Solar impacts on hurricanes
I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. This is the premier scientific conference on hurricanes, and is held only once every two years, so pretty much all of the world's greatest hurricane experts are here. One of the more intriguing posters presented at Tuesday's poster session was titled, Evidence linking solar variability with USA hurricanes, by Robert Hodges and Jim Elsner of Florida State University. They showed that the probability of three or more hurricanes hitting the U.S. during a hurricane season with warmer than average sea surface temperatures increases dramatically during minima in the 11-year sunspot cycle. The odds increase from 20% to 40% for years when the sunspot activity is in the lower 25% of the sunspot cycle, compared to years in the upper 25% of the cycle. Near the peak of the sunspot cycle, the odds of at least one hurricane hitting the U.S. are just 25%, but at solar minimum, the odds increase sharply to 64%. The authors studied the period 1851 - 2008, and controlled for other variables such as changes in sea surface temperature and El Niño. Such a large impact of the sun on hurricanes might seem surprising, given that the change in solar energy at all light wavelengths is only about 0.1%. This relatively small change causes just a 0.1°C change in Earth's mean surface temperature between the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle (high solar activity) and the minimum of the sunspot cycle (where we are now.) However, variation in radiation between extrema of the solar cycle can be 10% or more in portions of the UV range (Elsner et al., 2008.) The strong change in UV light causes globally averaged temperature swings in the lower stratosphere of 0.4°C between the minimum and maximum of the sunspot cycle--four times as great as the difference measured at Earth's surface (Lean, 2009). This sensitivity of the stratosphere to UV light is due to the fact the ozone layer is located in the stratosphere. Ozone absorbs a large amount of UV light, causing the stratosphere to heat up when solar activity is high. The authors speculate that a warmer stratosphere then heats up the upper troposphere, making the atmosphere more stable. An unstable atmosphere--with hot temperatures at the surface and cold conditions in the upper troposphere--are conducive for stronger hurricanes. Thus, we would expect to see reductions in hurricanes during the peak of the sunspot cycle.
Previous research
The findings presented at this week's conference build upon earlier work published by Elsner et al. (2008) and Elsner et al. (2010). The first of these studies found that for every 100 extra sunspots in September, the temperature of the atmosphere at 16 km altitude over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico increased by about 0.5°C, and the number of hurricanes in this region was reduced by 26%. Interestingly, a reduction of hurricanes over the eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa was not observed during solar maxima, which the authors attributed to the fact that hurricanes in this region are limited by sea surface temperature, not instability. Solar maximum brings a small increase in sea surface temperature to the globe, aiding hurricane development in regions where sea surface temperature is the limiting factor. The second of these studies (Elsner et al., 2010) computed that for a Category 2 hurricane affecting the U.S. during the most active 30% range of the solar cycle, the resultant heating of the upper troposphere would cause a 19% decrease in the stability, lowering the hurricane's winds by 10% (10 mph.) Stronger hurricanes would be affected even more, with a potential wind speed reduction of 23 mph for the most powerful hurricanes. The 27-day rotation period of the sun causes a change in UV light even larger than the change observed during the 11-year sunspot cycle, so perhaps we should be monitoring the phase of the sun's rotation to look for more favorable periods for hurricane formation.
Commentary
Considering that this year we are at the deepest solar minimum in more than a century, this research gives us yet another reason to expect a severe Atlantic hurricane season this year. My next post, which may not be until Monday, I'll discuss the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic hurricane main development region, which set an all-time record last month for the warmest monthly anomaly for the 100+ years we have records. Also, El Niño now appears to be over, as sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific have crossed the threshold into neutral territory.
References
Elsner, J. B., and T. H. Jagger, 2008, United States and Caribbean tropical cyclone activity related to the solar cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18705, doi:10.1029/2008GL034431.
Elsner, J. B., T. H. Jagger, and R. E. Hodges, 2010, Daily tropical cyclone intensity response to solar ultraviolet radiation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043091.
Lean, J.L., 2009, Cycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate", Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 111-122 Published Online: 22 Dec 2009
Jeff Masters
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Link
GFS Ensembles 500mb Day 10:
Link
Link
Thanx for dat Link Ol Gro.
Wow, this is the lowest we have seen the EUROSIP in its MSLP forecast yet. This is impressive for a multi-model forecast system, and again a scary look for the United States and Caribbean with the lowest pressures in a band across the Caribbean islands, Bahamas, and GOM.
Joe's one man Pat. Their Global Warming site is fairly neutral. This is their official "position" on the climate change issue:
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In the AccuWeather.com Global Warming Center, you will find links to the latest research, commentary by experts with various points of view on all aspects of climate change, and a forum for you to share your own thoughts, ask questions, and interact with the best scientific minds and knowledge in this area. From time to time, we may post questions about climate change for general consideration and to further stimulate debate. We welcome your contributions to the discussion.
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Just because someone disagrees with his point of view on something, doesn't mean he isn't reliable
And that's exactly right.
How many people do we know in here, including myself, who are very opinionated on the AGW issue. Does that mean our tropical opinions and forecasts are also as controversial? No of course not.
Sheesh..
No one said he wasnt a good forecaster,..anyone can read the Data these days..and spit out a powerpoint on it.
We have 15 yr olds here doing that.
Notice how JB has Limited TV visibility the last few years.
FOX fired the guy,so that says a lot.
LOL
He was on FOX 10 days ago about the oil spill Pat, and a couple months before that on a GW debate with Bill Nye.
Again, you must remember he was forecasting 10 storms for the 2009 hurricane season last year at this time. Sound like scaring old ladies to you? He made a big deal about little impact on the United States last year from hurricanes.
MJO HEADING TOWARD FAVORABLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PHASE.
I am back from Houston and wanted to post this quickly. The latest GFS upward motion forecast is showing strong upward motion developing over the Caribbean for the late part of May as seen here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/gfs.gif
by joe
xcool...
I think many use his take on the Hurricane slamming into the Northeast as pure hype, ignore everything else he says and then call him a hypist lol
Only hear what they want to hear to make their argument
Yeah the northeast hurricane thing is something he gets bashed for, but he is right in voicing the concern year after year, because we are entering the same climate pattern as in the 1950s and look what happened to the eastern seaboard in the 1950s.
Patrap check you WU Mail
There's another recent paper on the same issue as related to the Caribbean.....I don't have it handy at the moment.
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FROM: FIONA HORSFALL
CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
SUBJECT: EARLY ISSUANCE OF THE JUNE 2010 EL NINO-SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION /ENSO/ DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION
THE JUNE 2010 EDITION OF THE MONTHLY EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION /ENSO/ DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 3 2010...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED.
THE CHANGE IS DUE TO THE ONGOING RAPID TRANSITION FROM EL NINO TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THIS IS A ONE TIME ONLY CHANGE. IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE ISSUANCE DATE FOR THE JULY 2010 OR SUBSEQUENT ENSO DISCUSSIONS.
1. BP is getting hammered.
2. Bastardi is being critisized for over-hyping the 2010 hurricane season.
3. People are arguing over our dependance on Oil.
4. Bloggers arguing over # of storms for 2010 season.
I can't wait until Hurricane Season!
951: I'm right at the epicenter, maybe a little to the East. I have a moat around my house and a tree in my yard with the top blown out by lightning. It is a wild day!
someone told you wrong
[Particle Image Velocimetry] = 70,000 barrels per day!
Here is a copy of the Abstact; this paper is actually from 2003:
Abstract
The warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is known to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, and several studies have evaluated the influence of ENSO on hurricane landfalls in the United States. The present analysis focuses on hurricane landfall probabilities in relation to ENSO for landmasses surrounding the Caribbean Sea. La Niña events are found to be associated with an increased probability of hurricane landfalls in the Caribbean as a whole. Regional variations in the impact of ENSO on hurricane landfall probabilities in the Caribbean are identified, including a lack of an El Niño decrease in probability (relative to neutral years) in the east and west Caribbean.
Best laugh of the day so far ...
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What is OZ's website again i forgot to bookmark it
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5. There is a conspiracy to cover up the scale of the true oil leakage
extremehurricanes.com I believe
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Iceland Volcano Ash Plume Collides with Weather Front
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