwall.JPGTed Jackson / The Times-PicayuneArmy Corps of Engineer workers David Druss and Nick Silber on May 27 tour a concrete floodwall built atop the lakeside levee on the Industrial Canal where construction is ongoing on the surge barrier in eastern New Orleans. The new floodwall towers over the existing floodwall at 32 feet above sea level; the old wall, in the foregound, is 16 feet above sea level.
The overall rebuilding is far from complete. And until it is, the flood control system will still have gaps that would have to be plugged with giant sand bags and baskets, sheet piling or other materials able to hold back water.
More than 100 contracts remain to be awarded, including 16 that will be required to complete the new "100-year" level of protection that Congress authorized after Katrina. And of those contracts now in progress, some won't help at all until the 2011 storm season, but others will.
"There's a lot still to do, yes. But are we better off than ever before? Our engineers tell us absolutely," said Tim Doody, president of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority-East overseeing levee operations in East Jefferson, St. Bernard Parish and the east bank of New Orleans. "And even though there's still a lot of work left to do, each passing day gives us a bit more protection.
"Having said that, it's important that everybody remember: We won't have 100-year protection until all the projects are finished next year or whenever the corps actually completes the work," he said.
"And even then, 100-year protection isn't nearly enough, so it will remain critical that residents go when the evacuation call is given," he said.
Post-Katrina urgency
More than 1,800 people died as a result of the Aug. 29, 2005, storm, most of them drowning in New Orleans when Katrina drove a record surge of water into the southeast Louisiana coast. Waves destroyed some levees, and in other cases floodwalls with no more than 8 or 9 feet of water against them collapsed.
As a result of that tragedy, Congress authorized about $14 billion worth of repairs and upgrades to the shattered flood protection system, the heart of which is upgrading it to provide "100-year" protection -- a misnomer because it has nothing to do with one storm blowing through each century. Instead, it's a flood event with a 26 percent chance of occurring in the life of a 30-year mortgage, according to the explanation favored by the American Society of Civil Engineers and other professional groups. By way of comparison, Katrina was generally considered to be a 396-year event, and it didn't even make a direct hit on the Louisiana coast.
I found the link for the SAL in 2005 by month. Just go to the bottom and click on the month. There was a lot of SAL in 2005.
Link
I'm not sure this blog would survive.
Can't get the link to work.
Image of Sal during part of 2005 and explanation from AMOL:
The moist environment associated with the AEW axis (AEW 1);
An area of SAL air (SAL 2) behind (east of) the AEW of interest (AEW 1);
An area of convection associated with AEW 1 that was located along the leading edge of the 'newer' SAL outbreak (SAL 2). This convection was likely being enhanced by relatively denser, dry SAL air uplifting the moist tropical air out ahead of it.
An area of 'older' SAL air (SAL 1) out ahead (west) of the AEW of interest (AEW 1) that appeared to be moderating (moistening) fairly quickly in recent days, even since yesterday's 20050927n1 mission;
Here it is again....worked for me
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m5d29-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturd ay-May-29-2010-at-650-PM-CT
Former Secretary of State Colin Powell suggested on Sunday that the United States military has a role to play in helping contain the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, saying that the problem now was "beyond the capacity" of BP to stop.
"The president has to get involved as quickly as possible," Powell told ABC's This Week. "If you don't, then public opinion starts to drag you in the media, and pushes you. And so when something like this clearly is going to get beyond the capacity of whoever caused it, get beyond the capacity of local authorities, I think the federal government has to move in quickly and move in with, to use my favorite expression, decisive force and demonstrate that it's doing everything that it can do."
Powell continued: "[This] is a major problem that can only be dealt with by the federal government and all the resources of the federal government and that's what the president is now doing."
The statement by the revered military and political figure is a reflection of a growing discouragement over the failure of the Obama administration -- in practice or in perception -- to play a hands-on role in resolving the crisis. Asked whether he'd been satisfied with the extent of the president's response to this point, Powell was moderately critical.
"I think the president directly said the other day that he'd been monitoring it, following it, and ... been on top of it from the beginning," he said. "But that impression was not conveyed to the American people. And the comprehensive speech he gave the other day, I think he would have been better served -- and the nation would have been better served -- if he had given it a few weeks earlier. But I think the federal government is now fully engaged."
New Rule: Politicians Must Be Informed of Their Rights: "Everything You Say Can and Will Be Used Against You in a Google Search"
New Rule: Before running for office, politicians must be informed of their rights: that "Everything you say can and will be used against you in a Google search." Now, of course, we all embellish our resumes a little. In college, I described my job of pot dealer as "regional sales associate for a large multi-national firm." But we just had the fifth anniversary of YouTube and the twelfth of Google, and between them, they're killing off a great institution: lying. You just can't lie anymore -- facts are too easy to check, everything is on video, and your wife put a GPS in your glove compartment. Our privacy is gone, our Internet conversations are forever. I even have reason to believe I'm being recorded right now...
404 Page not found
your link has a space in the word "Saturday"
try this:
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m5d29-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturd ay-May-29-2010-at-650-PM-CT
Quote:
A balance must be established between the very favorable look of SST anomalies on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides. Cooling is very obvious in the central tropical sectors (see TAO/TRITION data) and the warmth between western Africa and the Texas shoreline is quite impressive. But if you look at the cool expression near Bermuda and the prominent southwest flow scraping the equator from South America into the Rift Valley, it seems a likely bet that another month or perhaps 6 weeks will pass before upper level flow and shear profiles will become favorable for meaningful warm-core cyclogenesis. My call is for 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major storms, with August and September being especially active. Threats to Texas and the Florida Panhandle show up strongly in analogues for the 2010 tropical cyclone season.
Okay...your link worked.
I don't see anything in the Atlantic the first 10 days of June. Maybe he's right.
I'm sticking to my February/March forecast...13-7-4..in the Atlantic.
Many here have a FACEBOOK page,even the Top Honcho,Numero uno.
The ULL and aggies reminant moisture is what the models are"forming" maybe some widespread good tropical soaking rains for FL next week w/wide spread 2-3" over central and south FL wed/thurs,IMO
Pat, just joined that link
I agree Pat, I think they HAVE to get the military involved now in all aspects from building manmade reefs to adapting military craft to scoop oil at sea.
And I mean dozens if not hundreds of boats.
Working night and day.
Recruiting local people, kitting them out. Maybe for years to come.
Using military aircraft and satellites for monitoring.
BP are now absolutely out of their depth.
In more ways than one
Ha, I'm still calling for 3-4 named storms in June.
I've been on that for a long time, but we wouldn't want to find out what actual my name is would we now?
THEN WE WAIT FOR JULY AND AUGUST THAT WILL BE ANOTHER STORY
What is going on with NOAA?
This is a question we have to ask ourselves. From hurricanes to sunspots, to the forecast for all this cool weather that was supposed to be starting now, one has to wonder. The recent release of the hurricane forecast, which was a delayed a week, moved to the NATIONAL PRESS CLUB, and then proceeded to list a range that borders on the absurd, on a number that should be a least concern ( its where they hit that counts) should be very disturbing to anyone watching the weather. It gives them a range that is so large that over 45% of the numbers, as long as they get to 14, from 1-23, can be looked at as verification. In addition the idea that La Nina will lead to more flies in the face of the fact that the worst season ever was a non nina season. So they have some splaining to do
The NOAA Space machine started touting a rapid ramp-up of cycle 24 close to 4 years ago, for 2007. This in the face of Russian ideas that said this was not coming on, and the subsequent scuttlebutt about the threat of a plummet of earthly temps by 2030, which of course is opposite of the political agenda made being driven by an EPA that will simply dictate policy, no matter what as evidence by their willingness to declare co2 a dangerous pollutant, and impose restrictions on emissions. Now this morning NOAA's space weather says the sunspot number is 43. I cant find the dang things, and in addition, the old way of counting, the way we used until these people got a hold of things can be seen here:
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
AND ITS STILL 0!!!!
And then there is this weekends, and this weeks weather. The forecast from early this week was for cool weekend lakes and northeast.. well another run at 90 is coming for Memorial day in much of the area targeted as cold. In addition, thIS WEEK was supposed to be below normal from the plains east, centered over the Tennessee valley. NOT. In the meantime, one can see what the problem is. The weekend forecasts are automated and apparently the forecasters have simply been buying the GFS garbage on the cool down. ( By the way it will cool down for a time Jun 7-10 through the lakes and northeast, but a monster heatwave is developing for Texas to Tennessee next week even as the 8-14 continues to try to cool the south down.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Much more likely, the Canadian Naefs:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html
I see TPC is not concerned about Agatha getting into the Caribbean, at least I find no circle of possibility there. Rest assured I am, and there is a chance that this pops out, or reforms east of Belize and is something to watch this weekend. In the meantime, not looking good for the 30 day June Idea from NOAA with the cool over Texas... It appears the Lone Star State is on the way to a hot summer, and much of the nation I believe will be warmer than normal.
I dont need to rent out the national press club to say that
by joe
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