Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S., warmest on record in Canada
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:26 PM GMT en Marzo 12, 2010 +5
The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.


Figure 1. Winter temperatures for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold February in the U.S.
February temperatures were 2.2°F below average across the contiguous U.S., making it the 29th coldest February in the 115-year record. For the second month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. Florida had its 4th coldest February on record. Seven other states had February temperatures between 5th and 8th coldest on record: Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Maine had its 3rd warmest February, New Hampshire its 5th, and Washington its 6th. Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in February.

Warmest and driest winter on record in Canada
Canada had its warmest winter on record, 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average, according to Environment Canada. The previous record was 3.9°C above average, set in 2005-2006. Canada also experienced its driest winter on record this year, with precipitation 22.0% below normal. The previous driest winter was 1977-1978 (20.1% below normal). Canadian weather records go back 63 years, to 1948. David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, warned of potential "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this summer due to the warm, dry winter. Phillips blamed the warm winter weather on El Niño and the severe loss of arctic sea ice last fall. The winter season in Canada has warmed, on average, by 2.5°C (4.5°F) over the past 63 years.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average in Canada for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Brazilian tropical/subtropical storm named "Anita"
The South Atlantic tropical/subtropical storm we've been tracking this week has moved over colder waters and has now transitioned to a regular extratropical storm. Earlier this week, the storm became just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic. According to a statement put out by MetSul Meteorologia, a Brazilian weather company, this storm is now named "Tropical Storm Anita:"

The regional weather centers and the private weather enterprises of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, southernmost Brazilian states, in a joint decision, named Anita the rare tropical storm of March 9th and 10th in the coastal areas of the region. The name was chosen considering a historic figure of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, both states affected by the tropical cyclone. Anita Garibaldi (1821-1849) was a heroine of the Farroupilha Revolution (1835-1845), one of the most important events in the Brazilian history that took place in the Southern part of the country. Anita was used in the past to designate tropical cyclones in other basins: North Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Next week, we need to keep an eye on northeastern Australia, where Tropical Cyclone 20 may pay a visit. The storm is under light shear and warm waters, and is forecast to increase to Category 4 strength by Monday. Also of concern is Tropical Cyclone 19, which is expected to hit Fiji as a Category 2 storm early next week.

First tornado death of the year for the U.S
A tornado that hit Cleburne, Arkansas on Wednesday caused three serious injuries and the tornado season's first fatality, a 79-year old man sheltering in his single story wood-frame home. Yesterday, a suspected tornado ripped through Haines City, Florida destroying four condos and damaging fifteen others. One person was injured. Two other tornadoes caused minor damage in central Florida. The severe weather outbreak continues today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather over portions of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. After today, the severe weather action should diminish for at least five days over the U.S. The major U.S. weather story this weekend will be flooding in the Mid-Atlantic, where heavy rains of up to four inches are expected. Soils are already saturated and the heavy snows from this winter's major snowstorms will also melt, likely creating moderate flooding problems over much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Links to follow:
Interactive tornado map
Severe weather page


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters
Tornado, Saline County, AR (waltdsgirl)
Tornado, Saline County, AR
deluge of rain... (happytobealive)
We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
deluge of rain...
wind damage (Openmike)
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.
wind damage
Categories: Climate Summaries
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401. AussieStorm 4:09 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey aussie how ya doing
how ya make out with computer
i was told ya lost
all your links and stuff
if ya like i can make up a list for ya and email it to ya

I've actually been able to recover most of my links and other stuff, You can send me an email with your links, I don't know if I have got them all.
Cheers
Aussie
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795
402. Hurricanes101 4:10 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
ah ok thanks
Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930
403. Levi32 4:25 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
What a storm.



She doesn't look as good as she did 4-6 hours ago. That's probably mostly due to the diurnal minimum coming up in a few hours.
Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612
404. Hurricanes101 4:27 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting Levi32:


She doesn't look as good as she did 4-6 hours ago. That's probably mostly due to the diurnal minimum coming up in a few hours.


Have we determined the gender of Ului yet? lol
Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930
405. Levi32 4:34 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Have we determined the gender of Ului yet? lol


Lol....logically it's a she since Tomas is male and genders are supposed to alternate with every name down the list.
Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612
406. all4hurricanes 4:51 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
I think Laurence was only a cat 5 on the Australian scale still an impressive storm but I don't think it would have been considered a cat 5 if it were in the Atlantic.
Ului is magnificent, we should be paying attention to Thomas though that's the one that will hit Fiji in a day
Member Since: Marzo 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2235
407. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:13 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    

140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 161.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, ABRF, AND
KNES INDICATE TC 20P CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A HIGHER THAN NORMAL
RATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED 10-NM DIAMETER EYE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
THAT IS ENHANCING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 20P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO ENJOY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72 AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO HINDER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, CAUSING THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND IN THE FORECAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEADING TO A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 72. TC ULUI IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
BUILDS AND STEERS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332
408. Levi32 5:35 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Based on IR imagery it is clear that Ului's core is no longer perfectly symetric, but is rather heavily weighted towards the west side of the eye. Ului is not as strong as she was 6 hours ago, and I think this is due to her outflow now being less than perfect. After exploding today, Ului's outflow has expanded rapidly in all directions, without hindrance, but now her equatorial outflow channel to the northeast has encountered a problem. It is being interfered with by Tomas's equatorward outflow, resulting in a noticable disturbance in the otherwise perfect upper-level structure of Ului. There are also a couple of weak upper lows between the two cyclones, which are contributing to disrupting Ului's outflow channel. This problem may lessen as Ului and Tomas move farther away from each other over the next couple days.



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409. JRRP 5:48 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
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410. taco2me61 6:03 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Good Evening Everyone,
just checking in and see whats going on....
The Weather here in Metairie LA has been Beautiful and can't wait for tomorrow's St Patty Day Parade....

Taco :0)
Member Since: Julio 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2794
411. rocketboy105 6:28 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Yep,...that sure looks like a "pin-hole" eye to me :-)) I took a stab at graphically measureing it,...15-17 miles in diameter,...anyone know what it actually is. Sure is a pretty storm.
412. wunderkidcayman 8:33 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
GOOD MORNING ANYONE HERE
Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997
413. stormwatcherCI 11:44 AM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
GOOD MORNING ANYONE HERE
Good morning. Are you getting prepared for the 2010 season ?
Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8063
414. Tropicsweatherpr 1:12 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
GOOD MORNING ANYONE HERE


I think many didnt move their clocks ahead one hour last night.
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415. Ameister12 1:28 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Good morning!
Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3628
416. Ameister12 1:30 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting JRRP:

Looks like a Fujiwhare effect.
Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3628
417. severstorm 1:40 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Good Morning, 6.6 earthquake in Japan last night. No reports of damage.
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418. AussieStorm 1:42 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting JRRP:


Fiji, Solomon Islands brace for cyclones
Pacific correspondent Campbell Cooney, Sunday March 14, 2010

Fiji and the Solomon Islands are bracing for gale-force winds, heavy rain and storm surges as tropical cyclones bear down on both countries.

Tropical Cyclone Tomas is expected to make landfall in northern Fiji tomorrow morning and disaster management officials there have spent the past few days preparing.

In the Solomon Islands, Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected over the islands of Rennell and Bellona tonight.

Solomons Disaster Management Office spokesman Julian Makaa says the 5,000 people who live on those islands are expecting the worst.

"We've just been advising people to be prepared and sort themselves out," he said.

"We have been advising people to stock things up, prepare for the impact. That means saving water, food, basic medicines."

Ului is generating winds of more than 200 kilometres per hour.

Bureau of Meteorology spokesman Brett Harrison says Ului was upgraded overnight from a category three to a category five storm.

"It does mean that wind speeds are significantly increased, so any areas that will be in the path of the cyclone will receive significant damage," he said.

"At this stage it's moving towards the south of the Solomon Islands."

- ABC
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795
419. AussieStorm 1:44 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting severstorm:
Good Morning, 6.6 earthquake in Japan last night. No reports of damage.

Yet
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795
420. AussieStorm 1:44 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Tropical Cyclone Ului on the horizon
Tim Shu, Sunday March 14, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Ului is currently hanging off the coast of New Guinea, tracking slowly towards the QLD coast. Ului looks to be the last Cyclone of the season, and it could potentially be a big one.

Cyclones once formed, will increase in strength as long as they are over warm waters. If you remember back two months, Ex-TC Olga made its way across the QLD peninsula into the Gulf of Carpentaria where abnormally high sea surface temperatures at the time allowed her to re-intensify.

Currently, Cyclone Ului is sitting on a region in the Pacific Ocean, and should it decide to make landfall on the QLD coast, it has the potential to reach Category five. But the movement of Cyclones is very difficult to predict, currently our computer models indicate that it will infact come close to the QLD coast and then swing off in the direction of New Zealand.

- Weatherzone
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795
421. AussieStorm 1:46 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
An ap-PAUL-ling lack of cyclones
Sam Terry, Friday March 12, 2010

Tropical cyclones seem to have been giving Australia a wide berth of late, with none appearing since late January. But before the season ends, Australia could see just one more sneak in.

On average 13 cyclones develop in Australian waters each year. Over the 2008-09 season seven cyclones formed. In contrast this season we've only had four: Laurence, Magda, Neville and Olga.

Over the last week or so the monsoon system that usually sits over northern Australia at this time of year (often helping to generate cyclones) has faded out.

However, a monsoon trough has been sitting to the northeast over Vanuata and the Solomon Islands, funnelling in tropical moisture over far northern QLD, leading to showers and thunderstorms.

Just lately, computer model forecasts have been indicating that a low will intensify in this region and perhaps head into the Coral Sea by Tuesday the 16th of March. This cyclone, if it ever happens, will be called Tropical Cyclone Paul.

- Weatherzone
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422. severstorm 1:46 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yet

Member Since: Noviembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 917
423. severstorm 1:47 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting severstorm:


I,m on the same thinking as you. How are you, lets see its your evening.
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424. AussieStorm 1:56 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    




















Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795
425. Stormchaser2007 1:56 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
EWRC?

Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15296
426. AussieStorm 1:58 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting severstorm:

I,m on the same thinking as you. How are you, lets see its your evening.

It's almost 1am Monday morning here, Just watching some soccer and having a cuppa tea.
How are you going? Where about are you from?
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795
427. Stormchaser2007 2:00 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Very ragged now.

RAW T down to 4.8

Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15296
428. wunderkidcayman 2:01 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Are you getting prepared for the 2010 season ?


ME I'M ALLWAY PREPARED
CAN'T WAIT FOR OUR FIRST TROPICAL WAVE BY THE WAY WHEN WILL WE LIKELY GET OUR FIRST WAVE
Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997
429. AussieStorm 2:02 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
EWRC?





By the looks of it, i would say yes, give it maybe a few more hours and we shall see.
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795
430. severstorm 2:02 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's almost 1am Monday morning here, Just watching some soccer and having a cuppa tea.
How are you going? Where about are you from?

I am doing fine and drinking a cup a java. Its 10:00 am here. I'm in Zephyrhills Florida. Its in west central fl.40 miles ne of Tampa.
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431. taco2me61 2:05 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Good Morning All
&
Good Evening Aussie






Taco :0)
Member Since: Julio 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2794
432. msgambler 2:06 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Evening/Morning Aussie.... Looks like thing are starting to show sighns of a very interesting season this year. I don't remember seeing this much activity, ie:earthquakes,cyclones,March tornadoes, in a very long time. Mother Nature sounds angry
Member Since: Febrero 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120
433. AussieStorm 2:07 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting msgambler:
Evening/Morning Aussie.... Looks like thing are starting to show sighns of a very interesting season this year. I don't remember seeing this much activity, ie:earthquakes,cyclones,March tornadoes, in a very long time. Mother Nature sounds angry

Morning,
Yeah, what did you do to Miss Mother Nature????
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795
434. msgambler 2:09 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Morning Wunderkid, Stormchaser, taco, and all
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435. AussieStorm 2:09 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting taco2me61:
Good Morning All
&
Good Evening Aussie






Taco :0)

Mornin'
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13795
436. taco2me61 2:11 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Good morning Msgambler

We are having some kind of Beautiful
Weather here in Metairie LA, how about were you are?

Taco :0)
Member Since: Julio 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2794
437. msgambler 2:11 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Why you always blamin' me? I'd give her a backrub if I knew it would help. I live on the Alabama Coast and I don't have a good feeling about this season
Member Since: Febrero 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120
438. severstorm 2:12 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting AussieStorm:

Morning,
Yeah, what did you do to Miss Mother Nature????

Here ya go, Has mother nature ever been this mad with all these different events all at the same time? Interesting
Member Since: Noviembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 917
439. msgambler 2:13 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting taco2me61:
Good morning Msgambler

We are having some kind of Beautiful
Weather here in Metairie LA, how about were you are?

Taco :0)
It's a liitle chilly here, like there I'm sure, but a beautiful day so far.
Member Since: Febrero 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120
440. Skyepony (Mod) 2:21 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
As I expected the NE got smacked..

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) - Utility crews pushed through fallen trees and windblown debris to reach downed power lines Sunday, working to restore electricity to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses as strong winds and heavy rain that wreaked havoc in parts of the Northeast pushed on into New England.

The storm, which battered parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut on Saturday with gusts of up to 70 mph, struck about two weeks after heavy snow and hurricane-force winds left more than a million customers in the Northeast in the dark. More than a half-million customers in the region lost electricity at the peak of Saturday's storm, and more than 485,000 were waiting for power to be restored Sunday morning.
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441. taco2me61 2:22 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting msgambler:
Why you always blamin' me? I'd give her a backrub if I knew it would help. I live on the Alabama Coast and I don't have a good feeling about this season

Hey Aussie,
I would make Love to her if it would help.....
It sure looks like thats what she needs anyway....

LOL

Msgambler What part of southern AL do you Live?
I live in Mobile myself.... :0)

Taco :0)
Member Since: Julio 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2794
442. Tropicsweatherpr 2:23 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
CFS model goes to Neutral ENSO by late May/early June timeframe.

Member Since: Abril 29, 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8794
443. msgambler 2:27 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting taco2me61:

Hey Aussie,
I would make Love to her if it would help.....
It sure looks like thats what she needs anyway....

LOL

Msgambler What part of southern AL do you Live?
I live in Mobile myself.... :0)

Taco :0)
Thought you lived in Metairie, LA........ We live near Dauphin Island
Member Since: Febrero 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1120
444. doabarrelroll 2:27 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
CFS model goes to Neutral ENSO by late May/early June timeframe.



Aweful time for that to happen


doabar =0)
Member Since: Noviembre 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 486
445. taco2me61 2:31 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting msgambler:
Thought you lived in Metairie, LA........ We live near Dauphin Island


No I'm here for the St Paddy's Day Parade.... LOL
This is a 3hr Parade and over 100 floats

as for me I Live in West Mobile....
Member Since: Julio 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2794
446. Stormchaser2007 2:31 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting msgambler:
Morning Wunderkid, Stormchaser, taco, and all


Morning
Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15296
447. msgambler 2:32 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Ahhh, I see. I have some friends that took a bus ove there this morning
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448. wunderkidcayman 2:33 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting msgambler:
Morning Wunderkid, Stormchaser, taco, and all


MORNING
Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997
449. doabarrelroll 2:35 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting msgambler:
Morning Wunderkid, Stormchaser, taco, and all


Good Morning!!!


DOABAR :0)
Member Since: Noviembre 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 486
450. taco2me61 2:35 PM GMT en Marzo 14, 2010    
Quoting msgambler:
Ahhh, I see. I have some friends that took a bus ove there this morning


Yes I will be with about 3000 from Mobile that come for the parade....

Taco :0)
Member Since: Julio 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2794

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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