Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Rita making landfall as a weak Catgeory 3
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:07 PM GMT en Septiembre 23, 2005 +0
Rita is making landfall near Port Arthur, TX, as a weak Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. There is nothing weak at all about any major hurricane, and it definitely a bad night to be holed up in your house or shelter listening to the awesome destruction unleased by this powerful hurricane. Radar shows some very intense echoes in the northern eyewall smashing into the coast, and infrared satellite imagery confirms the presence of extremely cold cloud tops in the northern eyewall. It appears that the interaction of the eyewall with land is producing extra surface convergence of winds that is forcing up some strong updrafts, creating very high thunderstorm tops.

Where will Rita go?
Most of the latest model runs show Rita making a anti-cyclonic loop over northeastern Texas and central Louisiana, then perhaps heading back south to punish the landfall area five days from now. She may even move back over the waters of the Gulf. She would no longer be a tropical cyclone at that point, and redevelopment is not expected.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Philippe has being absorbed into a large non-tropical low pressure system near Bermuda. This system is expected to move little the next three days, and may develop into a tropical depression. A well-organized tropical disturbance near 11N 33W, off the coast of Africa, has a surface circulation and some deep convection. This system has the potential for development the next few days as it moves westward over the mid-Atlantic. Long range models indicate that this disturbance will likely recurve to the northeast when it reaches the mid-Atlantic Ocean.

Jeff Masters
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351. leftyy420 12:45 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
might be north. we willsee as we have an update comming out soon and new recon an hour after that
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
353. Carbo04 12:46 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
These reporters know that the NHC 125 is B.S. that's why. I don't care what they say, nothing with a 930 pressure has only 125 mph winds. this is a very big, and pissed off 4, and they know it.
354. stormydee 12:47 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
uh, guys...not looking good out there. N????
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
356. atmosweather 12:48 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
eye is getting even more ragged, cant hang on to current intensity for much longer i think
Member Since: Septiembre 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255
357. jbuczyna 12:48 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
ConeOfUncertainty--

I wonder did the reporter know whether or not this person on Lake Charles has children? Darwinism only works if the genetic abnormality that tends to decrease chances of survival causes death before propogation of the bad genetic mutation to future generations...
358. leftyy420 12:49 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
stormy it might be north. we wil get a center fix in a minute
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
359. LAtigerchic 12:49 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
tell me that she isn't turning to the north..please..
360. AM91091 12:50 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
what was Charley's pressure at landfall?
361. weatherwannabe 12:50 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
I think this is a 4 - all evidence seems to indicate that it is, NHC jsut wont upgrade it. We'll have to wait for wind speeds recorded at landfall.
362. Carbo04 12:50 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Charley was 941 MB.. This is 930... Tells you something, doesnt it..
363. ConeofUncertainty 12:51 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
LAtigerchic-

Where are you? I'm in Baton Rouge. If you are in the eastern half of the state, things shouldn't get any worse from here on in.
364. SaymoBEEL 12:51 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
looks N to me
365. johnsonwax 12:51 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Keep in mind that just a month ago almost all of these guys were stepping over dead bodies in LA and MS. I think even if this was a cat 1, they'd have images of that in their head and be treating it just as seriously.
366. AM91091 12:51 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
yes...
367. franck 12:51 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Why that, Atmos, looks like eyewall is closing to me.
Member Since: Agosto 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
368. Spoon 12:51 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Have we lost Lake Charles radar already?
369. johnsonwax 12:52 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Looks like the same track to me.
370. weatherwannabe 12:52 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Anyone else having technical problems with Lake Charles radar?
371. franck 12:52 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
So what's up lefty, is the eye ragging out or closing up?
Member Since: Agosto 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
372. pseabury 12:53 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Eye doesn't look ragged to me on Radar....looks like a nice new band of convection from E all the way round to W.
Member Since: Mayo 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
373. weatherwannabe 12:53 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Spoon, I think Lake Charles NEXRAD is DOA
374. FtLauderdalepunk 12:53 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
ok to clear up the turmoil we call a blog here... Rita has taken a slight jog to the nnw but shes still on track to hit the TX/LA border so get the panties out of the wad....If anything this is great news for Houston/Galveston...
376. hookedontropics 12:54 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
I am predicting the winds will barely break 100MPH on land measurements, and you will have very few gusts above 100 with this storm.

Isabel was 957mb but the is sure a pretty eye.. convection smection.. look how ragged the core is.
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
377. weatherguy03 12:54 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
That is a very healthy system...Link...Looking excellent on radar...
Member Since: Julio 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680
378. PureCajunlady 12:55 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Hello all. Its really windy here in southeast LA. I'm just northeast of Morgan City. The wind was about 25 to 30 mph most of the day but for the last 3 hrs the winds have gotten very strong with some powerfull gust in there. We have not gotten as much rain as we thought we would of, but we are getting a lot harder winds then we thought we would get. Is it my imagination or is it that I have been staring at the TV too much,,,,,,is the eye moving more north than west? How much longer do you think we will get wind in our area?
Thanks for any info...........GOD BLESS ALL THOSE FOLKS TO OUR WEST............
380. leftyy420 12:55 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
eye looks good but still open to the south. the convection has deepened in the eye wall in the past hour
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
381. RobertForsman 12:56 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Rita is a mere shadow of her former self.
382. weatherwannabe 12:56 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
hookedontropics what can a NEXRAD station take?
383. weatherguy03 12:56 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Lake Charles radar...Link
Member Since: Julio 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680
384. LAtigerchic 12:56 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Cone..

I am in the middle of the state..Pineville..about 80 m north of the gulf and 70 miles east of TX..if she is shifting to the north, that doesn't bode well for me
385. Carbo04 12:56 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
hookedontropics we already got a 91 MPH i think an hour or so ago. The center is still a few hours off too. This is a beast still.
386. leftyy420 12:56 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
yes she looks to be m,oving more north than west

lake charles looks to be dead
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
387. Spoon 12:57 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Actually it looks like a newer base relectivity came in... some of the other products are still pretty out of date though.
388. pseabury 12:57 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Gusts over 100 easy. Sustained close to or over 100 at landfall.
Member Since: Mayo 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
389. ConeofUncertainty 12:57 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Uh oh...just had the first flick of lights in my apartment here in Baton Rouge. C'mon electricity, you've done so good up til now!
390. wxwatcher 12:57 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Interesting how 40 min ago you couldn't see the eye on the hgx radar, now you can...
392. weatherguy03 12:58 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Even if it stays open to the south, those winds in the northern eyewall are gonna slam the coast first anyway with over 100MPH gusts...
Member Since: Julio 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680
393. franck 12:58 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Anybody see the Sabine River flood warning: flood stage is 4ft, prior record 6.6 ft., forecast to crest at 20.2ft.
Member Since: Agosto 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
394. weatherwannabe 12:58 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Spoon - it is updating irregularly and you are right not all products are working. I wouldnt be surprised if we lsot it all together.
395. leftyy420 12:58 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
yeah thye must have lost power and are now on generator. shes back up at lake charles
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
396. FtLauderdalepunk 12:58 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
I LOVE HOW PEOPLE SAY THIS IS A WEAKENED DEAD STORM>>>>> HELLO PEOPLE ITS STILL A 930MB STORM...ID BE SH*TTING MYSELF IF I WERE IN ITS PATH RIGHT NOW..SO WHEN I SEE THINGS LIKE "IT A SHELL OF ITS FORMER SELF" I SAY GOTO WHERE THE EYE WILL HIT AND U SAY THAT AFTERWARDS...
397. SAINTHURRIFAN 12:59 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
hey hooked our old buddy joe got another coming through nw carrib in to gulf end of next week he has been hitting these things devloping days before nhc ever puts anything in thier outlook. also lyons just said field of strong wind is shrinking eye is filling in and waves not anywhere near katrina guess we will stick with joe ha hooked by the way great call weatherguy and get real you nailed this one when all the talk was corpus to galv. p.s this appears to be a dennis type storm certainly not a katrina still bad though.
Member Since: Agosto 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 668
398. atmosweather 12:59 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
eyewall convection is probably a little deeper than an hour ago, but it isnt anything like it was earlier today
Member Since: Septiembre 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9255
399. hookedontropics 12:59 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
Link

So the toilets do flush in the opposite direction..
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
400. weatherwonderer 12:59 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
It looks as if trolls may be lurcking and trying instigate with short posts. This is an extremely dangerous huricane and fortunately, except for one guy taking his last sail boat ride, people are taking it seriously.
Member Since: Julio 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
401. weatherwannabe 1:00 AM GMT en Septiembre 24, 2005    
good observation lefty

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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