NHC increases hurricane forecast lead times
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced today that beginning with the 2010 hurricane season, their hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for the U.S. coast will be extended in time by an additional 12 hours. Warnings will now be issued 36 hours in advance instead of 24 hours, and watches will be issued 48 hours in advance, instead of 36 hours. The increase in lead time for watches and warnings has been made possible by the tremendous improvement in hurricane track forecasts, which have improved by over 50% in the past twenty years (Figure 1). "With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life-saving decisions regarding evacuations", said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, in today's press release.
Figure 1. Average track errors for NHC Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecasts issued between 1990 - 2008. Track errors have improved by over 50% in the past 20 years. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.
Commentary
NHC has been debating for a number of years how best to "invest" the gains accrued from the steady improvement in hurricane track forecasts. One obvious savings from these better hurricane forecasts has come from the reduced evacuation costs. When a hurricane warning is issued 24 hours before the expected arrival of hurricane-force winds at the coast, it costs approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina coast (Whitehead, 2003). According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the length of coast warned decreased significantly in the past decade. During the decade of the 1990s, the average length of a hurricane warning was 455 miles, but that fell to just 335 miles between 2000 - 2006. Thus, an average of 120 fewer miles of coast were warned, at an average savings of $120 million per hurricane warning issuance. During this period, 17 storms requiring 25 hurricane warnings occurred. If the costs of coastal evacuations are indeed $1 million per mile, the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 - 2006 resulted in savings of $3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.
However, the new increased lead times for hurricane watches and warnings will lead to an increase in the length of coast warned, due to the higher uncertainties in hurricane tracks at longer forecast lead times. Between 2004 - 2008, approximately 25% of the coast that was placed under a hurricane warning actually received hurricane force winds; this percentage was 20% for areas placed under a hurricane watch. These percentages will decline with the new increased watch and warning lead times, costing money in unnecessary evacuations, and leading to increased complacency in the warned population due to too much "crying wolf".
Balanced against these increased costs is the potential disastrous loss of life should a hurricane hit an unprepared, heavily populated shoreline. With the U.S. population continuing to increase rapidly in coastal regions, the time needed to evacuate vulnerable populated regions is increasing. For example, evacuation times for the major urban areas of Texas are 28 - 34 hours for a major hurricane. Though the costs of overwarning the coast is significant, the savings in both human lives and dollars from increased warning times should outweigh these costs. In the 2002 book, Hurricane: Coping With Disaster, Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former director of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, analyzed hurricane death statistics. In 1950, about 70 U.S. residents died per year in hurricanes. In the 50 years since, the coastal population expanded by a factor of 3.2, so if we were managing the hurricane problem the way we did in 1950, we would be losing about 220 people a year. The long-term average is still about twenty per year, not including the deaths due to the levee failures during Katrina. That means we're preventing about 200 deaths per year compared with 1950. How much are these saved lives worth? A life, is, of course, priceless, but in the cold world of economics, the value of life-saving scientific research and government regulations is estimated using statistics of what people are willing to pay to avoid certain risks, and what extra money employers pay their workers to take on additional risks. This data comes primarily from payroll statistics, but opinion surveys also play a role. In 2004, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) valued an American life at $8 million. EPA cut the value of a life by 8% that year, and a further 3% in May 2008, making the economic value of a life $6.9 million in today's dollars. The Department of Transportation gives a lower figure of a life as being worth $5.8 million. Using this number implies a savings of about $1.2 billion per year for the 200 lives saved per year by better hurricane warnings and evacuations. Today's decision by NHC to increase warning times should continue this trend of saving lives, which will also provide considerable monetary benefit. Despite the increased costs and dangers of "crying wolf" too often due to overwarning the coast, I believe that the double value of saving lives--for both the intrinsic and monetary value of a human life--makes NHC's move of increasing warning and watch times the right call.
References
Whitehead, J.C., 2003: "One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of Hurricane evacuation", Ocean and Coastal Management 46, 1069.
I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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More than we really want? In Florida? Most of us are excited and would be delighted with a blizzard...though we won't get that, just thought I'd add it for dramatic emphasis. I'll be happy with flurries, but still not holding my breath.
Long term...
hard freeze temperatures and advisory level wind chills below 13
degrees during dark hours will be the main headliners for this
weekend until a slow but steady warming trend onsets during the
day Sunday. Models are hinting at a north Gulf low pressure system
moving along the Louisiana coast middle of next week that may
bring another round of cold rain. Pacific maritime airmasses
appear lined up for long term influences on forecast area latter
part of next week. The European model (ecmwf) shows a very large amplitude low
latitude trough moving into the region next weekend that will need
to be monitored for significant weather impacts...well beyond this
forecast package. 24/rr
DAY 1...
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MS...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BRUSH THE COAST FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE BIG
BEND OF FLORIDA.
DAY 3...
FLORIDA...
RARE ARCTIC SURGE AND WINTER P-TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ON DAY 3
ACROSS FLORIDA WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF...TO THE KEYS...PER MODEL H85 TEMPS OF O TO M5
CELSIUS. WARRANTS A MENTION AS BRIEF PHASE CHANGE ALONG/JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WEAK UP GLIDE RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
SHALLOW/LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...STEEP
LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SHALLOW CONVECTION
ONSHORE. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. SATURDAY...COLD SECTOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY REFORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS WITH A CONTINUED DEEPENING
OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX POSSIBLE DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA.
787
fxus64 klix 062114
afdlix
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
314 PM CST Wednesday Jan 6 2010
Short term...
the clear skies of today will be short-lived this evening as warm
air advection stratus invades from the west...current leading edge
near kaex-klft line. Arctic front at 3 PM nosing into the Texas/OK
Panhandle with 1049mb high center north of Calgary Canada. Spline
of Cold Ridge along the Continental Divide and nudging east into
the High Plains this afternoon. Extensive snow pack down to the
Ozarks will allow for little or no modification of the airmass as
it progresses to the Gulf Coast. Front still expected to arrive
into SW MS by early afternoon Thursday and advance rapidly through
the MS coast and lower la parishes by late Thursday afternoon.
Models still indicate bulk of moisture Flushing out prior to
temperatures becoming cold enough to support winter type
precipitation of any consequence. There may be a brief period...a
few minutes or so...of transition late Thursday afternoon...
generally after 4 PM for southwest MS counties...and adjacent
Florida parishes just before precipitation ends. Duration and
window of opportunity appears small and short-lived but worthy of
maintaining mention for aesthetic reasons. Thereafter...the
concerns shift to bitter cold temperatures and wind chills in
coming nights. Black ice issues are also plausible for early
morning commute Friday morning on area low elevation water
crossings mainly in rural low volume traffic areas. Black ice
usually evaporates rather quickly once sun light hits it and
traffic increases. Caution should be stressed for anyone
travelling in the pre-dawn hours on rural highways during this
cold spell. 24/rr
Maybe somebody could run it as a "back-forecast" type scenario? It would be interesting, I agree, to see what models would have come up with.....
OH NO, SAY IT AIN'T SO...
Good thing I'm not allowed to make threats/use bad language on the WU blogs...
Salvation Army left short of cash by fake SC check
By BRUCE SMITH, Associated Press Writer Bruce Smith, Associated Press Writer 39 mins ago
CHARLESTON, S.C. – The Salvation Army thought it had received a grand gift ahead of Christmas — a $25,000 check. But the donation turned out to be an expensive hoax that may force the charity to cut back on winter assistance for the needy.
Investigators said Wednesday that more than a dozen Charleston-area charities received fake checks before Christmas purporting to be gifts from a genuine local company.
That is a pretty Hi Low. Check out the SST also along the coast line, changes fast.
Sheesh......
Big surprise there! Thats how it aways works out down here. Wouldn't it be something if they get it in central part of the state?
hmmm..
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY...THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MISERABLE...
THERE IS ALSO A REMOTE CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET OR ICE PELLETS MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...
Entire Discussion
To clarify: We were not one of the nonprofits to receive one of the bogus checks...
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY...THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MISERABLE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH COLD AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AS A SIBERIAN SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
EVEN MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S IN
SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ADDING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ALSO A
REMOTE CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET OR ICE PELLETS MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DEPART. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING AROUND BASE OF DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
ON SUNDAY...AND INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND AN EVEN HIGHER FREEZE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
Wow, you think it will accumulate?
Thats a Big IF, if u know what i mean.. for us southerns, you have to believe it when u c it b/c anything can change.. and its hard to predict if it will or not at this time.. we will c how far south the L will develop.. anything can happen though.. ;)
People like that need to be punished severely.
I think it would be a really wet snow, big flakes to look at but not sticking...
I really like these maps, but wish it would snow for us in Florida though.. it could, just got to keep checking up with the models and any updates.. everyone be safe!
WOULD BE REMISS IF I DIDN`T MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP BEHIND THE INTIAL FRONTAL SURGE...GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT SOME PRECIP OUT OF THE MID LEVELS AS THE 0C H85 LINE SHIFTS SWD INTO THE NRN/CTRL CWA (BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES NWD)
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY FROZEN P-TYPE COULD FALL AS SOME LIGHT SNOWFLAKES/GRAUPEL OR SLEET.
Complete Discussion
01/05/2010 1200 PM
Jackson, Hinds County.
Extreme cold e20 f, reported by broadcast media.
*** 1 fatal *** report of fatality due to
hypothermia... elderly man found in unheated house.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
356 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010
.DISCUSSION...
/352 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010/
WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED BY THE EARLIER
SHIFTS. UPCOMING FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE A HEAVY
EMPHASIS ON THE TWO STAGES OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...FIRST THE
SNOW...FOLLOWED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW FOR OUR CWA WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE DEEP UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHEST QPF SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST
LIFT...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR ALA
FORCING/POSITION OF THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 300 MPH JET.
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A VERY MINOR PLAYER
SO FAR...S WIND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AMS HAVE BEEN ALLOWING FOR A
SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SO AM WONDERING IF THIS EVENINGS
SNOWFALLS BTWN COU AND STL COULD BE A BIT HIGHER/MORE INTENSE THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER W CNTRL MO. USING
THESE PARAMETERS...MOST INTENSE SNOWFAL SHOULD WIND DOWN OVER W
PARTS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND OVER FAR E SECTIONS
OF THE FA THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN
6 HOURLY POP/QPF/SNOW GRIDS.
CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT SOME MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LINGERING OVER
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND
NAM ARE FORECASTING A BIT OF MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM
N INTO W IL DURING THE DAY...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE RATHER MINOR AS THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A TYPICAL MID LVL
TROWEL/DEF ZONE TYPE SETUP.
OF COURSE...BY MIDDAY THURSDAY MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW. BEEN WATCHING THE SURGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ROARING
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS IT HEADS TOWARDS
DISNEYLAND. THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THREAT FOR OUR AREA WILL
BE SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL FOR US...AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE COMMON
FOR UPPER MIDWEST AND N PLAINS. ULTIMATELY...HOW BAD IT GETS WILL
DEPEND UPON THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...AND HOW HIGH THE WINDS GET. A FEW KNOT DIFFERENCE IN
SPEEDS CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OCCURS.
SUMMING UP...CURRENT HEADLINES FOR THIS STORM STILL LOOK QUITE
GOOD. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO CONVERT OVER TO WIND CHILL HEADLINES
AS THE STORM LOOSENS ITS GRIP AND THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD...BUT
FOR NOW PLACING EMPHASIS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IS BY FAR THE
MOST IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHT ATTM.
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL GRIP THE AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS OCCURRING NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE AMS HEADING
OUR WAY TRIED TO TREND THE FORECAST VERY COLD...IT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH BUT THIS SHOULD CERTAINLY BE THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
TRUETT
This cold has been starting to wear on me as rare and exciting as it is. But a chance of snow is totally different story. Considering the way things have been,if it will ever snow as I live here, this pattern this weekend is the best bet...
Im not even sure what I'll think if it actually snows here haha.
Its been so cold for so many days... Im still trying to detirmine if its real yet! lol
could b possible.. we will c ;)
Packed up and disappeared.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3326813/Global-warming-sceptics-buoyed-by-record-cold.ht ml
The weather here in the Southern Carib. Islands is getting very dry, very fast.
First wave of Sahara Dust is clearly evident this week, and the winds are gusting to 25 mph. Heavy surf conditions last week damaged coastal infrastructure, and the the wind 'feels' like April.
Looks to be a long, hard dry season coming... Nov. and Dec. rains were very short of average. The trees are losing leaves fast.
Temps very pleasant at 76 min and 82 max. But water is going to be a real issue in a few short months.
Sorry to see that it is a dread cold time for so many people in so many areas.
Glad I am not there!!
Albeit I despise cold weather, it would be interesting to see snow here in St lucie county.
yes, it all depends on where the low forms. This can change with the model runs of course.
Remember this is a highly uncertain forecast. The models can and will likely change with this. Stay tuned!
The forecast for Fort Walton Beach according to the NOAA website still stands for Thursday night with a 50% chance of snow. I don't know where you got your forecast from. It seems odd that we get only rain up here in the panhandle and there are talks of a significant snow event for Central Florida. Can anybody explain the weather dynamics for this.
If it snows in Central/South Florida and not up here, I'll be...well, I don't know, but not happy. I'll probably try to ride up to Montgomery if snow is out of the question here. I will see it tomorrow if it kills me :)
They probably went by the local mets in Pensacola saying 50% of chance.. but now they raised it to 70% of chance for thursday.. but didnt say what type of percipitation.. but those mets say its a possibility.. I believe we will get something or more.. and Fl better watch out if this L brings alot moisture or not.. depends how close it gets to the coast or not.. but anyways it would be alot of problems no matter what.. But I agree with Tampaspin and Bondonaro, that we will c sum snow or more.. we just got to check up on it, b/c it could change rapidly!
ya but driving in that nasty rain/sleet/snow mix isnt fun or heavy snow.. or maybe icy conditions.. its no fun.. be careful if u decide or not!
yeah I know!
All the local MET's are saying as rare as it is, dont be suprised to see some sleet or snow flakes this weekend>
That sounds like they are pretty confident that we will at least see a few flakes, which is pretty darn crazy, the mentioned high temps may not even reach 40 all weekend with mid 20's at night! this is gonna be something else!
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