Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Winds will determine path of oil

by Derek Kevra / WWL-TV Meteorologist

wwltv.com

Posted on May 1, 2010 at 5:35 PM

Meteorologist Derek Kevra explains how the wind paterns will direct the oil and where that oil might go over the short and long term.

at 719 pm may 1 we are at a temp of 73 with a heat index of 80 very warm
april was also the warmest month on record
in a normal year april would have had 10 to 15 nights of below freezing temps this year april had one night of frezzing temps
we also get around 70 mm of rain 15 cm snow in april this past april we only got 36 mm for entire month and no snow at all
so the above normal temps continue with below normal precip as well
so far may looks to be above in the first week as well all the vegetation is in full bloom about 3 weeks earlier than normal
most of the trees here are full of new leaves it looks and feels more like late june than early may

I see Bush is already blamed for this also!Dems control everything by super majority!One thing they can't blame on Bush are the wasted 8 days Obama spent campigning while the biggest enviromental disaster in history happened!All the enviromental people on this blog will not say a word about his indifference!

NEXRAD Radar
North Little Rock, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Storms are starting to explode. I am not liking the wording from the SPC about strong, long track tornados.

oh great, looks like the storms have me in the crosshairs, again. Here comes another night of little to no sleep.

PUT ALL THE IGNORE BUTTONS ON SINCE NO ONE CAN DEBATE THE TRUTH!!"Eight DAYS IN APRIL",WHEN THE ONE DID NOTHING!!

Link


live show

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
21:15 UTC (5:15 PM EDT)
*Seems to me like the AOI in the EPAC is coming ashore, it has definitely lost most of its convection, and most 850MB vorticity has disappeared. Steering currents have pushed the system northward and satellite imagery confirms that. If the system does survive the rough Mexican terrain and does cross into the BOC, it should be monitored for further development.

The system is not going onshore yet but the convection is flaring up due to the high mountains

TORNADO WARNINGS all over ARKANSAS.

Live Stream Web Cam trying to intercept Tornadoes:
Link

Gulf of Mexico - Deepwater Horizon Incident

DATE: May 01, 2010 13:44:31 CST
Update on Administration-wide response efforts in the Gulf Coast

Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

The response to the BP Oil Spill began as an emergency search and rescue mission by the U.S. Coast Guard and other partners on April 20.

Concurrently, command center operations were stood up immediately in the Gulf Coast to begin also addressing the environmental impact of the incident.

The morning after the explosion, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar deployed Deputy Secretary David J. Hayes down to the gulf to assist with coordination and response to the incident.

The Administration immediately began holding regular calls with BP leadership and numerous senior-level meetings have been held between the administration and BP to discuss BP's response effort and federal oversight and support.

The National Response Team (NRT), an organization of 16 federal departments and agencies responsible for coordinating emergency preparedness and response to oil and hazardous substance pollution incidents was quickly activated and a coordinated group of federal partners-including the United States Coast Guard, Departments of Homeland Security, Commerce, Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency-immediately began directing and overseeing BP's response.

The President immediately began actively monitoring the incident and consulting on the response. The President has been in contact with all the governors of the states that may be affected and ordered that the administration use every single available resource at our disposal.

The Department of Defense is fully integrated into the DHS-led team and fully supportive of all response activities. Navy assets have been involved since day #1, and the Coast Guard and Department of Defense continue to work closely together, anticipating requirements, identifying response options, and rapidly providing response support.

The Secretary of Defense has approved a request for two C-130 aircraft with Modular Aerial Spray Systems (MASS), which are currently en route to the affected area. The Coast Guard has requested assistance from the Department of Defense for these aircraft.

These aircraft dispense the same dispersant chemical being used by BP and the federal responders. Each system is capable of covering up to 250 acres per flight with three flights per aircraft per day.

Additionally, in direct support of the Coast Guard under an existing pollution clean-up and salvage operations agreement, the Navy is providing a variety of oil pollution control equipment. The Navy has sent thousands of feet of inflatable oil boom with mooring equipment, several skimming systems, related support gear, and personnel to support oil spill response efforts. Naval Air Station Pensacola is serving as a staging facility for Coast Guard contractor-provided equipment.

To prepare for the possible spreading of the oil slick across the Gulf Coast and in support of the 2nd Unified command Center in Mobile, Ala., Department of Defense is airlifting additional boom materials to Mobile later today. The booms are currently located on four tractor trailers to expedite transportation on the receiving end.

Early on, the President directed responding agencies to not only devote every resource to respond to this incident but to also determine its cause. Earlier this week, Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano and Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar laid out the next steps for the investigation.

The President has also dispatched Secretary Napolitano, Secretary Salazar, EPA Administrator Jackson, Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change Policy Carol Browner and NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco to the Gulf Coast to ensure all is being done to respond to this oil spill.

Secretary Napolitano announced that this incident is a spill of national significance, the Department of Interior has announced that they will be sending SWAT teams to the Gulf to inspect all platforms and rigs, and the EPA is conducting air monitoring activities to gather information on the impact of the controlled burn on air quality.

As part of the designation of the BP Oil Spill as a Spill of National Significance, Secretary Napolitano has announced that U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Thad Allen will serve as the National Incident Commander for the administration's continued, coordinated response—providing additional authority and oversight in leveraging every available resource to respond to the BP oil spill and minimize the associated environmental risks.

As National Incident Commander, Admiral Allen will continue to work closely with Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry, the federal on-scene coordinator, and the Departments of Homeland Security, Defense, Interior and Commerce, the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal departments and agencies as appropriate—as well as BP, the responsible party in the spill—to ensure the efficient continued deployment and coordination of vital response assets, personnel and equipment that were activated immediately after the spill began.

To keep the public informed about the latest, validated environmental air and water sampling results, EPA has launched a dedicated website at www.epa.gov/bpspill, which will also provide information on the broader federal response.

For overall information about the response effort the public can go to www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com

In response to the BP oil spill, the Secretary of Defense is authorizing under title 32 the mobilization of the Louisiana National Guard to help in the ongoing efforts to assist local communities in the cleanup and removal of oil and to protect critical habitats from contamination. As the responsible party in this incident, the government will hold BP accountable for the costs of the deployment.

The Minerals Management Service remains in contact with all oil and gas operators in the sheen area. Two platforms have stopped production and one has been evacuated as a safety measure. Approximately 6.2 million cubic feet of natural gas is shut-in—less than one-tenth of a percent of daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

As the nation’s leading scientific resource for oil spills, NOAA has been on the scene of the BP spill from the start, providing coordinated scientific weather and biological response services to federal, state and local organizations. NOAA spill specialists are advising the U.S. Coast Guard on cleanup options as well as advising all affected federal, state and local partners on sensitive marine resources at risk in this area of the Gulf of Mexico.

Rapid response teams are staged to deploy to shorelines affected by oil to evaluate and determine an appropriate clean-up effort to minimize the impact to the environment.

A volunteer program has been established and a toll-free number—(866)-448-5816—set up for people to call to learn about volunteer opportunities in all areas and what training is required.

By the Numbers to Date:

* Personnel were quickly deployed and nearly 2,000 are currently responding to protect the shoreline and wildlife—hundreds more than yesterday.
* Approximately 75 response vessels have been responding on site, including skimmers, tugs, barges, and recovery vessels to assist in containment and cleanup efforts—in addition to dozens of aircraft, remotely operated vehicles, and multiple mobile offshore drilling units.
* More than 275,000 feet of boom (barrier) have been deployed to contain the spill—an increase of nearly 60,000 feet since yesterday. An additional 316,470 feet is available.
* More than 1 million gallons of an oil-water mix have been recovered—an increase of approximately 150,000 gallons since yesterday.
* Nearly 143,000 gallons of dispersant have been deployed—an increase of more than 3,500 gallons since yesterday. An additional 68,300 gallons are available.
* Six staging areas (Biloxi, Miss., Pensacola, Fla., Venice, La., Pascagoula, Miss. and Theodore, Ala., and Port Sulphur, La.) were set up to protect sensitive shorelines.

patrap, AR has had 7 tornado warnings issued in the last 15mins or so

Somewhere a Tea Kettle Whistles in the Forest..


.."Tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet"....

Thanks Patrap for post 1116. Good information

Quoting roadrage150:
patrap, AR has had 7 tornado warnings issued in the last 15mins or so

Sure is Lit up..

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 650 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 642 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 637 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 636 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 634 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 629 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 622 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 619 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 608 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 602 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

Environmentalist Richard Charter of the Defenders of Wildlife organization said the magnitude of the oil leak could cause damage that would last decades.

"This event is a self-feeding fire," Charter told CNN. "It is so big and expanding so fast that it's pretty much beyond human response that can be effective. ... You're looking at a long-term poisoning of the area. Ultimately, this will have a multi-decade impact.".....


from CNN.

Been looking for some good news myself Ike.
Not much if any iz out there ATM.

Sigh..

Little Rock, AR LIVE coverage of Tornado Outbreak:
Link

THere are booms all over the place here in southern MS. Even some of the casinos put their own out around their buildings.

Even your guy's buddy "Bill Maher" wonders were Obama was for 8 days.Go to Doug Ross journal and see what the one was doing for 8 days!

.."Itsa Crude,crude Summer"..

I heard today that one of th emain issues they are having with stopping the oil leak is the fact that the rig is just sitting on top of the leaks and they can not get to them. All of the thing they have to collect or stop the oil are not working because the rig is in the way.

You can say that again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Rig is well away from the Broken riser piping..

The well is at 5000 ft.

And the relief well Rig DD 3 is in place and the relief well could take 30-90 days to relieve the Well flowing unabated.

If ya wanna root for a reality show,root for the 2 12 hour drill shifts on DD 3 that are going be drilling for the relief Well,..they gonna be busy folks.

And the same danger is always present for another accident, even in this situation too.


So prayers cant hurt none here..

not my pics, but a good view
Quote:
Breton Sound 21. Not to state the obvious, but the oil is light brown. Sorry for the picture quality.

Pine Bluff, AR is about to get hit by a Tornado:
Link

Severe storms.com Tornado footage LIVE:
Link

I don't think we will see black tar like the Exxon spill. This crude should breakdown quick with sunlight.

Bad situation for Pine Bluff.

There is a potential tornado on the ground.

CharlesImages is in Arkansas chasing. He should be between Pine Bluff and Little Rock.

chasertv.com has chaser cams all around threat areas. Not sure if you all know about that site. It is pretty neat.

Quoting Bordonaro:
Pine Bluff, AR is about to get hit by a Tornado:
Link

Severe storms.com Tornado footage LIVE:
Link

He may get the strom coming out of Pine Bluff.

Confirmed tornado near Mount Vernon.

Yea I am watching some live feeds all around pinebluff and that storm looks nasty.

Big wall cloud froma chaser just south of pine bluff...looks like camera pointed north right at that massive cell.

In response to the W.U. poll: "Texas passed a new law that allows police to arrest people who don't obey mandatory evacuation orders. The new law gives county judges and mayors the power to authorize use of “reasonable force” to remove people from the area. What do you think of this new law?"

I live in Texas and had stayed during a mandatory evacuation. I know lots of people who chose to stay through a "mandatory evacuation". The police won't be able to change that.

I agree that some people knowingly endanger themselves or their kids... and those people ought to be arrested or forced to stay at a local evacuation shelter. However, evacuation zones are basically designated by county or by map lines. Plenty of perfectly reasoning adults can choose to stay, knowing their own circumstances well enough. Based on their house structure, land topography and elevation of the residence and known hazards such as trees or debris fields... some people make a correct decision to stay.

If a Cat-5 were approaching... then I'm a gone pecan. For anything less, my house is sturdily built and I'm not concerned about storm surge or flooding. There are no trees within falling distance of my house. There is no reason for me to evacuate only to be kept away from my own house for 3-4 weeks.

Basically... you may hear about a dozen or so families that were forcibly evacuated, but for every one of those there were several hundred other families who stayed and weren't forced or threatened into evacuating. The law won't change anything. It merely gives police the right to enforce the evac... not the manpower, vehicles, shelter space, time and patience to do it. The law is almost completely irrelevant.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AR/NRN LA/NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

VALID 020131Z - 020215Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN AREAS AFFECTED

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE SINCE 23-00Z
SUGGESTS STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AR TRACKING NEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD TO BECOME
TORNADIC.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/AREA VWP DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/ERN AR AND WRN TN DURING THE LAST 1-2
HOURS. THIS INCREASE IS LOCATED ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDED FROM E TX NEWD TO AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AT TXK AND THEN NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL TO NERN AR. THE GREATEST
INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES EXTENDED FROM NRN LA INTO
CENTRAL-NERN AR AND EWD INTO WRN TN WITH VALUES AOA 300 M2/S2. THIS
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING
SSWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MID SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE
RETURN WITH LOW LCLS SUPPORTING A GREATER TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 05/02/2010