Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting AussieStorm:

But this isn't a good omen for the upcoming season there.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

Heat reminiscent of 2005
Brett Dutschke, Thursday April 22,

This unseasonable heat in South Australia, Victoria, ACT and New South Wales may remind residents of 2005 when 30-degree warmth lasted until early May.

For Melburnians it's 48 years since it's been as warm this late in the season, exceeding 30 degrees in the city. For Adelaideans it's been five years, also exceeding 30.

It's been at least 10 years since Orbost got as warm as 28 degrees this late in autumn.

It's the warmest day in five years this late in autumn for many, including:

- Penrith which reached 29.2 degrees today
- Canberra, 25.4
- Griffith, 29.2
- Geelong, 29.4
- Hamilton, 26.0
- Loxton, 30.7
- Kingscote, 28.2
- Wudinna 31.7
- Ceduna 33.6

For some it will be even warmer tomorrow as northwesterly winds freshen just ahead of a cooler change.

Even with a warmer day tomorrow, many will not heat up more than it did in late April or early May in 2005, which was record-breaking.



%uFFFD Weatherzone 2010

Wow, here in the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area, the official warmest temp so far this spring was 28C/82F. By now we usually would have had 2-3 days above 32C/90F by now.

Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, but I'm not sure what to think of it, because by this time the CFS is way out in no-man's land with the summer forecast for the CONUS.

ok thanks

Here we go, Mesoscale discussion looks for a Tornado Watch to be issued in CO/KS:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221752Z - 221845Z

...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO
INTO WRN KS...

BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO WARM RAPIDLY WITHIN CLOUD-FREE
UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN CO. THOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE
REACHED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER SRN CO. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH CU FIELD BEGINNING TO EXPAND/DEEPEN ALONG
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NW OF TAD...EWD TO NEAR LAA.
IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO
SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LOW CLOUD BASES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2010

Current pic from Iceland Volcano

I was hearing about a second volcano that could possibly erupt soon, whats the information coming out about that one?

Quoting Bordonaro:
SPC Upgraded Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for tomorrow, Fr April 23, 2010:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR AND NRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF AR AND NRN LA...
...THE START OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

Link below to entire update:
Link

Wow, Bordo,
Some pretty aggressive wording from the SPC...

Flint Hills Centered Floater



Ranbow


WV

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I was hearing about a second volcano that could possibly erupt soon, whats the information coming out about that one?

There is no direct scientific link, but the last three times E erupted, Katla soon followed.

Quoting PcolaDan:
from CNN

CNN) -- An oil rig that has been burning in the Gulf of Mexico for more than a day has sunk, the U.S. Coast Guard said Thursday.

Lt. Cmdr. Cheri Ben-Iesau of the Coast Guard announced this latest development as the search continued for 11 workers who have been missing since an explosion on the rig Tuesday night off the Louisiana coast.

Crude oil was leaking from the rig at the rate of about 8,000 barrels per day, Coast Guard Petty Officer Ashley Butler said. The Coast Guard also is preparing for possible leaks of up to 700,000 gallons of diesel fuel but can do little to protect the environment until the fire is out, Butler said.

Wow, I suggest no one to go to the beach if you live along the coast of the GOM.

Quoting beell:


Wow, Bordo,
Some pretty aggressive wording from the SPC...

I really have bitten my tongue on this subject, mainly because I am not a meteorologist. I am just an avid weather watcher for 40 years.

I am afraid we will see up to 50 total tornadoes between today and late Saturday. I hope I am wrong.

and what I am looking at Pat?

Some were saying that Katla could erupt soon, if so what impact are we looking at on air travel?

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 13U
3:00 AM WST April 23 2010
======================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1003 hPa) located at 13.2S 115.1E or 1070 km east southeast of Christmas Island and 860 km north northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.1S 114.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 14.9S 113.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.3S 110.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.2S 108.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Addition Information
=====================
Deep convection has consolidated near the low level circulation centre. DT in the 2.0 to 2.5 range. Development trend assessed as D therefore MET=2.5, PAT=2.5, and hence FT/CI=2.5.

The low remains in an area of low vertical wind shear, very high ocean heat content [SST>30C] and upper-level poleward outflow associated with a large amplitude mid-latitude trough to the southwest; all features conducive for further development. These environmental conditions are expected to continue in the next 36 to 48 hours so development is forecast although the rate remains somewhat uncertain and models do not favour rapid intensification. It is possible that the circulation may be smaller than normal, supported by the current extent of convection. This may result in greater fluctuations in intensity than is typical.

During Saturday the shear should increase as the system moves southwestwards towards the near stationary upper trough. By Sunday the system will be under strong northwesterly shear and will be over lower SSTs and should be steadily weakening. By Monday the system should be weak and beginning to be steered by lower level winds out towards the west as deep convection is sheared away.

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
and what I am looking at Pat?

Well,Oklahoma,Colorado,Texas,Mizzouri and the WW area in the Midwest.


Flint Hill Floater

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 74
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO
PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
AKRON COLORADO TO 30 MILES EAST OF ELKHART KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED VICINITY WARM FRONT
LIFTING SLOWLY NWD THRU SWRN KS INTO ERN CO. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SERN CO SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING A THREAT OF TORNADO'S AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025.


...HALES

Come on, Pat, everyone knows its Mizzoura.

Sheesh. ;)

24S Rainbow Image

Off topic on the volcano issues but I saw a documentary last night on TV with regard to Iceland and the long history of volcanic activity......Many of the scientists were stating that some of the worst eruptions have happened after glacial warming/retreat which basically lifts the heavy ice "pressure" cap off the volcano & fissure areas.....Makes you wonder what can happen over there in the future if glacial retreat due to GW continues in the future....(Do not know if the current eruption was in one these regions of glacial retreat)...

NEXRAD Radar
Topeka-Alma, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Quoting Seastep:


There is no direct scientific link, but the last three times E erupted, Katla soon followed.

Katla would make E look like a baby. I'm not sure if it was Katla or Hektla that was the cause of the mini Ice Age

NWS Pueblo, CO radar

NEXRAD Radar
Dodge City, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Quoting VAstorms:


Katla would make E look like a baby. I'm not sure if it was Katla or Hektla that was the cause of the mini Ice Age

The 1815 eruption of Tambora in Indonesia blanketed the atmosphere with ash; the following year, 1816, came to be known as the Year Without a Summer, when frost and snow were reported in June and July in both New England and Northern Europe. Other volcanoes that erupted during the era and may have contributed to the cooling include Billy Mitchell (ca. 1580 � 20 ), Mount Parker (1641), Long Island (Papua New Guinea) (ca. 1660), and Huaynaputina (1600).

Link

Quoting Jeff9641:


You beat me to it!LOL I writing about that cell when you posted this map.

After a very quiet Spring Severe Weather season thus far, things are going to be "wild" from now until at least Sunday.

-Huffington Post

Katla Volcano: Threat Of New, Larger Icelandic Eruption Looms

(Written on April 21, 2010)

Link

Quoting Jeff9641:


You beat me to it!LOL I writing about that cell when you posted this map.

After a very quiet Spring Severe Weather season thus far, things are going to be "wild" from now until at least Sunday.

Nice pics DRM. Kudos to the photographers. I enjoy the photos on this site too. Have taken a stab at posting pics myself. But now my camera won't work so just back to viewing. :) And my area's under a severe weather watch for today and tomorrow. Hopefully nothing photo worthy happens.

...on a sad note.

Burning oil rig sinks into Gulf of Mexico, Coast Guard says
By The Times-Picayune
April 22, 2010, 1:30PM


oil-rig-explosion-smoke.JPGMichael DeMocker / The Times-PicayuneA cloud of smoke rising above the Gulf of Mexico could be seen for more than 25 miles Wednesday as fireboats try to extinguish the blaze on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig south of Venice.


The burning oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico south of Venice has sunk, the U.S. Coast Guard said.

The Deepwater Horizon exploded and caught fire on Tuesday. The 11 workers who were missing after the blast are still unaccounted for today, but a search-and-rescue mission is continuing.

However, at least one relative of the missing workers said family members have been told it's unlikely anyone survived the blast, which occurred around 10 p.m. Tuesday.

The rig was spilling 13,000 gallons an hour yesterday, but virtually all of it was burning off. Now that the rig has sunk and the fire is out, crews are trying to contain the oil, which may still be spilling into the Gulf.

There were 126 workers on the rig at the time of the accident. Besides the 11 missing workers, 98 were safely brought to shore; the rest had to be treated for injuries.

Earlier today, an attorney said one of the life capsules that crews use to escape rigs was found and was being towed to Port Fourchon. A Coast Guard spokesman could not immediately confirm whether the capsule had been found.

The attorney, Ronnie Penton, declined to say whether anyone was inside the damaged capsule.

Boats had been spraying water on the burning rig since the explosion and fire but were making little headway in extinguishing the blaze.

The fire was making it impossible for a remotely operated vehicle to get to the rig to try to stop the flow of oil.

U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., has called for an investigation into the accident.

This story is based on reporting by Chris Kirkham and Paul Rioux.

Quoting Jeff9641:


We are going to make up a lot of ground in the tornado dept. the next several days. I hope people are ready because some of these will unfortunatly be deadly.

Lets hope its during the day time, because almost nobody is ready at night. Plus night time storms are scary as hell.

Quoting Jeff9641:


We are going to make up a lot of ground in the tornado dept. the next several days. I hope people are ready because some of these will unfortunatly be deadly.

Hopefully local news stations from CO-FL are keeping the public informed about the upcoming Severe Weather Outbreak to come.

The Weather Channel has been all over this since Monday and the SPC has been watching this closely, issuing Severe weather watches sooner than they have over the last few weeks.

Quoting VAstorms:


Katla would make E look like a baby. I'm not sure if it was Katla or Hektla that was the cause of the mini Ice Age

Neither, that was Laki. Katla has historically erupted after E has, but with nowhere near the consequences of Laki. If Katla were to blow now it would have a greater effect than the past because of the ash plume it could send up, thus affecting air travel again. If Laki were to blow, it could not only affect air travel, but possibly the climate too. At this time both are quiet.

What are the chances this severe weather reaches into Florida? I haven`t seen any predicitons of this but it seems to be growing as far as length of days it will last which I would guess up the chances Florida is threatened by it.

Wow.

Tornado warned area



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
115 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

COC011-061-222015-
/O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100422T2015Z/
BENT CO-KIOWA CO-
115 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA AND
NORTHERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 112 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR...OR 24 MILES EAST OF
LA JUNTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR...HASTY...NEEGRONDA RESERVOIR...FORT LYON AND
CADDOA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Saturday Night is the night I'm concerned about as the worst of this tornado outbreak won't be in the plains but the mid south (I.E TN, AL, GA, ARK, MISS, & KY.). It is these states that could get dozens of tornadoes. The NWS of Memphis has done a great job at forecasting this event as ALEX1991HURRICANE mentioned a couple of days ago.

Link below to NWS Memphis, TX Special Weather Statement issued at 4:56AM today CDT:
Link

New Mescscale Discussion concerning a possible Tornado Watch for the NE TX Panhandle:

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221901Z - 222000Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EVIDENT ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...COINCIDENT WITH A SFC DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR A
DUMAS-WILDORADO-SUDAN LINE AS OF 19Z. MOIST/UNSTABLE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL TX/OK PANHANDLES...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. 18Z KAMA RAOB INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
HR. DISCRETE CELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN THE
MOIST SECTOR WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD
TOWARDS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASED DRYLINE CONVERGENCE.

INITIAL THREAT WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL DUE
TO MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS. AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE.

..ROGERS.. 04/22/2010

4 Tornado reports in CO so far.

I am in e central Mississippi and I expect to get battered. I agree, this has all the hallmarks of a major multi-day outbreak, and I do hope that the relatively calm season has not made people become complacent. For my part I also hope that any tornadoes in the South happen Saturday morning rather than Friday night, both from the perspective of safety and the fact that I am highly inclined to make this event my first chase and am not comfortable doing that at night with the likelihood of HP supercells.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow.

Wow indeed. The whole Caribbean and GOM will be in 90F+

Quoting hurricane23:


No probs...Yea that's possible tough forecast.

Modeling certainly supports neutral/cool conditions but keep in mind modeling is also suspect this time of year.

It was dead on last year, and has been dead on so far this year.