Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Great earthquake rocks Chile; NYC gets 4th greatest snow ever; Xynthia batters Europe
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:26 PM GMT en Febrero 27, 2010 +2
A great earthquake with magnitude 8.8 rocked the coast of Chile at 6:34 GMT this morning, generating a potentially dangerous tsunami that is racing across the Pacific Ocean. The great quake is the 7th most powerful tremor in world history (Figure 1). Preliminary tsunami wave heights for the California coast near Santa Barbara are 2 - 2.5 feet. The wave is expected to arrive between 12:15 - 12:35 pm PST. The tsunami is expected to arrive in Hawaii between 11:05 - 11:42am HST, with a wave 8.2 feet high expected in Hilo, on the Big Island. A tsunami from the 9.5 Magnitude 1960 earthquake in Chile killed 61 people in Hilo. Today's quake was so strong, that it triggered a seiche in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, over 4,500 miles (7,000 km) away. The lake sloshed back and forth, creating a wave 0.4 - 0.51 feet on either side of the lake.


Figure 1. Wikipedia's list of strongest earthquakes of all-time.

Preliminary tsunami amplitude forecasts:

La Jolla, CA 2.3 ft
Los Angeles, CA 2.0 ft
Malibu, CA 2.6 ft
Pt. San Luis, CA 2.3 ft
Half Moon Bay, CA 2.6 ft
Crescent City, CA 1.7 ft
Morro Bay, CA 2.2 ft
Santa Monica, CA 3.3 ft
San Francisco, CA 0.7 ft
Pismo Beach, CA 4.6 ft

Hilo, HI 8.2 feet 11:5am HST
Honolulu, HI 1.6 ft 11:37am HST
Kahului, HI 7.2 ft 11:26am HST
Nawiliwili, HI 3.0 ft 11:42am HST
Haleiwa 1.6 ft
Kawaihae 2.0 ft

Port Orford, OR 0.7 ft

Moclip, WA 1.3 ft

Seward, AK 1.3 ft
Stika, AK 1.3 ft
Kodiak, AK 2.3 ft

Tofino, British Columbia 1.7 ft

Today's great quake occurred at the boundary between the Nazca and South American plates about 325 km southwest of the capital Santiago (population 5.3 million). The depth was estimated at 35 km. At least four aftershocks of magnitude 6 or higher have occurred, the largest being a 6.9 aftershock. Fortunately, the area close to the epicenter is relatively sparsely populated, but there may be heavy damage in Concepción (est. pop. 300,000) and Chillan (est. pop. 170,000), which lie 115 km and 100 km to the south of the epicenter, respectively.


Figure 2. NOAA's preliminary forecast of tsunami wave energy for today's earthquake. Image credit: NOAA Tsunami Warning Center.

New York City slammed with its 4th largest snowstorm on record
The snow from the fourth extreme snowstorm to wallop the Northeast U.S. this winter dumped a remarkable 20.9" of snow on New York City's Central Park yesterday and Thursday. This is the 4th largest snowstorm for the city in recorded history. According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park are:

26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
20.9" Feb 25-26, 2010
20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978
17.6" Feb 11-12, 1983
17.5" Feb 4-7, 1920

The storm also helped New York City set a new all-time snowfall record for the most snow ever recorded in a month--36.9". The old record was 30.5", set in March 1896. However, the old Lower Manhattan WB Station recorded 37.9" in February 1894. Yesterday's snowstorm puts New York City's snow for the 2009 - 2010 season at 51.4", making it the 11th snowiest winter since 1869. Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, lists the city's all-time seasonal snowfall record at 81.5", set in the winter of 1867 - 1868. This measurement came before official records began in Central Park, and were done be the NY Park Commissioners (see "Annual Report NY Park Commissioners", 1868, by John B. Marie). The second snowiest winter in NYC occurred during the winter of 1995 - 1996, when 75.6" fell.

Destructive Winter Storm Xynthia battering Portugal and Spain
A powerful 969 mb low pressure system named "Xynthia" is rapidly intensifying of the coast of Spain, and stands poised to deliver a devastating blow to Portugal, Spain, and France today and tomorrow as it powers through Europe. Sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/hr) were reported today at a Personal Weather Station in Costa del Morte, Spain. The pressure fell to 969 mb as Xynthia passed overhead. For comparison, Winter Storm Klaus had a minimum pressure of 967 mb. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Models predict that Xynthia will continue to intensify today, reaching 962 mb as it moves into the west coast of France Sunday morning. Sustained winds of 50 - 65 mph (80 - 105 km/hr) with hurricane-force gusts up to 100 mph (160 km/hr) are possible along the north coast of Spain tonight and the west coast of France on Sunday as Xynthia barrels through. The storm is also bringing an exceptionally moist plume of tropical moisture ashore, as seen in precipitable water imagery from NOAA (Figure 4). This moisture is likely to cause moderate to severe flooding in portions of Europe over the weekend.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image at 12 GMT of Xynthia.


Figure 4. Satellite measurements show a region of extremely high atmospheric moisture is associated with Winter Storm Xynthia. This moisture will surge over Portugal and Spain today, potentially creating serious flooding. Image credit: Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS.

Links to follow:
Wundermap for Northwest Spain
Spanish radar
Meteo-France
Portugese radar

Jeff Masters
Central Park 26Feb10 (MickyDee)
the BIG one Taken in Manhattan
Central Park 26Feb10
Tree 1, House 0 (Backbaybob)
This cottage was no match for 65 mph wind and an old pine tree.
Tree 1, House 0
Categories: Winter Weather
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1051. FatPenguin 2:58 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Quoting AussieStorm:

there can also be unstable undersea cliff/land area that can fall due to even a relatively small quake.


Yep, these can be the most dangerous because they're not immediately recognized. A small tremor could topple the undersea cliff. There's a big concern that one could happen just off the cost of some large cities that have small islands off the coast, like Los Angeles.
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
1052. TampaSpin 3:05 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
DATE LAT LON MAG DEPTH REGION
01-MAR-2010 10:37:37 18.44 -72.75 4.6 10.0 HAITI REGION


DATE LAT LON MAG DEPTH REGION
01-MAR-2010 08:43:37 5.36 -82.55 4.8 35.0 SOUTH OF PANAMA

01-MAR-2010 12:48:22 -38.38 -73.87 4.8 35.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 12:27:15 -34.22 -71.82 5.3 35.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 12:20:18 -34.51 -73.64 5.2 35.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 10:17:29 -36.39 -71.86 4.8 35.0 CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 09:23:00 -35.62 -71.76 4.8 35.0 CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 08:58:33 -37.70 -74.39 5.3 35.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 08:46:59 -35.40 -71.03 4.9 35.0 CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 07:49:07 -35.00 -72.86 5.3 35.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 07:39:17 -35.97 -72.70 4.9 35.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 07:29:15 -33.83 -72.25 4.7 35.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 06:53:20 -24.72 -65.15 4.9 35.0 SALTA PROVINCE, ARGENTINA
01-MAR-2010 06:24:52 -33.93 -73.09 4.8 35.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 06:16:11 -37.58 -74.53 5.1 35.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 05:36:57 -36.80 -73.52 4.9 35.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 05:30:36 -34.45 -73.48 5.2 35.0 OFF COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 03:53:16 -38.64 -73.12 5.0 35.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 03:07:50 -36.12 -72.80 5.1 40.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 02:44:42 -35.09 -72.61 5.8 26.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 01:10:58 -35.16 -71.70 5.4 42.6 CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 00:49:15 -34.66 -72.56 4.8 35.3 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
01-MAR-2010 00:01:27 -38.31 -73.75 5.0 35.0 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE



Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
1053. FLWeatherFreak91 3:11 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Looks like Florida is in for some active weather tomorrow. There is a strong jet over the central peninsula and it will act to enhance the squall line as it moves out of the gulf onto the peninsula early tomorrow morning. I see the most dangerous area from hernando county east to brevard county.
Member Since: Diciembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3516
1054. TampaSpin 3:22 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
The lack of Earthquake activity near West Coast from the US to Canada looks scary to me. Lets hope the big one is not sticking really bad and ready to Snap.

Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
1055. atmoaggie 3:24 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Looks like most of the energy will stay off shore...until Florida gets in the way.

CAPE from RUC for 5 pm CST:



And the sounding for NOLA; just not enough warm at the surface for any buoyancy-induced instability.
(also for 5 pm CST...from RUC)
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1056. all4hurricanes 3:24 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Quoting FatPenguin:


Yep, these can be the most dangerous because they're not immediately recognized. A small tremor could topple the undersea cliff. There's a big concern that one could happen just off the cost of some large cities that have small islands off the coast, like Los Angeles.

In Lituya bay Alaska a small quake called a landslide that created a huge tsunami 1,700ft high! 2 fisherman were dead, one boat rode on top of the wave and the two people on board lived
Member Since: Marzo 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2235
1057. atmoaggie 3:28 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
That frontal lift will have to be vigorous for this system to produce any lightning for us in SE LA...and is expected to be enough for that. But don't be surprised if this is a relatively quiet "thunder"storm.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1058. atmoaggie 4:02 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Big 45+ dBz area (NW LA):


No lightning anywhere near:
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1059. TampaSpin 4:15 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Gettin pretty cold again....Gettin pretty cold!



Warm up coming after this one.....then it looks like a Cold break coming one last time.....UNREAL
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
1060. xcool 4:18 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
cold nooo
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526
1061. atmoaggie 4:20 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:
Gettin pretty cold again....Gettin pretty cold!



Warm up coming after this one.....then it looks like a Cold break coming one last time.....UNREAL

Wife keeps asking when she can plant some bulbs...I keep saying we could still see a night in the mid-20s in the next 3 weeks.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1062. hydrus 4:21 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Quoting all4hurricanes:

In Lituya bay Alaska a small quake called a landslide that created a huge tsunami 1,700ft high! 2 fisherman were dead, one boat rode on top of the wave and the two people on board lived
Was that the 1964 earthquake? If it was, that was a big tremor.
Member Since: Septiembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14703
1063. Levi32 4:23 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Good morning all.

The Canary Current (the current that brings cold water southward along the west African coast) looks to be struggling lately due to the weak subtropical high this year. This is another thing aiding warm SSTs in the eastern Atlantic.

Member Since: Noviembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612
1064. Ossqss 4:24 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Psst, new blog
Member Since: Junio 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
1065. nrtiwlnvragn 4:25 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
New Blog
Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9093
1066. TampaSpin 4:56 PM GMT en Marzo 01, 2010    
Home Run Leaders
Athlete GP AB HR
Brooks Beisner 21.0 77.0 4.0


Brooks Beisner stats

My Nyphew. Will be going to Aubrun next year but, will like be drafted in MLB.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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