We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.
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Predicting shear now to any individual seasons outcome isnt within the fold of modeling as far as I know.
Well shear is already lower than normal across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and neutral to weak La Nina conditions are expected during most of the hurricane season. This generally favors a weaker subtropical jet displaced further to the north, which means less strong westerlies shearing storms and more weak equatorial ridging that is favorable for storm formation. It is hard to say for certain exactly how shear will turn out in any given year, but the general pattern so far supports lower-than-normal wind shear in the deep tropics.
Another bit of Trivia before I sign off. The part of Rhett Butler in "Gone with the Wind" was written with Groucho Marx in mind for the part. Author Mitchell was very disappointed when he wasn'st chosen.
Numbers are fun and something some must have to quantify a season..
Me,..well,if ya cant tell me where and when,..its all MOOT.
Preparation is the Only sure bet to have a edge on the unpredictable Atlantic Hurricane Season.
And the one you mention could have someone 's Zip this year
That's what I like about it. The fight is still on though, different developers wanting to do various things, us old timers who remembers the old affordable cinder block beach houses, those trying to build it up as expensive 2500" sq ft beach houses... We have spent the last 30 years trying to decide what kind of tourist traffic we want to cater to. :)
Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn. Now guess the secret word. :)
Things will start slowly,ramp up Late July and from Mid Aug-Early October we will have the Meat of the Large CV storms to contend with.
The pattern changes some from year to year,as to Numbers,but within it..every year,is the default setting as to whats expected.
Other countries (notably China) are quietly going about building the infrastructure needed to be leaders in the new, clean energy economy.
"What is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it"? (question of my 11 year old daughter to a panel of "experts" at a major university at a Focus the Nation event, January 31, 2008).
Only the IPCC representative had a credible answer (he takes the bus to work and only flies twice a year for his work).
The rest were platinum frequent fliers who admitted they are doing nothing.
So what is everybody doing?
Action: Quote | Ignore User
distilling my own whiskey...please don't tell the revenuers...
I don't know if you saw "the Cross" on top of a sane dune while you were here. That is symbolic of the first mass after Don Tristan DeLuna landed. This dune was fenced off "to protect the dunes", a big thing in the 70's. Shortly thereafter dunes next to it were bulldozed for construction. That was the beginning of the long fight over what direction the beach would head. It all started with hypocrisy and good old boy politics. I think we are fortunate that there have been those who have fought so hard to keep our beach accessible. The Cross, has kind of always been a symbol of the beginning of it all.
something like this?
Do you ever eat peanut and jelly or bologna sandwiches?
..Ask presslord,never
..why we shared a Meal Tuesday next to St. Louis Cathedral in New Orleans,..I had the Shrimp Creole and Press had,..Jambalaya I think
We ate here
Menu,
If you had let me know you were coming, you could have had the best dadgummed mullet ever. (Yes we eat it here, and love it. A benefit of sand on the bottom of our waters and not mud.)
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
12:00 PM FST March 15 2010
======================================
For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS.
For Fiji and Rotuma
====================
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, LAKEBA, VANUA BALAVU, MOALA,MATUKU,TOTOYA, CICIA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas (930 hPa) located at 15.5S 179.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. Position GOOD based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar/visible imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center
Cyclone has intensified over the last 12 hours. Cyclone lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered southerly by the deep layer mean flow.
Dvorak analysis based on DT of 5.5
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS
Consensus of the global models agree on southerly track and intensification, but the cyclone is expected to move into a increasingly sheared environment and weaken south of 20S.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.7S 179.4W - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 18.0S 179.5W - 105 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 22.5S 177.8W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 8:30 AM UTC...
150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 159.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH A 25 NM EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 130 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 20P HAS SUSTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT THAT
ENHANCING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 20P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
IN AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU
24. TC ULUI WILL THEN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR)WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS. BY TAU 72, THE
STR WILL BUILD BACK IN AND TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WILL PREVAIL WITH THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE
BUT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THROUGH
TAU 36. MODEL SPREAD THEN INCREASES WITH THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE
TURN SOUTHWARD. GFDN, GFS, AND NOGAPS FAVOR AN EARLIER AND SHARPER
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST PRESUMABLY DUE TO A STRONGER NER. THIS FORECAST
IS TO THE WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A LESS SHARP POLEWARD
PROGRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P
(TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Plugging things back in...had an electrical distraction-free weekend with the family.
Saturday morning I went around unplugging everything and collecting batteries from various devices. No TV, no internet, no computer, no Nintendo, no Pod, no cell phones. Power wires and batteries in a sack in the closet...bored? Go outside, or something. Was a very fun and productive weekend with the family. I think we are going to do that at least once a month...possibly more often in the future.
Unplugged is quite nice, sometimes.
St Augustine is the oldest continuous city. Was established a few years later by the Spanish. Pensacola was the first attempt in 1559, but abandoned because of the hurricane. St Augustine was deemed more politically and militarily necessary when Spain decided to try again in the early 1560s. Ponce de Leon was actually a few years earlier than either settlement, the first to explore Florida.
Ohhh, the tomato-y creole-style jambalaya there is great! I usually prefer the other style, myself...unless I am there.
When the 5-year-old knows the nuances of the DVR better than he knows (generally) how to play soccer...well, there's a sign. Unplug.
* From correspondents in Auckland
* From: AAP
* March 15, 2010 11:39AM
A TROPICAL cyclone heading for Fiji may be the worst cyclone to ever strike the South Pacific nation.
Fiji Meteorological Service senior forecaster, Matt Boterhoven, said Cyclone Tomas had intensified overnight and was now a category four storm.
Mr Boterhoven said the northern island of Vanua Levu was most at risk, with winds likely to peak at over 200km/h in the next 24 hours.
"There's going to be a whole lot of flooding," he said late this morning.
"(It's a) very destructive hurricane force area so they'll be getting quiet a battering over the next 12 hours."
According to local media reports, Cyclone Tomas claimed its first victim yesterday, when 31-year-old Fijian woman was killed trying to save her family from being washed away in huge waves that crashed into the coast of Vanua Levu.
A spokeswoman for Fiji Police, Ema Mua, said the nation was undertaking last minute preparations for a "disastrous" thrashing.
"We were looking at the difference between the forces of all the cyclones that have happened in Fiji," said Mua, as her colleagues hammered boards to windows.
"It's moving very, very slowly but at the same time it's picking up a lot, a lot, of force.
"That is why the categories have been proceeding.
"If it doesn't lessen down then it could be the worst to ever hit the country."
Australian tourist, Clare Melvin, said she was evacuated from her accommodation at Plantation Island yesterday afternoon.
"They basically said to us, 'If you've got kids, you should go'," Ms Melvin said.
She had been holidaying in Fiji with her husband and two small children for a week.
"Everybody just jumped on this big boat and came back (to the mainland) and they just threw our luggage on the ground and we just all had to scramble for it," she said.
"It was ridiculous."
She said women were crying in the hotel lobby and everyone was "pretty scared".
"All the Fijians are kind of freaking out themselves, you can tell, cause there's no animals around," the Sydneysider said.
"It's unusually still. It's really weird.
"It's just overcast and kind of dark, but yesterday afternoon the sky was a really strange colour, it was like dark orange and black."
Tourism Fiji said Air New Zealand and V-Australia had cancelled all Fiji services until further notice and Air Pacific said it would postpone flights to Fiji ex-Auckland, Brisbane and Sydney until tomorrow.
Cyclone Ului is moving west while Cyclone Tomas threatens Fiji
INCOMING: This morning, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded a halo CME emerging from the vicinity of sunspot 1054: movie. The cloud appears to be heading toward Earth and it could spark geomagnetic storms when it arrives on or about March 17th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
Link
I grew up in Pensacola and remember the quadricentennial celebration in 1959. Last year we had a 450 year celebration and had a visit from King Juan Carlos and Queen Sophia from Spain. As a side note, I don't believe we got our name from any "Panzacola" Indians, but that's a whole other dissertation.
The gulf doesn't really matter in terms of shear this time of year, as the subtropical jet regularly flows directly above it during the winter. Lower-than-normal shear values in the Caribbean and the deep tropical Atlantic are what bring attention at this time of the year.
Edit: if you were talking about the CFS forecast instead of the current conditions, then disregard this comment lol.
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