Tropical Storm Agatha, Pacaya volcano kill 15 in Guatemala; oil spill update
Tropical Storm Agatha, the first Eastern Pacific named storm of 2010, was short lived but deadly. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed twelve people in Guatemala, and one person in neighboring El Salvador. According to the excellent Guatemala weather site, climaya.com, rainfall amounts of up to 152 mm (six inches) in 24 hours have occurred in some regions of Guatemala. The National Hurricane Center is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 30 inches may fall the next few days in some mountainous regions near where the storm has dissipated. Adding to the mayhem is fallout from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting three days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Agatha at landfall. The storm was intensifying right up until landfall, and had an impressive "hot tower" of building cumulonimbus clouds near its center that brought heavy rains to Guatemala.
Figure 2. Flooding in Quetzaltenango, Zone 2, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Carlos Diaz, climaya.com
Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Winds are expected to shift to southwesterly on Wednesday and continue through Friday, increasing in force to 10 - 20 knots late in the week as a cold front approaches the Gulf. These persistent and strengthening southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to shore from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
I'll probably be back Monday with a quick update. Have a great holiday weekend!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Any chnace it could redevelop in the Caribbean?
It still has some low level spin, its just weak.
yes there is a chance, the broad surface circulation is still there, clearly.
That goes to a point I was raising by responding to your post. You can only tell that something is moving towards Florida, but the level of organization is unknown at this time.
The mid/upper level circulation is moving ENE/E towards more land.. what I'm watching is the low at the surface, sure the core may have fallen apart, but there is still a broad spin moving towards the NNE.. I think a low will reform near the yucatan tonight/tomorrow
ENSO Wrap-Up: Tropical Pacific neutral; chance of La Niña increases. Issued on Wednesday 26 May 2010. Next update expected by 9 June 2010
Well here in Coconut Grove, it's time to stock up on supplies again.....
not much to it but some thunderstorms in a line on east south east side
I asked that question and it appears there is.....
Gut Punch: Top Kill failure hits hard
State and local leaders, fisherman, boaters, tourism officials and restaurant owners were all dealt a serious blow Saturday when BP conceded their latest attempt to stop the gushing well had failed.
Sometimes this helps: http://64.243.174.104/
You may not be able to log in, but you can view the blog and site. If you try to log in, it will take you to the normal WWW address, and if that has problems your in the same boat again.
If a severe hurricane makes landfall this year, there will be FEMA money for immediate relief.... but communities shouldn't expect much federal help rebuilding this time.
FEMA has already run out of their official budget and available supplies this year due to the number of disasters.
The earthquake in Haiti, snowstorms in the North-East and the flooding in Tennessee have FEMA seeing red. They have about $1 Billion in projects outstanding due to past disasters including Katrina rebuilding efforts that they don't have adequate funding for.
FEMA this year has said they will be able to provide immediate relief for a disaster, but probably won't be able to help with the rebuilding or long-term costs. During an election year, FEMA can get an emergency spending budget approved to assist. We can't expect a vote to cover funding for long-term rebuilding or relocation assistance this time, unlike 2005.
For 3-years after Katrina, evacuees were receiving relocation benefits in Houston. We all know about the FEMA trailers, the evacuation reimbursement checks and of course all of the federal housing and rebuilding assistance in New Orleans. 2005 may have been the pinnacle of federal help for a disaster.
This year will be different. Funding will be available for short term relief, but not for long term. The shrimpers, fishers and oyster-men on the Gulf Coast can't expect much FEMA help for the oil spill damage. Likewise, communities damaged by a severe hurricane can expect political visits, national guard troops handing out water and MRE rations... but don't expect a lot more help after the storm than that.
Oil Paintings
Added by Michael DeMocker, The Times-Picayune on May 29, 2010 at 8:14 PM
This photo is part of the following galleries:
Oil Paintings
heres the latest dust scan
thanks
That was my point -- 2010 may not eclipse 2005 because it will ahve at least a normal start. I would be REALLY worried if it started out early...
BTW, Agatha is falling apart like a cheap suit.
Thanks for the info. That is just what I am afraid of; being in a boat and not being able to contact anyone. LOL
The earthquake in Haiti, snowstorms in the North-East and the flooding in Tennessee have FEMA seeing red. They have about $1 Billion in projects outstanding due to past disasters including Katrina rebuilding efforts that they don't have adequate funding for.
I dont know where you get your info from, but its terribly WRONG.
Lets just say I'd like to see the link where you got this erroneous info.
FEMA News
I was on a Pre-Seasonal FEMA Discussion and Info conference call Last week for Portlight.org and none of what you posted was ever mentioned.
Period.
Very pertinent!
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator W. Craig Fugate recently sent a letter to Congress indicating serious budget shortfalls that could jeopardize FEMA’s ability to respond to disasters. It is expected that this letter will be followed by a request for $5.1 billion in emergency supplemental funding from Congress.
I think maybe someone stumbled upon this ,and other from Fugate's request which was approved in Early May.
Funny he didnt mention Rita and Ike which are still funded by FEMA in many ways still.
Wow! One day this past week, I forget which,
SAL was nearly gone off the coast of Africa. Now its back with a vengeance. Hopefully it'll stick around for, say, the next 3 or 4 months.
Define "normal start"
2005 had its first storm on June 8th, which was later than 2007 and 2 storms formed in June
May 30, 2005
*we've definitely got 2005 beat.
Click on your link that you posted. Then, scroll about 1/2 way down the page. You will see an article labled "As Hurricane Season Nears, Fema Funds Drying Up." It even quotes a FEMA official as saying basically what I did.
If you can't click on the link on the FEMA site, below is a direct link to the article.
Link
Chances are slim. Upper level conditions are still quite hostile in the southern gulf. Moisture increase for florida.
I believe that would depend on how far south the dust would be. There was plenty of SAL during 2005 but, if I remember, it was farther to the North and did not affect the storms which formed closer to the ITZ. Anyone have info on what the SAL was during 2005?
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