The death toll from last weekend's record flooding in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Mississippi has risen to 24, making it the deadliest non-tropical storm or hurricane flood disaster in the U.S. since the October 1998 Central Texas floods that killed 31 when a cold front stalled over Texas. As flood waters recede today, the toll from last weekend's floods is expected to grow higher. Particularly hard-hit was the Nashville, Tennessee area, where ten fatalities were reported. The city had its heaviest 1-day and 2-day rainfall amounts in its history over the weekend. A remarkable 7.25" of rain fell on the city Sunday, breaking the record for most rain in a single day (6.60", set September 13, 1979.) Nashville's third greatest day of rainfall on record occurred Saturday, when 6.32" fell. Nashville also eclipsed its greatest 6-hour and 12-hour rainfall events on record, with 5.57" and 7.20", respectively, falling on Sunday. And, only two days into the month, the weekend rains made it the rainiest May in Nashville's history.
Rainfall records were smashed all across Tennessee, Kentucky, and northern Mississippi over the weekend, with amounts as high as 17.73" recorded at Camden, TN, and 17.02" at Brownsville, TN. According to Chris Burt, the author of the excellent book Extreme Weather, the 13.30" that fell on Camden in 24 hours just missed eclipsing the state's all-time 24-hour precipitation record, the 13.60" inches that fell on Milan on September 13, 1982. Jackson, Tennessee had its rainiest day in its 63-year weather history on Sunday, 7.93". Bowling Green Kentucky had its heaviest 2-day precipitation event on record, 9.67". Records in Bowling Green go back to 1870.
Figure 1. Satellite-estimated precipitable water at 23 UTC (7 pm EDT) Sunday, May 2, 2010. Precipitable water is a measure of how much rain would be produced if all the water vapor and cloud moisture through the depth of the atmosphere were to fall as rain. Values above 50 mm (about 2 inches) are frequently associated with flooding. Sunday's precipitable water image showed a tropical disturbance crossed Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico, dragging a plume of very moist air northwards over the Southeast U.S. Image credit: University of Wisconsin GOES Satellite Blog.
Figure 2. Flood forecast for the Cumberland River in Nashville, Tennessee. Image credit: NOAA.
The record rains were accompanied by a surge of very warm air that set record high temperature marks at 21 major airports across the Eastern U.S. on Saturday. This is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record high temperatures are present. Accompanying this warm air was moisture from a tropical disturbance that crossed over Mexico from the tropical East Pacific over the weekend (Figure 1.)
The record rains sent the Cumberland River in downtown Nashville surging to 51.86' this morning, 12' over flood height, and the highest level the river has reached since a flood control project was completed in the early 1960s. The previous post-flood control project record level was 47.6', set on March 15, 1975 (the river hit 56.2' in 1929, before the flood control project was built.) The river has now crested (Figure 2) and is expected to recede below flood stage by Wednesday morning. There are no further rains in the forecast this week for Tennessee. At least four rivers in Tennessee reached their greatest flood heights on record this week. Most remarkable was the Duck River at Centreville, which crested at 47', a full 25 feet above flood stage, and ten feet higher than the previous record crest, achieved in 1948 (to check out the flood heights, use our wundermap for Nashville with the "USGS River" layer turned on.)
Funding issues to take 17 Tennessee streamgages offline
According to the USGS web site, seventeen Tennessee streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. With up to eighteen people in Tennessee dying from flooding this weekend, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by taking 17 of Tennessee's 94 streamflow gages out of service. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, Tennessee and most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming. Both factors have already contributed to significant increases in flooding events in recent decades over much of the U.S. The USGS web site advertises that users who can contribute funding for the non-Federal share of costs to continue operation of these streamgages should contact Shannon Williams of the USGS Tennessee Water Science Center at 615-837-4755 or swilliam@usgs.gov. Tennessee is not the only state with streamgages at risk of closing down; fully 276 gages in 37 states have been shut down or will be shut down later this year. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.
Oil spill update
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has retreated from the coast, thanks to a slackening of the persistent onshore winds that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past week. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will be light and variable through Wednesday, resulting in little transport of the oil slick. Winds will then resume a weak onshore flow at 5 - 10 knots, Thursday through Friday, then reverse to blow offshore at 5 - 10 knots over the weekend. The net result of this wind pattern will be little transport of the oil slick. The only areas at risk of landfalling oil over the next five days will be the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, and the Chandeleur Islands. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) show weak ocean currents affecting the region during the remainder of the week. These currents will not be strong enough to push any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days, so the Keys and South Florida are safe from oil for now. I'll have a post on the long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current later this week, and a discussion of how a hurricane might affect and be affected by the oil spill.
Figure 3. Forecast location at 6pm CDT Tuesday, May 4, 2010, of the oil slick from the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.
Jeff Masters
If you saw my other pics of this sculpture you cam get an idea how high the Cumberland river has risen. when I left it was still getting higher.
Harpeth River Flooding (
XMLP)
I am a wrecker driver for Martin's wrecker service. We were called to remove the vehicles that got caught in the flooding on interstate I 24 westbound near the Bell Road exit in Nashville Tennessee. Of course this is after the waters had subsided. It was roughly 200, 250 cars and trucks that got caught up in the flood..
This is looking east - the Cumberland River is just on the other side of the buildings.
Parking via Mother Nature (
jadnash)
This car drove into the swiftly moving water at the Belle Meade Kroger and was thrown up against a parking deck. Luckily someone got a ladder and dropped it down to break the rear window and the driver climbed out safely!
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Well I am just a longtime lurker, but I do like reading your stuff so welcome back Addict.
5,000 foot down, guided by a surface crane and really long winch cables and only able to see via unmanned submersibles... this is a risky and high-tech assignment.
This calls for the 'A' team. I think we need Bruce Willis, Clint Eastwood and Chuck Norris to get involved. One of them needs to guide the crane, while another stands by looking gruff and worried. The third needs to get into a submersible and hand-guide the 100-ton structure into place. Then, at just the right time, something will go wrong and one of them needs to give a patriotic speech and then sacrifice themselves in order to shut off the oil flow and save the gulf.
I wonder... does BP have the budget to hire the necessary Hollywood cast to get this done right?
If you announce you are going to spray soap over an area the size of Maryland as a part of a geoengineering experiment, you would be stopped and/or hauled away.
If you announce you are spraying dispersing agent across the oil slick that will re-sequester the carbon AND raise ocean PH levels that will help fight ocean acidification, you would be a hero of the industrial right AND green left.
First of all, stopping drilling in the gulf would be dumb.
There have been plenty of calls for nationalizing the oil companies. There is a post in here suggesting it. BP is responsible and there is no doubt about that but that has nothing to do with who or what is to blame. Perhaps it was out of BP's control. Perhaps it was mother nature and something out of the ordinary. BP doesn't make the BOP so perhpas that was the cause. My point being, we don't know what caused this issue yet. BP and the oil industry is being demonized to make the public feel good and that is not helpful. Typical society to immeadiately blame, file lawsuits and demonize the others side. All of the energy could be used to elsewhere at this point. Heck, you even have people demonizing the .gov and the current President over response time. Enough already...just work to fix the problem and start cleaning up. This bickering and fingerpointing does nothing but divide the country.
(true color, 250m resolution plot of South LA and the Northern Gulf)
and when your prediction doesnt come true. then what
I disagree with your last statement. Make the third world country richer, feed them more money to plan attacks on USA. Yes i know not all countries, just one is enough. I'm not saying lets drill, drill, drill, but I'm saying we cant stop. Would you pay 10$ per gallon for gas? I sure wouldn't, but that's the road you open if you ask for them to stop drilling all together.
\
Atmoaggie is right...thanks to our contractual agreements, Saudi oil is cheaper (marginally) than oil drilled here...besides, the oil companies are making nice profits selling our oil under contract at a higher rate...
Why would we be paying $10 a gallon? The oil from the GOM DOES NOT MAKE IT HERE, at least not for sale
i see it just fine
what you expect
there are so many canes its funny
:)
Watch your language on the blog, Amy!!!! This is a family blog.
Flood, correct me if I am wrong here but I thought it was world oil prices per barrel that drive our gas prices. If China buys more oil and the barrel price goes up, our gas price goes up. So it does not matter where the GOM oil goes, it just decreases the world supply and that drives the price per barrel up. We are,like it or not after all, in a world economy.
:)
Yes, and you may call me Gro!
;)
I'm late responding, work just keeping getting in the way.
Its a lovely spring day here. The temperature is at freezing and the wind at 40 to 60 K.
And for summer vacation, we recently booked a trip to Alaska. I am seriously reconsidering that finely crafted decision.
Glad to hear your taking care of yourself. I won't need one. If a Cat 5 heads for Ft. Lauderdale. I will probably be in Ontario. But thanks for thinking of us.
:)
I have very little faith in that. I offer the penalties that were "actually" paid by exxon for wrecking 1200 miles of coastline.. that still twenty years later has not returned to the pristine state it was before the defilement.
;)
I wonder if they have every tested a building that large down that deep and what makes them think it won't get crushed? 5,000 ft is roughly 152 atmospheres.
If you look on satellite imagery south of Panama, you will see a broad area of convection. This area has been persistent with convection in the last 36 hours but its convection is being sucked by a ULL south of Cuba and west of Jamaica. What is surprising me is that this area has been stationary for at least 30 hours and it is not associated with the ITCZ because the ITCZ is north and west of it. No models showing any development but it is still an area of interest, because of warm SST's, low shear, and it also has pretty good 850MB vorticity.
*I will be updating my blog with more information on early season tropics if anyone is interested.
BP Oil Spill Incident Response Site
www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com
Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response
Gulf of Mexico-Transocean Drilling Incident
DATE: May 03, 2010 21:59:42 CST
PHOTO RELEASE: Discoverer Enterprise drillship, Development Drill III
* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401
ROBERT, La. - The Transocean drillship, Discoverer Enterprise, prepares to conduct recovery operation for BP using a specially-built "dome" at the sea floor Monday, May 3, 2010. With the use of the dome and connection system to flow the leaking oil the crew of the Discoverer Enterprise will be capable of recovering up to 125,000 barrels of oil. Photo provided by Transocean.
ROBERT, La. - The Transocean drillship, Discoverer Enterprise, prepares to conduct recovery operation for BP using a specially-built "dome" at the sea floor Monday, May 3, 2010. With the use of the dome and connection system to flow the leaking oil the crew of the Discoverer Enterprise will be capable of recovering up to 125,000 barrels of oil. Photo provided by Transocean.
ROBERT, La. - The ultra-deepwater semisubmersible rig Development Drill III had begun operations for drilling a relief well Monday, May 3, 2010. A relief well is designed to drill down and intersect the existing well bore and pump heavy fluids and cement in to stop the leaking oil. Photo provided by Transocean.
Link
Apparently the NHC is removing the storm surge estimates from the Saffir Simpson scale
very carefully....
;)
I know it isn't the Robert, LA in Tangipahoa...right?
Hurricane forecasters said today they are tweaking the Saffir-Simpson Scale and will no longer tie specific storm surge and flooding impacts to categories.
They announced that pre Seasonally some time back..
Thanks for the reminder.
Surge is relative to the Specific Storm Size and many other values as well.
A Big Cat 3 =4 can have a greater Value in Surge than a Small,Cat-5.
AKA Katrina vs Camille.
Katrina was a Large ,wide,,large circumference Cat=4 at Landfall,where as Camille was a Small Cat=5 with a Tight wind field.
Camille had the smaller surge and did the damage in mostly one area,as Katrina affected 3 States.
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