We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.
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Crazy
DOABAR :0)
Taht is Bueaftiul
DOABAR :0)
(anything below -0.5 is la nina)
Looking at the actual conditions shows I think more uncertainty in the forecast than the models let on to.. A force of extremes seems to be building.. Orange is a hot anomily, blue a cold anomily, the top is the surface of the Pacific along the equator, bottom the deep of the ocean, the right side is east end & left the west end. A new hotspot is rebuilding that has yet to surface while the cold is building in from the west.
That was like a little Sunday morning Satellite treat :)
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F)
0:00 AM FST March 15 2010
======================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului (930 hPa) located at 12.7S 161.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots. Position FAIR based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar/visible imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-cirlce
150 NM from the center elsewhere
Overall organization remains good. Dry air entrainment and shear taking their toll. Shear around 15 knots. Upper outflow good in all sectors. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclone continues to be steered west by an east to southeast deep mean layer.
Dvorak analysis based on OW EYE and B surround, yielding DT 6.0
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.5/D1.0/24HRS
Global models agree on a westerly track
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.8S 159.0E - 110 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS: 13.0S 157.7E - 110 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS: 13.8S 156.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
FINAL FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES..
The Next Advisory On TC ULUI Will Be Issued By Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane At Around 19:00 PM UTC...
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
0:00 AM FST March 15 2010
======================================
For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS.
For Fiji and Rotuma
====================
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA ISLAND.
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas (950 hPa) located at 14.3S 179.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. Position FAIR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 5 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center
Cyclone continues to intensify. Primary bands wrapping tightly around banding eye. Cyclone lies over weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered south southwest by north northeast deep layer mean flow.
Dvorak analysis based on 1.4 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 5.0
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Global models agree on southwest track and intensification.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.4S 180.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 16.4S 179.7E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 19.3S 179.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 20:30 PM UTC...
Just like we did last year.
Link
i agree
or the first week of may
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
The cause for Ului's problems is what I discussed last night, severely restricted outflow to the east and northeast of the center by an upper low, which you can see in the satellite winds below. It's so bad that you can even see some of the high clouds moving towards Ului's center on the Water Vapor loop. What this pattern is doing is allowing the upper low to pump mid-level dry air into the cyclone, which is evident in the microwave image below as a massive dry slot in the southeast quadrant of the system. Wind shear is not the problem here. The Fiji Meteorological Center wants something to blame, but it's not wind shear. The upper anticyclone over Ului did not just vanish in 12 hours. Tomas has as much or more "shear" over it than Ului does, and Tomas looks better than Ului right now. The problem is the upper low punching dry air into Ului's core and wreaking havoc with her outflow on the east and northeast side. This is what is making her look asymmetric, which makes it tempting to blame it on shear, but it's not the shear that is making her look this way.
getagameplan.org
This will likely make the storm the strongest to hit Fiji since Cyclone Sina of 1990. The track of that storm is below:
Tomas is expected to track into two warm anomaly areas in the Midlatitude South Pacific, circulating the warmer water farther southeast. From there, the storm could continue to bring the warm water into Pine Island Bay, speeding up subglacial melting in the area.
Current lat x lon diameter of Ului: 10 x 7
Both are very large storms.
Previous month forcast there from back in feb. Pretty save bet that at the very least we'll have neutral conditions during the heart of this hurricane season. If other factors cooperate we should have an interesting season.
Talk about an upside-down winter: mostly sunny and warm until the end of winter, then when spring starts we have a week of snow and cold rain.
You literally cannot ask for a better setup than that for an active season with major landfall danger to the United States and Caribbean. The same principles hold true here as they did last month when I released my hurricane season outlook: Heat building in the deep tropics, the negative NAO and dying El Nino forcing convergence and upward motion over the southwest Atlantic, and the model forecasts all agreeing on the kind of setup that can really focus hurricane activity in a dangerous area this summer.
You'll notice on the model that the Atlantic has the most extreme parameters of any other ocean worldwide. The only basin that comes close is the Indian Ocean, which should also be active this year. This El Nino is leaving a lot of heat and moisture in the atmosphere on its way out, and that means somebody is going to have an active season to use up that excess energy. So far, the current conditions and trends are pointing towards the Atlantic as being the focal point for strong activity this year. I can't stress enough how much people should take this seriously and get ready early this year, to make sure you're well-prepared. Every year should be taken as a serious threat, but I hope that our warnings about this season prompt some people not to slack in their preparations.
Oh sorry Storm I hadn't refreshed and seen your post of the graphics before I submitted mine.
One should stress the points of interest but creating a atmosphere of Hype dosent do any good.
We in the Hurricane Prone areas of the US, should have a Evac plan,a Supply of goods and water for every family member for a week at least.
Preparation is the Key.
We have all the hurricane-enhancing factors of La Nina, El Nino, El Nino Modoki, ENSO-neutral, warm South Pacific, early and strong WHWP, warm SE Northeast Pacific temperatures, warm MDR, reduced shear, increased Caribbean precipitation, strong Loop Current, Gulf Stream Anomalies, weak North Atlantic Gyre, slightly reduced SAL, low pressure anomalies in the Caribbean and MDR, warm Cape Verde area, weak Canary Current, cross-Atlantic jets, weak Azores High, vast and northerly Bermuda High, strong low-level convergence, warm South Atlantic, strong ICTZ, ocean current fluctuations, warm global temperatures, flat early-season SST lines, warm-cold anomaly division, unstable air, weak quasi-stationary highs and lows, weak steering currents, diverted Gulf Stream, and warmer anomalies than 2005...likely all in place, all conspiring to produce an active and perhaps record-breaking season!
Hurricane Season Could Be 'Extreme,' Forecaster Says
(March 11) -- AccuWeather.com, which just issued its early hurricane season forecast, not only believes that the 2010 season will be more active than last year, but the private company sees the potential for an "extreme season" with an above-normal threat all along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
The forecast was led by chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi, who believes that this year will be more like the 2008 hurricane season than the much quieter 2009 season. In 2008, there were 17 named storms, eight of which were hurricanes, including the major hurricane Ike that ravaged the upper Texas coast. In 2009, only two storms (one of which was a hurricane) made landfall, both along the Gulf Coast, making it the least active Atlantic hurricane season since 1997.
Hey Adrian :) Yes let's hope for that trough. By the looks of it though even a trough would mean trouble for places like Florida if the western Caribbean has an active year. The trough would just pull a bunch of trouble out of there and into the gulf...but let's hope not.
I'm not sure how consistent these daily CFS model runs are as opposed to the monthly forecasts, but today's map shows a negative 500mb anomaly over the southeast U.S. during August through October:
oh Lord
* Be Safe * Be Smart * Be Prepared *
Active Indian Ocean season...that doesn't sound good. We can't forget Nargis (2008): 150,000 dead. Link
Also, I forgot to add to the list of contributing factors to an active season: a dry Amazon. This means generally warmer SSTs, warm air temperatures, and higher precipitation from the Western Caribbean to the Central Gulf.
Precipitation:
MSLP:
Sea Surface Temperature:
Surface Wind Speed Anomalies for December-February of 2009-2010:
Surface Wind Speed Anomalies for December-February of 1963-64, 1994-95, 1997-98, and 2004-05:
My prediction for this season is:
18 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
5 major Hurricanes
1 Category 5 Hurricane
Record cold usually spells trouble for the Peninsula. Starting in 08 and discounting the obvious anomalies from this year, I was expecting an active season for the peninsula this year. Seems the anomalies are only to fuel the fire to come.
Of note, the waters of the Gulf and Western Atlantic, close to home, are the coldest they've been in many years. We're starting from a much lower point so, without any positive temperature anomalies this spring & summer, we should take longer to get up to speed.
However, seeing recent storms defy the what was and go full steam in less than hospitable ocean temps has me wondering.
Well the gulf won't have a problem warming up, you can count on that. The loop current is going to flood the gulf with warm water from the Caribbean once the sun starts warming things up this spring. The gulf stream east of Florida will follow once the gulf warms up. That whole area should be normal to above normal by the time the season starts.
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