90L heads for North Carolina, drenches Bermuda; oil spill changing little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT en Mayo 24, 2010

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An extratropical low pressure system (90L) between the Bahamas and Bermuda is moving north-northwest towards North Carolina and is close to tropical storm strength. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained ENE winds of 36 mph, gusting to 43 mph this morning. Bermuda is seeing some heavy weather from this storm, with winds blowing at 35 mph on the west end of the island, and the Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain moving over the island. Seas are running 5 - 10 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today, and are expected to increase to 10 - 14 feet tonight before diminishing on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 25 knots of wind shear over 90L, but the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L does not have a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. I expect that 90L will continue to grow more subtropical in nature today through Wednesday as the shear continues to fall. Sea surface temperatures are near 25°C today and will fall to 23 - 24°C on Tuesday. This is warm enough to support a subtropical storm, but probably not a tropical storm. On Wednesday, 90L will be nearing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and SSTs will warm again, to the 24 - 25°C range. This is still pretty cool for a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will never become fully tropical. To understand the difference between a tropical and subtropical storm and why we care, see my subtropical storm tutorial.

The SHIPS model predicts that shear will fall to the medium 10 - 20 knot range by Tuesday. A large amount of dry air to 90L's southwest associated with the upper-level trough of low pressure on top of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops , will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical or tropical storm. The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 200 - 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, as it appears that it will remain offshore and will become, at worst, a 40 - 50 mph subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Western Caribbean disturbance
A small region of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean, off the east coast of Nicaragua. Moisture is expected to increase across in this area in the coming days, and by Saturday, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that shear will drop low enough to permit the possible development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression. This storm would then move northeastward over eastern Cuba early next week. The other models keep the shear high in the Caribbean all week, and do not show anything developing. Thus, the Western Caribbean bears watching later this week, but the conditions appear marginal for development.

Moderate risk of severe weather today in northern Plains
The Storm Prediction Center has placed western Nebraska and portions of South and North Dakota under their "Moderate" risk for severe weather today. They warn that "a couple of strong and possibly long-track tornadoes appear possible given the forecast scenario." Keep an eye on the activity today with our Severe Weather Page.

Major oil threat continues for the coast of Louisiana
Light winds are expected to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting in continued oiling threats to the Louisiana shoreline from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. There is no longer a flow of oil moving southwards towards the Loop Current, and the oil that did move southwards last week was mostly entrained into a counter-clockwise rotating eddy attached to the northern boundary of the Loop Current. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery over the weekend showed that most of this oil has dispersed, and very little of this oil is now visible from space (Figure 2.) Imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and from NOAA aircraft did not show any oil in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys over the weekend, so that is good news. NOAA comments that there may be some "scattered tar balls" in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys. I expect these scattered tar balls have completed the full loop of the Loop Current and are now headed east towards the Keys, and will pass the Dry Tortugas and Key West sometime Wednesday - Saturday. My guess is that the oil and its accompanying plume of toxic dispersants will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:41am EDT Saturday May 22, 2010, by the European Envisat-1 satellite. Only scattered patches of oil are evident in the counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the northern boundary of the Loop Current. A small amount of oil appears to be in the Loop Current, and is moving southward. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Future threats to the Keys
Mostly offshore winds are expected this week over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thanks to the approach of the 90L storm along the Southeast U.S. coast. It is uncertain if these winds will be strong enough to push oil southward into the Loop Current, though at least one ocean trajectory model does show this occurring. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. At least one ocean model (the Global HYCOM model from the HYCOM consortium) is predicting that such an eddy will form this week. In the event a Loop Current Eddy does break off, it would create a rotating ring of water 250 miles in diameter to the south of the oil spill. Oil moving southwards would tend to enter the giant eddy and circulate around it, not threatening any land areas. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Thus we can expect that a portion of any oil moving southwards into a Loop Current Eddy will find its way into the Loop Current and move past the Florida Keys.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1234. mikatnight
5:53 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
BREAKING NEWS

BP to terminate live feed during Top Kill procedure.
Member Since: Octubre 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1233. aspectre
1:48 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
17 wadedanielsmith "Man, get real. The Deepwater Horizon spill has passed Exxon Valdez a full month ago, and is currently no less than 11 Exxon Valdez, and fast approaching 12 Exxon Valdez."

Ever since BP's CEO quickly slapped down his own public relations head for disagreeing with the estimate approved for public consumption by the NOAA director, I've strongly suspected that "5000barrels per day" to be at the lowest level that wouldn't cause an open revolt by NOAA's analytic staff.
It's fairly safe to make your subordinates think "The boss is an idiot." And another thing altogether to make them think "The boss is trying to brand me as a lying incompetent."

But otherwise, I haven't a clue: too many variables to fill in with information not available to the public.
And neither do you. 1000microns equals 1millimeter


I do admit having my own shot-in-the-dark range of plausible flow rates, which is only 12%to36% as high as your estimate. And still have hope that NOAA admin isn't as off-base as I think.
However the cancellation of last week's HurricaneSeason press conference in Miami for a transfer to this week in Washington,DC makes me suspect that NOAA admin is getting a face-to-face grilling by the WhiteHouse.

But guess what? Having Godzilla tromping through Tokyo is bad enough. And so is NOAA's "5000barrels per day" when talkin' about crude in the Gulf, into&onto the coastline, and down on the reefs.
Any speculations about whether Mothra&Gang joined in on the Dance of Death can be answered at the post-mortem, after the well has been capped.

The USNavy probably knows to within a percent or so -- or at least has or has had data that would allow analysts to make such a determination -- but they're busy playing "don't ask, don't tell".
For "reasons of national security", Naval brass like to pretend that potential adversaries remain unaware that the USmilitary has better sonar equipment than a mediocre*commercial fishing trawler.

And most constitutional protections that corporations enjoy against self-incrimination during criminal investigations don't apply to civil discovery proceedings.

The only real question is whether the federal judiciary will once again thwart Justice in aid of their self-perceived peers, ala the five Supremes going to bat for Exxon.

Transocean has already managed to get all DeepwaterHorizon lawsuits consolidated to be tried under the jurisdiction of a Texas judge: even though there is virtually no chance that the spill will directly affect Texas; even though the corporation isn't based in Texas. So there is a better than 50/50 chance that Transocean will be allowed to walk away from their obligation to-make-whole by paying the $75million**limit to the plaintiffs in order to prevent discovery proceedings.
From what I've read, Transocean stands to make a very healthy profit from receipt of insurance payouts for the loss of DeepwaterHorizon, even after spending $75million to settle lawsuits.
Not bad for a company that also hosted the Ixtoc I blowout.

* Any decent commercial fishing trawler could provide far better information about flow shape&volume and flow speeds&directions than those thus far provided to the public by either BritishPetroleum or the government.

** Thank the Senators and Representatives that you will once again reelect for keeping the Interests of Oil deep in their hearts.
Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1232. nrtiwlnvragn
1:36 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


While I agree that hurricane science is improving. 7-days and 5 days for track and genesis, respectively will still incur some difficulties. Earth has the most unpredictable weather of any planet in the solar system and it will remain unpredictable for centuries to come. I do applaud them however for their effects despite these facts. Kudos to them.


They started doing the 5 day genesis in house last year and they will need to work on their procedures. Once they can start demonstrating skill I think they will keep it in house for several more years to verify before it becomes operational. Same with extending track forecasts. All of the work involving the HFIP should help. This summer they may have up to 5 planes flying storms, possible all at the same time!
Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10468
1231. IKE
1:34 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1230. Cavin Rawlins
1:29 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Q & A for NHC - Chris Landsea

Excerpt:

Where do you see the science of hurricane forecasting in the next five years?

One road that looks very promising is extending our forecasts further out in time. Currently we do a five day forecast for an existing storm, and we are likely to start testing our ability to go out to seven days in the near future. If that works, I could see us providing public seven-day forecasts in a few years. Additionally, we are testing doing genesis predictions out to five days. Right now, the Tropical Weather Outlook goes through two days. But because the global models are improving so much for providing predictions, we might be able to extend that further out, too.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Q & A for NHC - Chris Landsea

Excerpt:

Where do you see the science of hurricane forecasting in the next five years?

One road that looks very promising is extending our forecasts further out in time. Currently we do a five day forecast for an existing storm, and we are likely to start testing our ability to go out to seven days in the near future. If that works, I could see us providing public seven-day forecasts in a few years. Additionally, we are testing doing genesis predictions out to five days. Right now, the Tropical Weather Outlook goes through two days. But because the global models are improving so much for providing predictions, we might be able to extend that further out, too.


While I agree that hurricane science is improving. 7-days and 5 days for track and genesis, respectively will still incur some difficulties. Earth has the most unpredictable weather of any planet in the solar system and it will remain unpredictable for centuries to come. I do applaud them however for their effects despite these facts. Kudos to them.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1229. Cavin Rawlins
1:25 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Q & A for NHC - Chris Landsea


Interesting.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1228. 900MB
1:24 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I think 90L may be deactivated...soon. If I'm wrong, slice me some crow.

I was just about to agree with you. The dry air has been a killer here, but I would give it a few more hours to see if the latest blowup was a blow off. I think the pressure gradient with the highs to the North will probably exaggerate wind speeds and keep the hype alive.
Member Since: Junio 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 643
1226. largeeyes
1:17 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
weather456---I'm in New Bern, NC near Morehead. May get a stray shower, but not the soaking I need.
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
1225. nrtiwlnvragn
1:17 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Q & A for NHC - Chris Landsea

Excerpt:

Where do you see the science of hurricane forecasting in the next five years?

One road that looks very promising is extending our forecasts further out in time. Currently we do a five day forecast for an existing storm, and we are likely to start testing our ability to go out to seven days in the near future. If that works, I could see us providing public seven-day forecasts in a few years. Additionally, we are testing doing genesis predictions out to five days. Right now, the Tropical Weather Outlook goes through two days. But because the global models are improving so much for providing predictions, we might be able to extend that further out, too.
Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10468
1224. MahFL
1:16 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Ahhhhh!!!!!!!. TWC just mentioned extreme weather and a tropical disturbance in the atlantic......why oh why do they still think exaggerating is a good idea ?
Member Since: Junio 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2909
1223. Cavin Rawlins
1:15 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting msphar:
well looks like hurricane season is almost upon us. Not much change I note there, given the current date versus historical events I saw posted here recently. 90L has managed to burn off a lot of latent heat which is always a good thing, unless you are a little boat in the path. My focus remains the MDR but the ITCZ seems to cling to the Southern route which is something that I note and like.


?
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1222. Cavin Rawlins
1:14 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
90L actually looks much better than yesterday.



Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1221. msphar
1:12 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
well looks like hurricane season is almost upon us. Not much change I note there, given the current date versus historical events I saw posted here recently. 90L has managed to burn off a lot of latent heat which is always a good thing, unless you are a little boat in the path. My focus remains the MDR but the ITCZ seems to cling to the Southern route which is something that I note and like.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
1220. lickitysplit
1:11 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
re:1218

well howdy neighbor! im here in taos county. the wind has been unreal this spring and the relentless cold....brrrrrr....ive had enough!
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
1219. Stormchaser2007
1:10 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
90L actually looks much better than yesterday.

Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1218. CycloneOz
1:06 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting lickitysplit:
here in NM it was freezing cold last night. 23F when I woke up this morning. The water in the hummingbird feeders is frozen and the hose on the garden is all iced up.

I'm ready for summer. Sheesh.


I live in NM, too!

WHEN WILL IT END! :(
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1217. CycloneOz
1:05 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Last night, we got the website functioning well...and I fixed the "jury-rig" issue with my storm chase helmet communications. We did a test of the system last night and it works very well! :)

All systems go! We'll do some more equipment testing this weekend that will tell me how long I can stay up and running on a battery, since the live webcam system is designed to be portable.
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1216. Stormchaser2007
1:03 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1215. lickitysplit
1:03 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
here in NM it was freezing cold last night. 23F when I woke up this morning. The water in the hummingbird feeders is frozen and the hose on the garden is all iced up.

I'm ready for summer. Sheesh.
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
1214. CycloneOz
1:03 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I think 90L may be deactivated...soon. If I'm wrong, slice me some crow.


Let's kill it while it still clings to life! :)
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1213. nrtiwlnvragn
1:00 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I think 90L may be deactivated...soon. If I'm wrong, slice me some crow.


Not yet

AL 90 2010052512 BEST 0 299N 720W 40 1005 LO
Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10468
1212. lickitysplit
12:55 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
latest satellite images showing a pretty relentless amount of oil all over the central and eastern gulf.
Member Since: Mayo 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
1211. Cavin Rawlins
12:54 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
90L has to be one of those invest with the most vortices within a circulation.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1210. Cavin Rawlins
12:50 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting P451:
Hurricane Images from Space


Where's Dean, he had one of the most spectacular eyes seen from Space.


Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1209. weathermanwannabe
12:50 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
I'm cheering for 90L to get a groove on and keep moving west; the circulation will help keep some of the Gulf oil away from the coast for a little while (they need all the help theny can get)....
Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8298
1208. IKE
12:49 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I think 90L may be deactivated...soon. If I'm wrong, slice me some crow.
Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1207. msgambler
12:48 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting twhcracker:


I wish i was there! I love the "friendship Oak" at the college campus there on the beach highway. Put 10.00 on RED on the roulette wheel for me :)
Done: but my interest rate are HIGH......LOL
Member Since: Febrero 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1205. twhcracker
12:46 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting msgambler:
twhcracker, the reason the water is murky and not clear, like say Pensacola, is because of the barrier islands stirring up the sand in the water. Well, years ago the drains from the roads used to go into the sound but they found out how bad that was and stopped that. And yes it is shallow, but that's what you get for a man-made beach. And as for the gambling, well let's just say I'm hanging at the Isle for a week while I work out of Pass Christian. Free rooms, gotta love em'


I wish i was there! I love the "friendship Oak" at the college campus there on the beach highway. Put 10.00 on RED on the roulette wheel for me :)
Member Since: Julio 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:44 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1203. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:42 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Everyone except Weather Research.

They have 8 storms.
thats the forecast for july they forgot august september and october
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1202. AussieStorm
12:42 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1201. Cavin Rawlins
12:39 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting StormW:


456,
I believe they are the office that just uses the solar cycle. Don't know why they even bother. 8? LMAO!...we had what 9, 10 last season in an El Nino?


Excatly, no logic there.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1200. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:38 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning KOTG
good day to you
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1199. Stormchaser2007
12:37 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


lol lol Based on what...?

Not sure lol

JB had a link a few days ago. Cant find it now.
Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1197. eddye
12:36 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
winter 13 is a lier because i said the gulf coast before and i was right
Member Since: Agosto 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
1196. msgambler
12:34 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Good morning KOTG
Member Since: Febrero 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1195. Cavin Rawlins
12:33 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Everyone except Weather Research.

They have 8 storms.


lol lol Based on what...?
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1194. Stormchaser2007
12:32 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
Everybody jumping on this hyperactive season.

ACE could exceed 200.


Everyone except Weather Research.

They have 8 storms.
Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1191. Cavin Rawlins
12:30 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Everybody jumping on this hyperactive bandwagon. I'm hoping high winds don't knock over the bandwagon and everybody falls out.

ACE could exceed 200.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1190. Cavin Rawlins
12:29 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting eddye:
that thing in the e pac if it comes into the carribean it could become a ts or hurricane and hit fl or somewhere else because right know it looks really good i think we could be dealing with a system next week


Not to be rude but does everything has to hit Florida?

The chances of a hurricane hitting Florida next week are slim because the subtropical jet is creating a protective shield from 20N.

Also for the system to hit FL it would have to go north or NNE. The current steering for next week is NE.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1189. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:29 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
good day all
nice day here 830 in the morning allreadsy 75 outside with a heat index of 80 gonna be a hot one thanks to 90l
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1188. Quadrantid
12:28 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Quoting eddye:
did u people read wat i wrote


I suspect they did, but didn't get chance to reply yet :)

I'm a fairly newish poster, but I've hung around here for ages (hi everybody!). I'd guess the thing with the EPac disturbance is that it'll get disrupted passing over the land, to some extent (it's quite mountainous down there, right), and then have to redevelop in what might not be ideal conditions on the other side. Are any of the models taking it to hurricane strength? I thought most people were posting showed a depression/weak TS forming, and only that intermittently, but I may well have missed something ;)
Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
1187. Stormchaser2007
12:28 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Joe B.

"TUESDAY

AND NOW, STORM 2K WEIGHS IN!

Another hurricane forecast, as super counterweight to Weather Research with their 8, is now in. Storm 2k has 24-27 storms!

If you read their site, you see most of the same things I have been saying about this since February. I want the battlelines drawn where I first started to fight, not where someone else decides to join the fight. However, one thing that is keeping me in check with 16-18, though the major threat on the coast, and yes the chance the kind of season they have comes to pass, is the QBO, which still does not look the way I have to see it to completely go wild. But now the range of forecast storms is 8 to 26 with me at 17 (16-18).

My forecast for the NOAA forecast.. 14-18 potential for 20. Let's see how close I come to the big release Thursday, which by the way was pushed back a week and changed to the Washington Press Club. Apparently they want an even bigger podium.

All of us, out here first with our forecasts, welcome NOAA to the party, even though they were last to get here. Hopefully, they bring the pizza and more beer."

AccuPro
Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:27 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010

90l
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1185. eddye
12:24 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
did u people read wat i wrote
Member Since: Agosto 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
1184. Cavin Rawlins
12:23 PM GMT en Mayo 25, 2010
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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