Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:53 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009 +3
The embattled director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU), Dr. Phil Jones, announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director. An independent review of his conduct in light of the emails illegally hacked from his computers last month is in progress. In a press release, Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support".

The University and the police are investigating the break-in, and it is currently unknown if this was the act of an insider or an external break-in. I think it is highly unlikely this was the work of an insider in a whistle-blower type of action, since a computer at realclimate.org was hacked into the same week (via a computer in Turkey), and the criminal attempted to upload the emails stolen from CRU to the realclimate.org server. This is not the sort of action a whistleblower would do. Dr. Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org said in a comment yesterday that the CRU break-in appeared to have been done from the outside, into a backup mail server. It is unlikely the hacker acted alone, since hackers aren't typically intimately familiar with the details of the climate change science debate. The emails and code stolen were selectively culled by someone who appeared to have considerable expertise in climate science.

What did Dr. Jones do wrong?
So, what did Dr. Jones do wrong? For starters, he should have confronted the allegations raised by his critics immediately and talked candidly to the press about some of the specific accusations being made. For example, one of the emails contained the statement that he would like to "redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is" to exclude two questionable papers from the IPCC report. Well, that's not something a good scientist should seriously advocate, and is an impossibility, in any case. No one can redefine the peer-reviewed literature, since the rules for this are well-established an not subject to change. When I read the comment in the context it was made, it reads as a joke. There is no discussion in the hacked emails about how to go about redefining the peer-reviewed literature. In the end, the two papers Jones was referring to with this comment, McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003), ended up being cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. Those intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming are spinning the comment differently, creating a controversy about something that is impossible to do, and was not being seriously suggested. Jones should have immediately spoken up to quash the hype on this comment.

The "trick" to "hide the decline"
Another area of concern is over a graph Dr. Jones helped construct in 1999 showing the "hockey stick" of Earth's surface temperature going back 1,000 years. This graph combined instrumental measurements made since the 1800s with older paleoclimate data (including data from tree rings) to show a continuous 1,000 year record of Earth's temperatures. The paleoclimate data after 1960 show a bogus decline in Earth's temperatures that does not agree with what modern thermometers have been measuring, due to a well-known variation in tree ring thickness as a function of time, referred to as "the decline". Thus, Jones elected to toss out the bogus paleoclimate data (using a "trick" to "hide the decline") rather than present it in the graph. The graph was not properly labeled to show this was done, so viewers of the graph would have had needed to be familiar with a 1998 paper published in Nature or the 1999 paper referenced in the caption on the graph, which explained this well-known data issue. The graph that Jones used his "trick" on was put into a 1999 report called the "WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate". The report was given to policy makers, but was never published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. No reputable climate scientist believes that the paleoclimate data since 1960 is of higher quality than the instrumental record (this is discussed in detail in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC report). In order to make the "hokey stick" graph less confusing, removing "the decline" from the tree ring data is a reasonable thing to do--provided one labels the graph properly. The graph was not properly labeled. Does Jones' "trick" and failure to properly label the graph constitute data falsification, or was it merely sloppy science? The hacked emails contain no suggestions that the "trick" was done to intentionally fool people, and the "trick" never appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, including the IPCC reports. In Dr. Jones' words, "This is well-known and is called the "decline" or "divergence". The use of the term "hiding the decline" was in an email written in haste. CRU has not sought to hide the decline. Indeed, CRU has published a number of articles that both illustrate, and discuss the implications of, this recent tree-ring decline, including the article that is listed in the legend of the WMO Statement figure".




Figure 1. The WMO 1999 "hockey stick" figure (top) with climate reconstructions and instrumental temperatures merged, and a version (bottom) with the climate reconstructions (coloured) and instrumental temperatures (annual & summer in black) shown separately. Note "the decline" in the temperature obtained from tree ring data (green curve) in the bottom curve. Image credit: University of East Anglia.

Global warming contrarians are spinning the "trick" as reason to discredit the "hockey stick", claiming that the data was falsified to hide the fact that tree rings were telling the real story. Since the hockey stick was falsified, some claim, the entire science behind human-caused global warming needs to be questioned. This is plain ludicrous. The graph was never published in a scientific journal. Several updated versions of the "hockey stick" graph have been published in the ten years since the disputed graph was produced, and the "hockey stick" can be reproduced in essentially the same form excluding the controversial tree rings, using other paleoclimate data such as boreholes (See Mann et al., 2008, Figure 2). Furthermore, the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused global warming is not based solely upon the "hockey stick" and the CRU data used for the last 150 years of the hockey stick graph. There are three separate data sets of global temperatures maintained by NASA, the CRU, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, that all show essentially the same global warming. We also have evidence from nature herself in the form of plants and animals expanding their ranges poleward, the record loss of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and record loss of multi-year Arctic sea ice this year, the shrinking of mountain glaciers, reductions in the length of freeze season in many Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers, the shifting of spring blooms earlier in most regions of the world, and on and on and on. Again, Jones should have spoken up immediately to kill the ridiculous hype being pushed by global warming contrarians about the importance of a 10-year old graph that is now scientifically irrelevant, and was never published.


Figure 2. The "hockey stick" of global temperature anomalies since 300 A.D., as published in a 2008 paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Mann et al.. Even if one excludes tree rings (blue curve), the hockey stick looks the same.

Resistance to releasing data to other researchers
The hacked emails also show that Dr. Jones resisted releasing his data to contrarians and urged others to delete emails regarding Freedom Of Information (FOI) related requests. Many countries protect their weather data under an international agreement called World Meteorological Organization Resolution 40, which prohibits the data from being made public (this is why wunderground can't give out the UKMET model forecasts on our web site, for example). About 5% of the CRU data fell in that category, making release illegal. However, deleting emails related to FOI requests is inadvisable and implies one has something to hide. The investigation should certainly pursue the issue of whether Dr. Jones properly handled the requests to turn over his data to outside researchers. Ideally, weather data documenting Earth's climate history should be free to everyone on the planet (I am not a big fan of WMO Resolution 40). However, another aspect to this issue is the time it takes for the scientists involved to prepare the data for release. Large, complicated data sets require extensive documentation and access to related computer codes in order to process them, and making the data available to every amateur investigator interested in the data puts an unfair burden on the scientists who maintain the data sets. In particular, an amateur climate science investigator named Stephen McIntyre, who runs the web site Climate Audit, has created such an issue. McIntyre, a retired mining executive and an investor, is not a professional scientist, but has been successful identifying several technical errors made in the published literature. He has also generated a huge amount of misleading and incorrect information over the years, and has done a tremendous amount of damage to the understanding of climate science. McIntyre is intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming--presumably for ideological reasons, since he has no obvious ties to the fossil fuel industry--and has generated a large number of Freedom of Information requests to further his cause. One of the hacked emails, from Dr. Ben Santer, complained that McIntyre's FOI requests were intrusive and unreasonable with no scientific justification or explanation given, and appeared to be a calculated strategy to divert Santer's attention and focus away from research. It's worth reading Santer's reaction to the hacked email affair to learn more. Given such tactics by McIntyre, Dr. Jones' resistance to FOI requests from McIntyre is understandable, but appears to have been poorly handled.

The science of human-caused global warming remains unaffected
None of the hacked emails reveal any conspiracy to publish falsified or "fudged" material in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The science of human-caused global warming will require no revision as a result of this affair. Baseless accusations of fraud, data manipulation, and conspiracy against climate change scientists stemming from the hacked emails are being massively hyped by the Manufactured Doubt industry in an effort to discredit climate scientists, since no flaw with the science can be found. Most of the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad, so if you can create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion, you can win--or at least buy time, lots of it. The hacked email affair is all about politics, not science. Dr. Jones is an excellent scientist, but unfortunately was over-matched as a politician. It was hardly a fair fight--one scientist against the political might of the mightiest PR campaign against science ever waged, armed with some selectively culled stolen emails taken out of context.

Other posts in this series
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Next post
I'm working on a post called, "Don't shoot the messenger", and plan to run this Sunday or Monday.

Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, will be in Copenhagen for Monday's start to the crucial COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. Be sure to tune into his blog for updates on the talks. Wunderground has provided financial support for several University of Michigan students to attend the talks, and I may be featuring portions of their blogs over the coming weeks.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
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501. MILLERTIME1 11:46 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
Looks like another snow storm in the south early next week.
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
502. Grothar 11:48 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
Quoting NRAamy:
never heard of Surge or Urge Soda....

can't he just get some Jolt Cola?


I drink Urge soda all the time. You can get it in any store in Oslo, Bergen or Trondheim. It is everywhere!!! It is his problem he is stuck in Indiana!!! lol
Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19516
503. aquak9 11:48 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
thanks, ya'll. Ems has a long evening, and heard of bridge closures. She's not home...yet.

thanks again ya'll.

Hey Bordonaro? will you please wu-mail me all that bad stuff about omaha steaks? thanks!
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007
504. NRAamy 11:48 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
Grothar...what is in Urge Soda?
Member Since: Enero 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
505. Bordonaro 11:49 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I had to look it up; it has some cr-azy Wiki history!

Heck, you know I thought Red Bull and Vodka.
Then I remembered how old he was.
Things were WAY different when I was 18.


Red Bull & Vodka. Been there, done that ONCE. I did not like the effect.
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
507. AwakeInMaryland 11:51 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
Quoting Bordonaro:


Red Bull & Vodka. Been there, done that ONCE. I did not like the effect.

Twice. 1st time was fun. Second time...a couple unwelcome effects. Any more would be TMI.
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
508. AwakeInMaryland 11:52 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Twice. 1st time was fun. Second time...a couple unwelcome effects. Any more about that would be TMI!


LIKE DOUBLE POSTING! I'm having flashbacks!
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
509. pottery 11:54 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
BBC News--
Several Countries are saying that the leaked E-Mails from CRU will have a negative impact on the Copenhagen Talks. It's an interesting article.
ESPECIALLY THE COMMENTS FROM SAUDI ARABIA. edited.
Member Since: Octubre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
510. AwakeInMaryland 11:54 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
Quoting Grothar:


I drink Urge soda all the time. You can get it in any store in Oslo, Bergen or Trondheim. It is everywhere!!! It is his problem he is stuck in Indiana!!! lol

Is there such a thing as a male Be-atch?
Poor baby boy isn't even here to defend himself.
YET...!
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
511. aquak9 11:55 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
awake- that one site from NWS, takes you yo another link, wow that's pretty cool there.

thanks ya'll.
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007
512. tornadofan 11:59 PM GMT en Diciembre 03, 2009    
Quoting beell:
The prospect of two consecutive early December snowfalls in S TX has done irreparable damage to the GW cause. More than all the hacked e-mails and cherry-picked data one could gather.

You will have to pry the snow shovels from our dead frozen texan fingers before we ever believe again. Remember the Alamo!


Beell - you have manufactured doubt for me that AGW may not be real. Hmmm...
Member Since: Abril 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
513. AwakeInMaryland 12:01 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting aquak9:
awake- that one site from NWS, takes you yo another link, wow that's pretty cool there.

thanks ya'll.

I didn't get that far! Glad it's fun in there.

Okay, I really have to make dinner.
Pottery, I've seen some of the int'l. news.
I guess we have to hope that ultimately we will be better off for truth (when we finish peeling the onion, mixed metaphor?) and transparency in science and government.
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
514. HadesGodWyvern 12:04 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
6:00 AM FST December 4 2009
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01 (1004 hPa) located at 8.0S 178.0E is reported as moving slowly southwest. There has been no improvement in the cloud organization around the system for the last 24 hours. Sea surface temperature around 30C. System lies in an area of low shear and is moving into an area of decreasing shear. TD01F is located under an upper diffluent flow. Global models continue to move this system southwest without deepening it.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW
Member Since: Mayo 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686
515. beell 12:09 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
And another thing-this guy just does not look like a criminal! Could they have found a better picture?
Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12872
516. pearlandaggie 12:23 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
LOL @ 512. too funny!
Member Since: Septiembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
517. atmoaggie 12:42 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting beell:
And another thing-this guy just does not look like a criminal! Could they have found a better picture?

LOL.

Hold on now, though. Only the 2-bit criminals look the part, usually. The truly devious are more likely to look like Mr Rodgers or Pee Wee Herman...
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
518. TampaSpin 12:48 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    


Round 2 coming
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
519. Canekid98 12:53 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
sorry but, can this conversation be about Houston and the 3-5 inches wev'e never seen before and are expected tomm.?
520. xcool 12:55 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12 CORRIDOR AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX MAY START
AS EARLY AS 3 PM WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 6 PM. ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND THROUGH THE RIVER PARISHES...A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 9 PM WITH A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE AREA OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
AROUND 9 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DONALDSONVILLE
LOUISIANA TO SAUCIER MISSISSIPPI. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CAN ALSO
FREEZE ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS LEADING TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THAT ARE GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND ST. TAMMANY PARISH.


000
FXUS64 KLIX 040042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SLEET. ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW AS THERE IS
NOT A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER OF FREEZING TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
REFREEZE ANY SNOW THAT MELTS AS IT IS FALLING. NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501
521. Canekid98 12:58 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    

Rain/Snow
Likely
Hi 42 °F Friday
Night

Chance
Snow
Lo 29 °F Saturday


Sunny

Hi 49 °F Saturday
Night

Slight Chc
Showers
Lo 37 °F Sunday


Chance
Showers
Hi 56 °F Sunday
Night

Slight Chc
Showers
Lo 46 °F Monday


Partly
Sunny
Hi 61 °F Monday
Night

Slight Chc
Showers
Lo 52 °F


Hazardous weather condition(s):


Freeze Warning
Winter Storm Watch



522. Canekid98 12:59 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
119 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CDT FRIDAY UNTIL 12 AM
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A COLD RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SNOW
DURING THE DAY. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE BAN OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ALLUDE TO THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST.

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-040400-
/O.EXA.KHGX.WS.A.0002.091204T1200Z-091205T0600Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON...WINNIE
119 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE MORNING BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 30S
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THE RAIN WILL GET A LITTLE HEAVIER
TOWARD NOON AND BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW. PERIODS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GROWING
CONSENSUS THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIE ALONG
AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 59. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES SHOW SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME ISOLATED SNOW TOTALS APPROACHING 5 INCHES. MOST OF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THIS
SITUATION IS STILL IN FLUX AND FORECASTS COULD CHANGE RADICALLY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS...WINTER
WEATHER WATCHES...OR WARNINGS. THE THREAT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
END OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SO ANY RESIDUAL WET SPOTS
WILL FREEZE AND ELEVATED BRIDGES WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME ICY SPOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WATCH AREA MAY BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE ON ROADWAYS...
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. EXERCISE
CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY. MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF
TRAVEL IS NECESSARY.
523. Canekid98 1:00 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
743 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM NOON
FRIDAY UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY...

.AN ARCTIC AI MASS IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY BRINGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-032145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FZ.W.0003.091204T1800Z-091205T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
743 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL AND INLAND COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL TO AT
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LATEST PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD EXPERIENCE FROM 10 TO 12 HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FOR OTHER LOCATIONS...THE APPROXIMATE HOURS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AS FOLLOWS: WESTERN LOCATIONS 6 TO 8
HOURS... CENTRAL LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METRO 3 TO 5
HOURS...NEAR COASTAL AREA WITH 1 TO 3 HOURS. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING SOON AFTER SUNRISE WHERE
SNOW DOES NOT COVER THE GROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
524. alaina1085 1:10 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
yall think this snow will stick to the ground?

Rita, take pics and post them man! Im totally jelous! Hopefully here in SELA we get some good snow.
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234
526. AstroHurricane001 1:13 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting tornadofan:


Beell - you have manufactured doubt for me that AGW may not be real. Hmmm...

Cold weather in any specific place, in this case Texas, does not imply that global warming is false. Cold weather and snow in Texas are expected effects of a strong El Nino and the strong phase of the Arctic Oscillation, both of which are exacerbated by global warming. Computer models are predicting more snow for Texas this week and the altered weather patterns due to El Nino, Typhoon Nida, and the effects of Nida on global ocean surface temperatures are the exact cause.
Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
527. AstroHurricane001 1:16 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting beell:
And another thing-this guy just does not look like a criminal! Could they have found a better picture?


Only to a Conservative person.
Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811
528. alaina1085 1:17 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Evening Storm
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234
529. Bordonaro 1:19 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
The latest weather radar from NWS Ft Worth, TX show precipitation to our NW. The precipitation to our NW is Virga, precip falling from the clouds and evaporating before reaching the ground.

Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
530. AstroHurricane001 1:21 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Obama science advisers grilled over hacked e-mails
By SETH BORENSTEIN,
AP Science Writer Thu Dec 3, 9:17 am ET

I can't even make myself read it, but if anyone wants to, knock yourself out.

Link


The first two paragraphs:

WASHINGTON – House Republicans pointed to controversial e-mails leaked from climate scientists and said it was evidence of corruption. Top administration scientists looking at the same thing found no such sign, saying it doesn't change the fact that the world is warming.

The e-mails from a British university's climate center were obtained by computer hackers and posted online about two weeks ago. Climate change skeptics contend the messages reveal that researchers manipulated and suppressed data and stifled dissent, and conservative bloggers are dubbing it "Climategate."


This shows that Conservatives continue to try to find evidence that global warming is false in order to feed their denial and shut themselves out from all evidence, while Democrats are open to evidence have long accepted the fact that global warming is real and primarily human-caused and will not accept simple emails as falsifiers of all previous evidence of global warming.
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531. amd 1:24 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
3 to 5 inches of snow possibly in Houston tomorrow? Sounds good to this transplanted yankee.

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532. Bordonaro 1:25 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting aquak9:
thanks, ya'll. Ems has a long evening, and heard of bridge closures. She's not home...yet.

thanks again ya'll.

Hey Bordonaro? will you please wu-mail me all that bad stuff about omaha steaks? thanks!


I was quoting someone else, I don't know much about that. I gather you can Google, "Bad ingredients in Omaha Steaks.
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533. Bordonaro 1:27 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:


Talk about sending your body mixed messages! :O

That's exactly the problem. Nothing like feeling all wired up and intoxicated at the same time.
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534. Bordonaro 1:29 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


LIKE DOUBLE POSTING! I'm having flashbacks!

That's like the cartoon on Qubo, "Jason Two-Two", a lil kid who, when he's nervous, repeats everything twice.
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
535. stormygace 1:30 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
"One of the hacked emails, from Dr. Ben Santer, complained that McIntyre's FOI requests were intrusive and unreasonable with no scientific justification or explanation given, and appeared to be a calculated strategy to divert Santer's attention and focus away from research."

Hmmm... FOI requests are ... what? FOI requests are ALWAYS considered intrusive by someone! That's precisely why the FOI Act came into existence; to give a venue for request of information from Federal entities who are loathe to share the information! This will be an interesting reason to begin shelving those requests in a great big old circular file!

"Given such tactics by McIntyre, Dr. Jones' resistance to FOI requests from McIntyre is understandable, but appears to have been poorly handled." As in, ah, ignored by one enjoying Federal largess? Ah, yes, now it is acceptable to have opinion rendered on the legitimacy of the request & determine whether the request is to be honored. New Think, Big Think, someone's thinking for "the good of everyone" eh? This will certainly be used as precedent!

Seems a lot of raw data that ought to be available under "Materials and Methods" is difficult to access; but really reads the "Materials and Methods" section anyway? Especially when so many are so willing to start at the "Conclusion"
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536. atmoaggie 1:35 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Cold weather in any specific place, in this case Texas, does not imply that global warming is false. Cold weather and snow in Texas are expected effects of a strong El Nino and the strong phase of the Arctic Oscillation, both of which are exacerbated by global warming. Computer models are predicting more snow for Texas this week and the altered weather patterns due to El Nino, Typhoon Nida, and the effects of Nida on global ocean surface temperatures are the exact cause.

I can tell ya, beell and tornadodude don't need the lecture. There is some dry humor going on here you didn't catch.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Only to a Conservative person.

Whether it is haste, glasses of a certain color, or the extra CO2, I am afraid you misread his post...
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537. Bordonaro 1:35 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
538 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS... LIGHT SNOW AT KACT AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE KDFW TRACON FRIDAY.

AN INTENSE WINTER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREAS THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH TEXAS
ON FRIDAY WITH MAIN ENERGY AND SNOW SPREADING OUT OF NEW MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT AND ARCING THROUGH TEXAS ALONG/NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SNOWFALL FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
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538. beell 1:35 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Only to a Conservative person.


So he looks like a criminal to a liberal?
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539. beell 1:37 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Dry for sure, atmo.
The humor part? Well...to some.
Thanks!
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540. Patrap 1:43 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
18Z NAM

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541. geepy86 1:45 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Right now I would rather have snow than skeeters.
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542. tornadodude 1:45 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting Grothar:


I drink Urge soda all the time. You can get it in any store in Oslo, Bergen or Trondheim. It is everywhere!!! It is his problem he is stuck in Indiana!!! lol


hey now! All we have in Indiana is corn, and more corn, and the Colts haha

so hook a brother up! :P
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543. Bordonaro 1:45 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    


Seems kinda' weird to see Winter Storm Watches in TX and LA, now doesn't it?
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544. tornadodude 1:50 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting Bordonaro:


Seems kinda' weird to see Winter Storm Watches in TX and LA, now doesn't it?


totally not fair! we havent had any snow this year in Indiana, but, in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, you guys get snow! heck, Dallas has had more snow than I have had this year! It's so bizarre.
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545. Bordonaro 1:50 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
It may not look like much right now, but in about 12 hours, it's gonna be full of snow over the Southern parts of TX!!

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546. beell 1:53 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
540.
We sure ought to be able to get a couple of degrees of evaporative cooling out of that Pat.
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547. Bordonaro 1:53 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting Bordonaro:



Quoting tornadodude:


totally not fair! we havent had any snow this year in Indiana, but, in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, you guys get snow! heck, Dallas has had more snow than I have had this year! It's so bizarre.


Blame it on "El Nino", yeah, yeah :0)!!
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548. unf97 1:54 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Good evening!

Well, for all of our bloggers in SE TX and into LA and MS, get ready for a significant snow event in the next 24-36 hours. Things are coming together nicely aiready with the dynamical pattern. Looks as if the GFS will nail this system. GFS has handled this developing system well all week long.

I may see some of the white stuff this weekend. I am driving up to Charlotte for the weeekend, and that Low will move off shore up the East Coast later into the weekend. They are right now calling for a raw cold day Saturday in the N.C. Piedmont, with rain and high temps in the low 40s. It will be a close call there to see if wintry precip will happen.
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549. tornadodude 1:55 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting Bordonaro:


Blame it on "El Nino", yeah, yeah :0)!!


boo! (: well enjoy it while you have it!
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550. Patrap 1:56 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting beell:
540.
We sure ought to be able to get a couple of degrees of evaporative cooling out of that Pat.


Yup..were gonna head up to Hammond and see it for sure.
Member Since: Julio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297
551. Bordonaro 1:56 AM GMT en Diciembre 04, 2009    
Quoting tornadodude:


boo! (: well enjoy it while you have it!


Well, the DFW area looks like a scattered snow flurry event. SE TX is gonna get it "GOOOOOODDD"
Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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