Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The future of intense winter storms

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:43 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010

When Winter Storm Xynthia powered ashore over Europe last weekend, it brought hurricane-force wind gusts, flooding rains, and a 1-meter storm surge topped by 8-meter high battering waves that overwhelmed sea walls in France, killing scores of people. Today, AIR Worldwide estimated the insured damage from the storm at $1.5 - $3 billion. Intense extratropical cyclones like Xynthia, with central pressures below 970 mb, make up less than 20% of all wintertime cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, but cause the vast majority of the devastation and loss of life. The ten deadliest winter storms to hit Europe over the past 60 years all had minimum pressures lower than 970 mb. The situation is similar for North America, though the storms generally do not get as intense as their European counterparts (the four major Nor'easters this winter have had central pressures of 968, 969, 978, and 972 mb). It is important, then, to ask if these strongest of the strong storms are changing in frequency, and whether a future warmer world will have more or less of these storms.

Figure 1. Winter Storm Xynthia, as captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Image was acquired in two separate overpasses on February 27, 2010. MODIS captured the eastern half of the image around 10:50 UTC, and the western half about 12:30 UTC. Forming a giant comma shape, clouds stretch from the Atlantic Ocean to northern Italy. Xynthia peaked in intensity at 18 UTC February 27, with a central pressure of 966 mb. Image credit: NASA.

Have intense Northern Hemisphere winter storms increased in number?
Most of the material for this post comes from three sources: the 2007 IPCC report, a 2009 review titled, Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, and Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). An increasing number of intense winter storms in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades of the 20th century was a common theme of many of the studies reviewed. However, the studies used different measures as to what constitutes an "intense" storm, and have some disagreement on which areas of the globe are seeing more intense storms. A 1996 study by Canadian researcher Steven Lambert (Figure 3) found a marked increase in intense wintertime cyclones (central pressure less than 970 mb) in the latter part of the 20th century. Most of this increase occurred in the Pacific Ocean. Other studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific in the latter part of the 20th century. Benestad and Chen(2006) found an increase in the number of intense storms over the Nordic countries over the period 1955-1994, but no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic. Gulev et al. (2001) found a small increase in the number of intense North Pacific storms (core pressure below 980 mb), a large increase in the Arctic, but a small decrease in the Atlantic. McCabe et al. 2001 found an increase at both mid-latitudes and high latitudes, particularly in the Arctic. Hirsch et al. (2001) found that the number of intense Nor'easters along the U.S. East Coast (storms with winds > 52 mph) stayed roughly constant at three storms per year over the period 1951 - 1997. Over the period 1900 to 1990, the number of strong cyclones (less than 992 mb) in November and December more than doubled over the Great Lakes of North America (Angel and Isard, 1998). With regards to Europe, Lionello et al. conclude, "the bulk of evidence from recent studies mostly supports, or at least does not contradict, the finding of an attenuation of cyclones over the Mediterranean and an intensification over Northern Europe during the second part of the twentieth century".

Figure 2. Trends in strong extratropical cyclones with central pressures less than 980 mb, for the period 1989 - 2009, as estimated using thirteen different methods, M02 - M22, defined in Neu et al., 2012. The error-bars represent the 95% confidence range of the trend estimate. A trend is significant at 5% level if the error-bar does not include zero. Four of the thirteen methods showed a slightly significant downward trend in both summertime and wintertime Northern Hemisphere strong extratropical cyclones during the period. None of the methods showed a statistically significant trend in Southern Hemisphere strong extratropical cyclones during either summer or winter. Image credit: U. Neu, M.G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H.F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, I. Kindem, G.C. Leckebusch, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, and H. Wernli, "IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 120919072158001, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1

In summary, the best science we have shows that there has not been a statistically significant increase in the number of intense wintertime extratropical storms globally in the past two decades, but there has been and increase in the North Pacific and Arctic. Increased wave heights have been observed along the coasts of Oregon and Washington during this period, adding confidence to the finding of increased intense storm activity. The evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Wintertime top 5% heavy precipitation events (both rain and snow) have increased over the Northeast U.S. in recent decades (Groisman et al., 2004), so Nor'easters have been more of a threat to cause flooding problems and heavy snow events. In all portions of the globe, tracks of extratropical storms have shifted poleward in recent decades, in accordance with global warming theory. Note that the historical data base for strong winter storms is in better shape than the data base we are using to try to detect long-term changes in hurricanes. The Ulbrich et al. (2009) review article states:

The IPCC AR4 (cf. Trenberth et al. 2007, p. 312) states that the detection of long-term changes in cyclone measures is hampered by incomplete and changing observing systems. Recent studies found, however, a general reliability of results for cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. There are no sudden shifts in intensities that would indicate inhomogeneities, and also a comparison with cyclone activity estimated from regional surface and radiosonde data (Wang et al. 2006b; Harnik and Chang 2003) confirmed the general reliability of the data".

However, the data is not as good in the Southern Hemisphere, so the finding that intense winter storms are also increasing in that hemisphere must be viewed with caution.

Figure 3. Number of intense winter cyclones with central pressure less than 970 mb in the Northern Hemisphere, North Pacific, and North Atlantic between 1899 - 1991. Image credit: Lambert, S.J., 1996: Intense extratropical Northern Hemisphere winter cyclone events: 1899-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 101D, 2131921325.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number
General Circulation Models (GCMs) like the ones used in the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report do a very good job simulating how winter storms behave in the current climate, and we can run simulations of the atmosphere with extra greenhouse gases to see how winter storms will behave in the future. The results are very interesting. Global warming is expected to warm the poles more than the equatorial regions. This reduces the difference in temperature between the pole and Equator. Since winter storms form in response to the atmosphere's need to transport heat from the Equator to the poles, this reduced temperature difference reduces the need for winter storms, and thus the models predict fewer storms will form. However, since a warmer world increases the amount of evaporation from the surface and puts more moisture in the air, these future storms drop more precipitation. During the process of creating that precipitation, the water vapor in the storm must condense into liquid or frozen water, liberating "latent heat"--the extra heat that was originally added to the water vapor to evaporate it in the first place. This latent heat intensifies the winter storm, lowering the central pressure and making the winds increase. So, the modeling studies predict a future with fewer total winter storms, but a greater number of intense storms. These intense storms will have more lift, and will thus tend to drop more precipitation--including snow, when we get areas of strong lift in the -15°C preferred snowflake formation region. For completeness' sake, some of the studies that show more intense winter cyclones in a warmer world are Lambert (1995), Boer et al. (1992), Dai et al. (2001), Geng and Sugi (2003), Fyfe (2003), Lambert (2004), Leckebusch and Ulbrich (2004), Lambert and Fyfe (2006), Pinto et al. (2007), and Lionello et al. (2008). A review article be Ulbrich et al. provides a nice summary. However, two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. One interesting new study (O'Gorman, 2010) found that wintertime extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere would increase in intensity by 2100 primarily because the surface would heat up more than the upper air, making the atmosphere more unstable. In summer, the models predict a decrease in extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, these storms were predicted in increase in intensity year-round. The models studied were the 2007 IPCC suite of climate models.

What the IPCC models say
The Lambert and Fyfe (2006) study, titled, "Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise", looked at thirteen models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC Climate Change report. Of these models, eleven simulated an increase in the number and intensity of the most intense cyclones (<970 mb pressure) in the climate expected by 2100. Two of the models did not, so it is fair to say that there is some uncertainty in these results. Nevertheless, the model results are compelling enough that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms.

Figure 4. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Conclusion
The best science we have suggests that there has not been an increase in intense wintertime extratropical cyclones globally in recent decades, though there has been an increase in the Pacific and Arctic. Intense winter extratropical cyclones are expected to in increase in number and shift northwards in a warming climate, with northwest Europe at significantly higher risk of seeing an increase in intense storms. Research by Barredo (2010) suggests that Europe has not yet seen a significant increase in damaging winter storms, since normalized damages from severe winter storms did not increase between 1970 - 2008.

References
Auer, A.H. Jr. and J.M. White, 1982: The Combined Role of Kinematics, Thermodynamics, and Cloud Physics Associated with Heavy Snowfall Episodes. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, pp 500-507.

Barredo, J.I., 2010, "No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970–2008," Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 97-104, 2010, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-97-2010

Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E (2006): Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:35183543

Boer GJ, McFarlane NA, Lazare M (1992) Greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated with the CCC second generation general circulation model. J Climate 5:10451077

Dai, A., et al., 2001b: Climates of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries simulated by the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Clim., 14, 485519.

Fyfe, J.C., 2003: Extratropical southern hemisphere cyclones: Harbingers of climate change? J. Clim., 16, 28022805.

Geng, Q.Z., and M. Sugi, 2003: Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols - Study with a high-resolution AGCM. J. Clim., 16, 22622274.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2007a: Higher waves along U.S. east coast linked to hurricanes. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 88, 301.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2007b: A note on the depiction and analysis of wave-height histograms. Shore & Beach, 75(4), 1- 5.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Lambert, S.J., 1995: The effect of enhanced greenhouse warming on winter cyclone frequencies and strengths, J Climate 8:1447-1452

Lambert, S.J., 1996: Intense extratropical Northern Hemisphere winter cyclone events: 1899-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 101D, 2131921325.

Lambert S.J., 2004: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths in transient enhanced greenhouse warming simulations using two coupled climate models. Atmos Ocean 42:173 181

Lambert, S.J., and J.C. Fyfe, 2006: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Clim. Dyn., 26, 713728.

Leckebusch, G.C., and U. Ulbrich, 2004: On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change. Global Planet. Change, 44, 181193.

Lionello P, Boldrin U, Giorgi F (2008) Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation. Clim Dyn 30:657671

Neu, U., M.G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H.F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, I. Kindem, G.C. Leckebusch, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, and H. Wernli, "IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 120919072158001, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1

O'Gorman, P.A., 2010, Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1011547107

Pinto JG, Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M, Zacharias S (2007c) Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPIOM1 GCM. Clim Dyn 29:195210

Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G.C. and J.G. Pinto (2009), Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 96, Numbers 1-2 / April, 2009 DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8

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52. jeffs713 5:40 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32: I never said it wouldn't result in more moisture overall, that is a fundamental truth. I challenged how much condensation would still happen due to the overall warming of the entire atmosphere. Oh, I know you weren't challenging the overall. What I was asking (and I could have asked it better, my apologies), is if anyone actually knows the full relationship between temp and available moisture content, in mathematical terms. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

54. jeffs713 5:47 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
46. For the record, I know quite a few conservatives that believe GW/CC is a real fact. It is NOT just a "liberal" issue. Also, allow me to quote something of yours... Quoting Skepticall: If somebody tells me that I am wrong and doesn't provide anything then he must be way out there. In the exact context and intent of your quote here, many skeptics of GW/CC are "way out there". I see many examples of skeptics trying to debunk peer-reviewed papers based upon conjecture, heresay, and convoluted logic. With nothing provided to back it up. (that is not to say this is the case with all skeptics, just some of them. I also see quite a few examples of skeptics that can provide data to debunk some of these same peer-reviewed papers... these examples I respect and listen to) What I am trying to point out is that with how emotional people are getting over GW/CC, it is senseless to attack the people making statements. It is better to fight what you believe is incorrect data with data that refutes it... in a RESPECTFUL manner. One side is being a lot less respectful than the other... I will let everyone else figure out which side is which. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

55. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin) 5:51 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Dr. Masters: How can they know storms will drop more precipitation in a warmer world. Yes there would be more moisture evaporated into the atmosphere, but you have to cool the air back down to condensate that moisture back into a solid or liquid state. If the world is warmer overall, who's to say the balance between how much moisture exists in the atmosphere and how much is allowed to condensate won't stay about the same? This is a good question. It is clear from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation that a warmer world will have more water vapor in the air, and thus the potential for more precipitation. Will this increase in precipitation indeed occur? There's no obvious way to answer this question without running climate models to see, and the climate models are saying that precipitation and run-off will indeed increase. In particular, we can expect a significant increase in heavy precipitation events, the ones most likely to create flooding. Jeff Masters

56. Levi32 5:52 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

57. nrtiwlnvragn 5:55 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Skepticall: "Frequency. It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged owing to greenhouse warming. We have very low confidence in projected changes in individual basins. Current models project changes ranging from −6 to −34% globally, and up to ±50% or more in individual basins by the late twenty-first century." From the site you gave me. I sould have been more specific in the part that was not accurate, it was this: The report just published in the journal Nature Geoscience also found that the increase in tropical storm activity the planet has seen since 1995 is part of a natural cycle completely unrelated to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. I posted the actual finding: It remains uncertain whether past changes in any tropical cyclone activity (frequency, intensity, rainfall, and so on) exceed the variability expected through natural causes, after accounting for changes over time in observing capabilities. Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

59. Levi32 5:57 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting JeffMasters: This is a good question. It is clear from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation that a warmer world will have more water vapor in the air, and thus the potential for more precipitation. Will this increase in precipitation indeed occur? There's no obvious way to answer this question without running climate models to see, and the climate models are saying that precipitation and run-off will indeed increase. In particular, we can expect a significant increase in heavy precipitation events, the ones most likely to create flooding. Jeff Masters Thank you Dr. Masters....so I guess it comes down to having to trust the IPCC's climate models... But what about my 2nd question about the intensity of extratropical storms? Warmer air won't rise as far or as fast if it isn't more buoyant, and it won't be more buoyant in a warmer world if the entire tropospheric column is warmer, making the relative temperature difference between the air parcel and its surrounding environment the same. If this is the case then the surface pressure of the storm wouldn't lower any more than it would now. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

62. nrtiwlnvragn 6:05 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Skepticall: Not to seem nitpicky but is this the same article in the site I linked? Your link gave me a "Page not found" but that is the most recent article (Feb 21, 2010) in Nature Geoscience published on hurricanes and global warming. Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

65. jeffs713 6:07 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Skepticall: I provide information on the Global Warming blog that debunks their side all the time or parts of what they say and they don't ever reply back. To say something about the last statement. I would say the "deniers" are the ones who are being respectful. One big part of that is look at the blog most of the deniers are hidden. Want to know why the believers are ganging up on them and making them hidden because we actually provide facts not ipcc peer reviewed "facts" I wasn't calling you out in particular, but rather just bringing light to a salient point. Both sides have behaved disrespectfully on both sides, without a doubt, I just personally have seen more GW/CC skeptics being disrespectful. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

66. nrtiwlnvragn 6:12 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Skepticall: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2010/03/01/new-study-says-global-warming-reduces-hurrica ne-active-will-media-not try that I tried to do the link thing but never worked and still don't really know how to do it. Same result, page not found. To do a link, first remove the http:// that shows in the pop-up box and then paste in the URL of what you are linking. Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

68. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin) 6:14 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Skepticall: . Quoting Levi32: Thank you Dr. Masters....so I guess it comes down to having to trust the IPCC's climate models... But what about my 2nd question about the intensity of extratropical storms? Warmer air won't rise as far or as fast if it isn't more buoyant, and it won't be more buoyant in a warmer world if the entire tropospheric column is warmer, making the relative temperature difference between the air parcel and its surrounding environment the same. If this is the case then the surface pressure of the storm wouldn't lower any more than it would now. The upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are cooling due to increased greenhouse gases, and are expected to continue to cool this century. If the surface is warming, the upper layers of the atmosphere must cool in order for the Earth to maintain radiative heat balance. Since the surface will warm and the upper atmosphere will cool, this will increase instability in a future warmer climate. Del Genio et al.(2007) used a climate model with doubled CO2 to show that a warming climate would make the atmosphere more unstable (higher CAPE) and thus prone to more severe weather. See my post http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=910&tstamp=200802. Jeff Masters

70. toontown 6:22 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
From the great white north - - the sales of hockey sticks has dropped dramatically, beach balls are been spirited from stores - - our day time high nearly exceeded our Normal Average High today for the first time since who knows, probably mid November. Normal average high for today should be 26F , today’s temperature at high noon 25F , missed it by that much !! Any day now our daily high will get above freezing !!! Spring can’t be more than 6 weeks away eh ?? Member Since: Diciembre 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

71. nrtiwlnvragn 6:26 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Skepticall I found the article on that website. The author contradicts himself within the article. He first states: The report just published in the journal Nature Geoscience also found that the increase in tropical storm activity the planet has seen since 1995 is part of a natural cycle completely unrelated to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Later on in the article: After supplying readers with the important background concerning this matter, the Times presented the facts: However, the latest research, just published in Nature Geoscience, paints a very different picture. It suggests that the rise in hurricane frequency since 1995 was just part of a natural cycle, and that several similar previous increases have been recorded, each followed by a decline. Now there is a difference between "is part of a natural cycle" and "It suggests" Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

72. CaicosRetiredSailor 6:28 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Thank you Dr. Masters, If about 20 of the folks who base their climatological analysis comments on politics rather than science, go away for the week, I will be here to read and learn. Thanks again. CRS Member Since: Julio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5115

73. pipelines 6:28 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Thank you Dr. Masters....so I guess it comes down to having to trust the IPCC's climate models... But what about my 2nd question about the intensity of extratropical storms? Warmer air won't rise as far or as fast if it isn't more buoyant, and it won't be more buoyant in a warmer world if the entire tropospheric column is warmer, making the relative temperature difference between the air parcel and its surrounding environment the same. If this is the case then the surface pressure of the storm wouldn't lower any more than it would now. I think it is pretty safe to assume that if the globe warms (aka the troposphere) basic physics won't be interrupted and this atmospheric level will still be heated by surface heat radiation. Will the upper levels of the troposphere heat at the same ratio of the earth's surface? Probably, but it is hard to say for sure. If this is the case though, it is pretty safe to assume that "pressure drops" in general in these storms would stay the same. In regards to precipitation output from a hotter planet, you have to take a few basic principles into account. Hotter atmosphere can hold higher amounts of water vapor. Hotter water evaporates at a faster rate. Greater water surface area evaporates at a faster rate if compared to identical volumes of water at a same temperature with a lower surface area. So what this boils down to is, which is the correct equation? Rate of evaporation increase > troposphere water vapor reservoir increase (more precipitation) or Rate of evaporation increase < troposphere water vapor reservoir increase (less precipitation) or Rate of evaporation increase = troposphere water vapor reservoir increase (equal precipitation) No one knows the answer to this, all we have to go by are computer models programmed by people who don't have the answers. Member Since: Julio 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 221

74. PcolaDan 6:29 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: Thank you Dr. Masters, If about 20 of the folks who base their climatological analysis comments on politics rather than science, go away for the week I will be here to read and learn. Thanks again. CRS +1 Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

79. nrtiwlnvragn 6:42 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Skepticall: But if it suggests then it means its tending to that direction rather than the other way. That was The Times take, the actual statement from the report is "It remains uncertain" which is neutral. One can read the entire report and reach their own opinion, however they should state it as opinion. Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

80. tornadodude 6:44 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Alex - TS Bonnie - TS Colin - Cat. 2 Danielle - Cat. 3 Earl - TS Fiona - Cat. 1 Gaston - Cat. 4 Hermine - Cat. 2 Igor - TS Julia - Cat. 3 Karl -Cat. 2 Lisa - TS Matthew - TS Nicole - Cat 1 Otto- TS Stop at Otto 15 storms, 3 majors, 8 hurricanes Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

81. Levi32 6:47 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Skepticall: Trust and IPCC. Can you really use that in the same sentence and feel alright? Nope I cannot. Hence the sarcasm in my response to the good doctor. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

84. nrtiwlnvragn 6:49 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Don't forget that storms that previously were categorized as Tropical Storms based on QuikScat data may not be categorized this year with the loss of QuikScat. Notice I emphasized may not. Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

85. tornadodude 6:51 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz: You made the "I" storm in a neutral year a TS? May it be so! :) Those Russian "I" names bring back some terrifying memories.... yeah, thought Id be different haha Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

86. Stormchaser2007 6:57 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Just something to chew on till June 2010 (Current): 2005: Member Since: Junio 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

87. PcolaDan 7:00 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Just something to chew on till June 2010 (Current): 2005: OMG..... the landmass has gone from a healthy pink to ......... moldy GREEN!!!!! Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

88. TampaTom 7:01 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Hmmmm.... I'll throw my hat in... Alex - TS Bonnie - Cat. 1 Colin - TS Danielle - Cat. 2 Earl - Cat 1 Fiona - Cat. 3 Gaston - TS Hermine - Cat. 4 Igor - Cat 2 (This is the one that will mess up Labor Day) Julia - Cat. 3 Karl -Cat. 2 Lisa - TS Matthew - TS Nicole - Cat 1 Otto- TS Paula - Cat. 3 Stop at Paula, a late season surprise a la Ida in 2009 or Paloma in 2008. 17 storms, 4 majors, 10 hurricanes Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter Member Since: Junio 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1048

89. Levi32 7:03 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Don't forget that storms that previously were categorized as Tropical Storms based on QuikScat data may not be categorized this year with the loss of QuikScat. Notice I emphasized may not. QuikScat helps with complicated systems but most of the time it is not that hard to tell when a system is a TS. The NHC has been making no sense on a lot of storms the last few years based on the accepted definition of a tropical storm. If the system is over waters of 26C or greater, has gales in at least one quadrant, and has a closed rotary circulation, name it. It's not hard, really. But things seem to have changed during this past decade in how the NHC names things. Edit: I realize QuikScat provides large-scale wind observations in the absence of buoys or ships, but it really isn't that hard to tell when something has gale-force winds if you know how to read satellite imagery. If something's a TS, you usually know it. That's just my take. QuikScat will be missed. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

90. TampaTom 7:04 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz: You made the "I" storm in a neutral year a TS? May it be so! :) Those Russian "I" names bring back some terrifying memories.... Funny... one Russian I name retired (Ivan) and replaced with another (Igor).... Hmmm...... By the way, that's pronounced Eye-gor... Member Since: Junio 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1048

91. xcool 7:19 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
16-7-4 let's see if it verifies. ;) Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

92. nrtiwlnvragn 7:23 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
89. Levi32 QuikScat helped the most in determining a closed circulation, something bouys and ships can't do. The storms it may affect would be on the margin between depressions and tropical storms, and are outside of recon range. Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

93. TampaHelpDesk 7:23 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Too bad about the QuikSCAT. Are we going to have an instrument on that Japanese satellite that's supposed to launch this year? EDIT Oops, I thought it was launching this year... 2016 Member Since: Agosto 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 39

94. Levi32 7:28 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: 89. Levi32 QuikScat helped the most in determining a closed circulation, something bouys and ships can't do. The storms it may affect would be on the margin between depressions and tropical storms, and are outside of recon range. Yeah it will for sure be a missed tool. I just don't think it will have much of an impact on storms closer to home threatening our shores, which we can and should fly into to determine if their circulations are closed, and then name them if the base criteria are met. Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

95. tornadodude 7:29 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Yeah it will for sure be a missed tool. I just don't think it will have much of an impact on storms closer to home threatening our shores, which we can and should fly into to determine if their circulations are closed, and then name them if the base criteria are met. its not often that tools are missed haha Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

96. NRAamy 7:32 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
its not often that tools are missed haha bad! bad tdude!!! ;) Member Since: Enero 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

97. tornadodude 7:33 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: its not often that tools are missed haha bad! bad tdude!!! ;) haha :P there's a stranger! how ya doing? Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

98. Floodman 7:36 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: its not often that tools are missed haha bad! bad tdude!!! ;) Amy! How's things? Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

99. nrtiwlnvragn 7:36 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32: Yeah it will for sure be a missed tool. I just don't think it will have much of an impact on storms closer to home threatening our shores, which we can and should fly into to determine if their circulations are closed, and then name them if the base criteria are met. Agree, I'm referring to a subset of these storms that are outside of recon (I don't know what that exact number is). Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

100. NRAamy 7:36 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
okey dokey .... :) Member Since: Enero 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

101. NRAamy 7:37 PM GMT en Marzo 03, 2010
Jerry! :) Member Since: Enero 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

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