The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT en Diciembre 11, 2009

Share this Blog
8
+

The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years has created a fundamental new change in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that has sped up sea ice loss and is affecting fall and winter weather across most of the Northern Hemisphere, according to several recent studies. Arctic sea ice loss peaks in September and October, exposing a large area of open water that heats the air above it. This extra heat has helped drive September - November air temperatures in the Arctic to 1°C (1.8°F) or more above average over about half of the depth of the lower atmosphere (Figure 1). This deep layer of warm air has grown less dense and expanded, pushing the top of the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) higher. The result has been a decrease in the pressure gradient (the difference in pressure) between the North Pole and mid-latitudes. With not as much difference in pressure to try and equalize, the jet stream has slowed down in the Arctic, creating a major change in the atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere.


Figure 1. Cross section of Arctic temperature anomaly from 1000 mb (the surface) to 300 mb (roughly, the height of the top of the lower atmosphere or troposphere). Cross section is taken along the Date Line (180°W), from 60°N latitude (left side) to the North Pole (right side), for September - November for the 12-year period 1998 - 2009. Three year averages were done to reduce the amount of year-to-year noise associated with natural variation. Other cross sections along different lines of longitude show similar results, though typically with more warming aloft and less warming at the surface. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

A new atmospheric pattern emerges: the Arctic Dipole
In a 2008 article titled, Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system Zhang et al. show that the extreme loss of Arctic sea ice since 2001 has been accompanied by a radical shift of the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns, into a new mode they call the Arctic Rapid change Pattern. The new atmospheric circulation pattern has also been recognized by other researchers, who refer to it as the Arctic Dipole (Richter-Menge et al., 2009). The old atmospheric patterns that controlled Arctic weather--the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which featured air flow that tended to circle the pole, now alternate with the new Arctic Dipole pattern. The Arctic Dipole pattern features anomalous high pressure on the North American side of the Arctic, and low pressure on the Eurasian side. This results in winds blowing more from south to north, increasing transport of heat into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent (Overland et al., 2008). Overland et al., 2010 also found that the Arctic Dipole pattern tended to create an increase in easterly winds in the lower half of the atmosphere of 40% in fall, between 2002 - 2008. Fall 2008 through spring 2009 featured the old AO pattern. The new Arctic Dipole pattern re-appeared in June - July 2009, but the old AO pattern dominated in August - September, resulting in greater sea ice extent than in 2007 and 2008. The Arctic Dipole pattern was active again in October, inactive in November, and reasserted itself this December. As a result, Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum for a 10-day period in early November, increased above record lows during late November and early December, and appears poised again to reach a new record minimum later this December (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Sea ice extent in the Arctic for this year (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (green line) and 1979 - 2000 average (gray line). One could make the ice loss looks less significant by using the full satellite data record from 1979 - 2008 for the average. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic Dipole blamed for colder winters in East Asia
It turns out that the new Arctic circulation patterns help to intensify the Siberian High, a large semi-permanent region of surface high pressure prevalent in winter over Siberia. According to Honda et al. (2009), this results in increased flow of cold air out of the Arctic in early winter over eastern Russia, Japan, Korea, and eastern China, causing colder temperatures. By late winter, the pattern shifts, resulting in colder than average temperatures from East Asia to Europe.

Arctic Dipole blamed for drier winters in Northern Europe
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation--a pattern that usually brings reduced winter precipitation over Alaska and Northern Europe and increased precipitation over Southern Europe. A more negative NAO also tends to bring cold winters to eastern North America and Europe. Though it was not mentioned in the article, reduced Arctic sea ice may also cause dry early winter conditions in the U.S. and the Caribbean (Figure 3). The authors noted that strong La Niña or El Niño events can have a much larger influence on the wintertime atmospheric circulation, which will overshadow the changes due to Arctic sea ice loss.


Figure 3. Difference in early winter precipitation (November - January) between five years that had low Arctic sea ice (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009), and five years that had unusually high Arctic sea ice extent (1981, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1993). Note that low sea ice may be responsible for dry conditions in early winter for the Caribbean and most of the U.S.

Commentary
Arctic sea ice loss appears to have created a new atmospheric circulation pattern that brings more warm air in the Arctic, creating a positive feedback loop that causes even more sea ice loss. This feedback loop increases the likelihood that an ice-free Arctic in the summer will indeed come by 2030, as many Arctic experts are predicting. It's worth noting that such an atmospheric circulation shift was not predicted by the climate models. Indeed, the loss of Arctic sea ice over the past three years exceeds what any of our models were predicting (Figure 4). While we can rightly criticize these models for their inaccuracy, we should realize that they are just as capable of making errors not in our favor as they are of making errors in our favor.


Figure 4. Arctic sea ice extent from observations (thick orange line) and 13 model forecasts used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (light lines). The thick black line is the multi-model ensemble mean, with the standard deviation plotted as a dashed black line. Image has been updated to include the observed 2008 and 2009 measurements. None of the models predicted the record 2007 sea ice loss. Image credit: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast by Stroeve et al., 2007.

References
Francis, J.A., W. Chan, D.J. Leathers, J.R. Miller, and D.E. Veron, 2009, "Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent", Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009. Influence of low Arctic sea - ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., M. Wang, and S. Salo, 2008: The recent Arctic warm period, Tellus, 60A, 589.597.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1–9.

Richter-Menge, J., and J.E. Overland, Eds., 2009: Arctic Report Card 2009, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard.

Simmonds, I., and K. Keay (2009), Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19715, doi:10.1029/2009GL039810.

Wu, B., J. Wang, and J. E. Walsh, 2006: Dipole anomaly in the winter Arctic atmosphere and its association with sea ice motion. J. Climate, 19, 210-225.

Zhang, X., A. Sorteberg, J. Zhang, R. Gerdes, and J. C. Comiso (2008), Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035607.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 839 - 789

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Quoting auburn:


Still coming down here also...I cant even go out and get wood for the fire(I might melt)and it cold...


Witch? That's okay. Need some "white" magic; make rain stop.

Anybody got a sand-bagging station going?

Anyway, Auburn, please feel free to take down the AWESOME pic of Miz Gaga if you feel you should. I'll post when I learn how and take the heat!! Thanks again. Oh, and I wu'ed you, but no hurry at all. You guys got flooding event going on.
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting xcool:
Old Town Slidell, me

cool. My grandma lives on William Tell St.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

That is horrendous.
I've seen NM when it got it's entire annual rainfall in 1 day...that was "just" somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-12 inches.
I know you all can handle more, but not as much as in your post.

Oh, that depends on where you are. One of the reasons I live where I do is because of the impossibility of flooding. We got 12 inches in ~6 hours once...no standing water anywhere within 1/4 miles of the house...

The 4 per hour rain rate? Well, that does happen here a few times a year. Not that abnormal. What is abnormal, at least a little is our soil moisture.

Since Nov 30, the change in soil moisture went from normal to exceedingly wet. More so in NOLA than points north and northwest.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
836. xcool
Old Town Slidell, me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
835. auburn (Mod)
Quoting xcool:
my steet flood now oh wow


Still coming down here also...I cant even go out and get wood for the fire(I might melt)and it cold...
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 12/0932 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.4S 174.6E AT
120600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.

ORAGNISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH INCREASE IN CONVECTION
IN THE LAST 24 HRS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A 250 HPA TROUGH IN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE SOUTH. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
DIRECTS A SOUTHEAST SURGE AND A MOONSON NORTHWEST SURGE TO THE NORTH.
TD01F IS STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT SOUTHEAST
INTO AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.

Gale Warning 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 12/1928 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.3S 175.5E AT 121800 UTC.
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 MILES TO 150 MILES AWAY FROM
THE CENTRE IN SECTOR, NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
And it looks like some places down there got those 2 inches in 30 minutes.
4 per hour rain rate...

That is horrendous.
I've seen NM when it got it's entire annual rainfall in 1 day...that was "just" somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-12 inches.
I know you all can handle more, but not as much as in your post.
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918




Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST [7:30 am WDT] Sunday 13 December 2009

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to
WA/NT Border.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Mitchell Plateau.

At 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST] a developing Tropical Low was estimated to be just
off the Northern Territory coast, 190 kilometres southwest of Darwin and 325
kilometres east northeast of Kalumburu and moving southwest at 6 kilometres per
hour.

The tropical low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during today as
it moves further into the Timor Sea.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected on the coast between
the WA/NT border and Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia late Sunday or early
Monday. These may increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per
hour during Monday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected in the far north Kimberley region later today and may
cause localised flooding.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between the Northern Territory border and Kuri Bay should
listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 am CST [5:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.5 degrees South 129.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour, and intensifying
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Sunday 13 December[9:30 am WST
Sunday 13 December].
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
831. xcool
my steet flood now oh wow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
830. auburn (Mod)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
822. Auburn, YOU ROCK! ROFL, Thank YOU!


I can tell ya how to do it...but you have to mail me...I feel a ban coming on...LOL
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
And it looks like some places down there got those 2 inches in 30 minutes.
4 per hour rain rate...
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting xcool:
AwakeInMaryland lolol


Seriously, I hope everyone will be okay and SAFE. These postings are worrisome!
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
827. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number EIGHTEEN
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER WARD (BOB05-2009)
23:30 PM IST December 13 2009
===========================================

Subject: Cyclonic storm over the southwest Bay of Bengal weakened into a deep depression:

At 18:00 PM UTC, The cyclonic storm over southwest Bay of Bengal moved southwards and weakened into a deep depression over the same region. Deep Depression, Former Ward lays centered near 9.5N 83.5E, about 350 km east-northeast of Jaffna (Sri Lanka), 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 450 km east-northeast of Pamban.

The system is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near 9.0N around noon, today. It is then likely to emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban later tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
822. Auburn, YOU ROCK! ROFL, Thank YOU!
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
825. xcool
AwakeInMaryland lolol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BBL, ya'll. Gotta run to the store.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
823. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorlogical Service
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number 1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
6:00 AM FST December 13 2009
============================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE FIJI GROUP. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ROTUMA.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 01 (997 hPa) located at 13.3S 175.5E is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations.

Organization improved significantly in the last 24 hours. System lies under upper diffluent region. Outflow good to north and east. Dry air entrainment from north. Warming central overcast evident. Primary band to east continuing peeling off. Depression moving into decreasing shear. TD01F is steered by northwest deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak based on 0.4 wrap on LOG10 Spiral, Yielding T2.5

T2.5/2.5/1.0/24HRS.

Most global model agree on intensification in short term along a southeast track. The potential for this depression to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is MODERATE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
822. auburn (Mod)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Yes, it's Lady Gaga in a Reindeer Hat!
Well, thank you, it soothes my ego, what's left of it, to know I might not be totally incompetent!


This one?


Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
Quoting xcool:
northwood dr and LENWOOD

PARTY at xcool's girlfriend's place! BYOB.

Pls. bring dive suits/swimming trunks, wet vacs, extra towels, etc. Sump pump provider and installer drinks free.

xcool please bring your gumbo. You cook; I'll pay for fixin's!
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Its a mess. Water everywhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
819. auburn (Mod)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Are you going to use it? I'm talking about the telescope specifications themselves, not the box that contains it.


Equatorial Refractor ...Model #6336...its from the 70s I think...its pretty big
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
818. xcool
pumps working hard rigth now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:


Is it the lady with the horns?its hard to post those type in pics...the are Java or something like that...


Yes, it's Lady Gaga in a Reindeer Hat!
Well, thank you, it soothes my ego, what's left of it, to know I might not be totally incompetent!
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
NOLA and Metairie pumps cannot handle more than one inch per hour (especially with saturated ground we have now)

Much of the 2 inch per hour areas passed over NOLA a while ago:


This is a street in Metairie (~10 miles west of downtown NOLA):
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting auburn:


Ya lost me...its in a big ol wooden velvet lined box if that helps any


Are you going to use it? I'm talking about the telescope specifications themselves, not the box that contains it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
814. xcool
northwood dr and LENWOOD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
813. auburn (Mod)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Hey, at least YOU can post a weather map -- TWICE, once for "Old" eyes, LOL, thnx. for that.

I have tried and tried to post pic. 1 in this series of pics...would someone tell me how, WU if too long for blog...or post this pic for my challenged self?

It's a funny pic for the season, and Admin isn't banning them...yet(?)

Link

OH, thanks in advance!


Is it the lady with the horns?its hard to post those type in pics...they are Java or something like that...
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
Quoting xcool:
My Girlfriend streetflood

Huntwyck?
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
811. xcool
My Girlfriend streetflood
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
810. auburn (Mod)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I'm not an expert on telescopes, only an amateur astronomer. However, I should be able to help you if you send me WU Mail. There are plenty of great planets and deep-sky objects to find in the night sky, but it also helps to know the aperture (width of lens or mirror) of the scope.


Ya lost me...its in a big ol wooden velvet lined box if that helps any
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
Quoting auburn:


Yea I am just a blogger...But I have had a blast here today...and learned a lot...so you Geeks better watch out!!!I am know as an overachiever...hahahahaha...(now to learn to type and spell...hummm)


Hey, at least YOU can post a weather map -- TWICE, once for "Old" eyes, LOL, thnx. for that.

I have tried and tried to post pic. 1 in this series of pics...would someone tell me how, WU if too long for blog...or post this pic for my challenged self?

It's a funny pic for the season, and Admin isn't banning them...yet(?)

Link

OH, thanks in advance!
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
BTW, I'm going to start my own blog soon, so you can comment on my posts directly. Global weather patterns are likely to be disrupted within a week, so cold temps for the south are likely. The computer models are inconsistent likely because they don't know what to do with the self-modifying erratic ocean and air temperatures, especially when it comes to storms.
If u are going to do a regular discussion of the S hemisphere's tropical wx, I'll definitely check it out. I can add u to my shortlist for SIndian, Oz, and SPac info....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:
743 C cat

Tell me bro.. is there anyone on this planet that would be a credible source to you that didn't agree with you? What exactly would BE credible to you. No matter who posts what, you always find a way to dismiss it as junk. Do you think that the AP is in cahoots with someone.. and how aboiut the moderate scientists they had check their work? Not one shred of evidence has been presented at this point that gives any credence to the wild claims of the thieves who stole someone else's mail. The out of context attacks have been addressed and context explanations have been delivered.. I'm not the brightest bulb in the box, but try as I might, I cannot find anything other than stupid statements written to friends and colleagues. And, as I said, as Doctor Masters said, there ARE some questions, but it sure seems to me that they are dodging them.. they are addressing them one at a time.

Like you, I realize that this stuff will be used to try and take our money away.. but that doesn't make the conclusions untrue.. it means that politicians will manipulate their info to serve their business masters. I've said it before, and was ignored, much as this will likely be.. the answer is reward green behavior, not punish the current status quo. No cap and trade, no carbon credits, no further burden upon our crippled economy. Subsidize none carbon introducing energies and reward those that use it and reduce their carbon footprint... again, IMO, reward, not tax is the answer.

Seeing as how the scientists themselves admitted to destroying the original data, and that the data had been 'homogenized', why should I lend any credence to their claims?

After all, Aristotle once said, Liars when they speak the truth are not believed.

Years ago we stood by as NOAA admitted to altering data and since it was about the weather, we gave them great latitude with the so-called truth in the data.

Today they, the AGW aristocracy, wants to alter our lives for their own financial reward, with altered climate data at that!!!

I think that as long as the AGW response is it to minimize alternative observations, I will do the same in return. Respond to absurdity with absurdity.

You wrote..."the answer is reward green behavior, not punish" it.

Now that is a great idea.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:
AstroHurricane001...I have this cool telescope I dont know how to use...can I email you some times for some help?its pretty big...if I cant figure it out soon I am going to make a Cherry picker out of the tri-pod that came with it!


I'm not an expert on telescopes, only an amateur astronomer. However, I should be able to help you if you send me WU Mail. There are plenty of great planets and deep-sky objects to find in the night sky, but it also helps to know the aperture (width of lens or mirror) of the scope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
805. auburn (Mod)
AstroHurricane001...I have this cool telescope I dont know how to use...can I email you some times for some help?its pretty big...if I cant figure it out soon I am going to make a Cherry picker out of the tri-pod that came with it!
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
Quoting Drakoen:


The 06z and 18z runs have not been similar to the more reliable 00z and 12z runs.

Yep. That has been a comment circulating around and I agree. The 06 and 18 have been diverging a lot from the 0 and 12 Z runs past ~5 days out. Even seems worse than usual.

Once they agree, then it might be time to begin planning for the possibility of whatever is forecasts.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link

Link above is a 2 day, 4 map panel from GFS. Looks like a major snow storm for TX on 12-28-09.


The GFS 18z brings 5 Pacific storms to California within the next 16 days. All of them end up dumping snow on the US Midwest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
802. xcool
lol haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
801. auburn (Mod)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
BTW, I'm going to start my own blog soon, so you can comment on my posts directly. Global weather patterns are likely to be disrupted within a week, so cold temps for the south are likely. The computer models are inconsistent likely because they don't know what to do with the self-modifying erratic ocean and air temperatures, especially when it comes to storms.


Well get on it...start that blog!!!
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
800. auburn (Mod)
Quoting xcool:
lolol i.m justold Geeks dnot hurt me lol


I am old too...bans dont even bother me any more...been here too long I think...LOL
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
799. auburn (Mod)
Quoting RMM34667:
BURRR... I hope I get one of the snuggle (blanket with arms) thingy for xmas.. and I secretly wish for a few snow flakes in Tampa for xmas!! All the cold and snow talk makes me homesick for Boston!


I think I might like one of those also...hummm...man I am getting old I think...
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
BTW, I'm going to start my own blog soon, so you can comment on my posts directly. Global weather patterns are likely to be disrupted within a week, so cold temps for the south are likely. The computer models are inconsistent likely because they don't know what to do with the self-modifying erratic ocean and air temperatures, especially when it comes to storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
797. xcool
lolol i.m justold Geeks dnot hurt me lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Forecast GFS 1800Z for 12-28-2009

Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
BURRR... I hope I get one of the snuggle (blanket with arms) thingy for xmas.. and I secretly wish for a few snow flakes in Tampa for xmas!! All the cold and snow talk makes me homesick for Boston!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
794. auburn (Mod)
Quoting xcool:
oh


Yea I am just a blogger...But I have had a blast here today...and learned a lot...so you Geeks better watch out!!!I am know as an overachiever...hahahahaha...(now to learn to type and spell...hummm)
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
793. xcool
oh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
792. xcool


buzzzz cold cold
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bgoney:


You mean we had climate change (per you're FEW examples) before Man-made cc , now thats interesting
Wow. Way to cherry-pick my comment.....

Really wish u would read, like, the ENTIRE comment, which would cause u to note, that hey, I'm not particularly supporting AGW.....

Really, really unbiased there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
790. auburn (Mod)
Quoting xcool:
auburn why ??.


I never come to this blog"EVER"and I know nothing about weather"NOTHING"...Bordonaro and some others have helped me Fake it all day...LOL
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50801
Quoting Patrap:
Later JF,,my cue to split just arrived.

And it aint here..LOL


The rain is crazy 11 inches so far this month here, 4.36 today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 839 - 789

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
45 ° F
Nublado